OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight trading was more strong gains in the crude oil market–hitting a new all-time high of $78.40 a barrel–amid tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. dollar is modestly higher versus the other major currencies. Stock indexes are firmer in early electronic trading. U.S. Treasuries are also slightly higher. Gold is trading solidly higher in early dealings. The situation in Israel and Lebanon will continue to keep traders on edge, especially heading into the weekend.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the retail sales report, import prices, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and business inventories data. The G-8 meets in Russia during the weekend.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, on short covering following recent solid losses. Bears have fresh downside technical momentum, amid record-high oil prices and heightened tensions in the Middle East. Buying interest will be limited by these factors, at least in the near term.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day today. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but has turned lower. Short-term oscillators are bullish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,242.40. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. Heavier sell stops likely reside under solid technical support at the June low of 1,229.20. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is the overnight high of 1,251.30. Light buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,255.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,254.65
1st Support:—— 1,239.65
2nd Support:—— 1,231.75
1st Resistance:— 1,262.55
2nd Resistance:— 1,277.55
September Nasdaq: Prices overnight dipped to another fresh contract low. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are fully bearish. The 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day moving averages. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bullish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,481.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,475.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,500.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at Thursday’s high of 1,519.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,498.50
1st Support:—— 1,478.25
2nd Support:—— 1,466.50
1st Resistance:— 1,510.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,530.50
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday’s low of 10,875 and then just below support at of 10,800. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 10,970 and then more buy stops just above resistance at Thursday’s high of 11,030. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average, but is also turning lower. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 10,930
1st Support:—— 10,831
2nd Support:—— 10,775
1st Resistance:— 10,986
2nd Resistance:— 11,085
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are firmer in early trading in Chicago. Technical odds are increasing that near-term lows are in place in bonds and notes. Also, the Middle East tensions will limit selling interest in the bonds again today, and heading into the weekend.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit another fresh four-week high in overnight trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are fully bullish again today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is now above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are turning bearish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107 23/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 108 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 107 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 107 even.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 107 11/32
1st Support:—– 107 6/32
2nd Support:—– 106 31/32
1st Resistance:– 107 18/32
2nd Resistance:– 107 23/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh four-week high overnight. Shorter-term oscillators are neutral to bullish today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at the overnight high of 105.14.5, and then just above resistance at 105.20.0. Shorter-term moving averages are fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, and is above the 18-day. The 9-day is now above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 105.09.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 105.00.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 105.06.0
1st Support:—— 105.03.0
2nd Support:—— 104.28.0
1st Resistance:— 105.13.0
2nd Resistance:— 105.16.0
