Wednesday, November 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer U.S. stock index futures prices and lower crude oil prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The strong price trends we’ve seen in many markets in recent months have turned into less-trending and more choppy and sideways markets. Choppy markets are still tradable, as traders can still spot and trade the minor price trends within the choppy trading ranges. This type of “swing trading” generally requires that the position traders shorten their trading horizons.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. The bears still have the near-term technical advantage in the indexes, even though market bottoms may be in place.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 889.40 and then at this week’s low of 883.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 911.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 926.90. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 894.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 901.00
1st Support:——– 875.05
2nd Support:——– 857.10
1st Resistance:—– 918.95
2nd Resistance:—– 944.90
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,208.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,190.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,243.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 1,261.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,231.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,280.85
1st Support:—— 1,200.20
2nd Support:—— 1,177.35
1st Resistance:— 1,253.70
2nd Resistance:— 1,284.35
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,600 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday’s low of 8,535. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 8,822 and then just above resistance at 8,900. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,777
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,665
1st Support:—— 8,507
2nd Support:—— 8,378
1st Resistance:— 8,794
2nd Resistance:— 8,952
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker early today. Bulls do still have some fresh upside technical momentum.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 27/32 and then at 117 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 9/32 and then at 118 21/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 4/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 118 4/32
1st Support:—– 117 20/32 2nd Support:—– 117 1/32
1st Resistance:– 118 23/32
2nd Resistance:– 119 7/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 116.05.0 and then at 116.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.19.0 and then at 115.15.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.27.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 115 25/32
1st Support:—– 115 14/32 2nd Support:—– 115 3/32
1st Resistance:– 116 4/32
2nd Resistance:– 116 15/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 87.93 and then at the contract high of 88.49. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.21 and then at 87.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The December Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2455 and then just below support at 1.2400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2610 and then at 1.2700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2694. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $738.40 and then at $750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $728.10 and then at $725.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $741.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Prices hit another fresh 19-month low overnight. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $60.00 and then just above resistance at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $57.70 and then more sell stops just below support at $57.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $63.12. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are neutral early today–crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S. dollar is near steady. The U.S. stock indexes are firmer. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains.
