OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is modestly higher stock index prices. U.S. Treasury bonds are weaker in early trading, while the U.S. dollar is lower. Gold is slightly higher in early dealings.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the MBA refinancing index and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks data.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls and bears are struggling for near-term control of the markets, and trading has been choppy. We are now in the “dog days” of August, which likely means lackluster trading until the end of the month.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish. The 4-day moving average has moved below the 9-day to produce a bearish signal. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,275.90. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Tuesday’s low of 1,272.20. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday’s high of 1,287.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then heavier buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at last week’s high of 1,297.60. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,278.75
1st Support:—— 1,270.25
2nd Support:—— 1,263.75
1st Resistance:— 1,285.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,293.50
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish. The 4-day is below the 9-day moving average today, to produce a bearish signal. The 9-day moving average is still above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,482.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then heavy sell stops likely reside below support at the contract low of 1,458.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 1,508.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at this week’s high of 1,515.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,494.50
1st Support:—— 1,480.25
2nd Support:—— 1,467.75
1st Resistance:— 1,506.75
2nd Resistance:— 1,520.75
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday’s low of 11,165 and then more stops just below support at 11,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,260 and then more buy stops just above resistance at Tuesday’s high of 11,305. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish today, but the 4-day moving average is turning down for an early bearish clue. The 9-day is moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,226
1st Support:—— 11,146
2nd Support:—— 11,086
1st Resistance:— 11,286
2nd Resistance:— 11,366
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are now trading weaker in early trading in Chicago, as traders digest Tuesday’s FOMC decision.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 108 31/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 109 8/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at 108 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 108 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 109 5/32
1st Support:—– 108 23/32
2nd Support:—– 108 14/32
1st Resistance:– 109 14/32
2nd Resistance:– 109 28/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 106.14.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Tuesday’s high of 106.20.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Tuesday’s low of 106.08.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 106.14.0
1st Support:—— 106.08.0
2nd Support:—— 106.02.0
1st Resistance:— 106.20.0
2nd Resistance:— 106.26.0
