OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The feature in overnight/early morning trading is modestly higher stock index prices. U.S. Treasury bonds are also firmer in early trading, while the U.S. dollar is steady to higher. Gold and crude oil are weaker in early trading.

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U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS

On tap today is the all-important Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, in which the Fed’s decision will be announced this afternoon. Also out is the ICSC store sales index, second-quarter non-farm labor productivity and labor costs data, and Redbook retails sales data. Also, the National Hurricane Center will issued a revised hurricane outlook for this season.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side. But we are now in the “dog days” of August, which likely means lackluster trading until the end of the month.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday’s low of 1,277.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,270.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday’s high of 1,285.60. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then heavier buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at last week’s high of 1,297.60. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:

Pivot:———— 1,281.50
1st Support:—— 1,277.50
2nd Support:—— 1,273.00
1st Resistance:— 1,286.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,290.25

September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are neutral to bullish. The 4-day is poised to move below the 9-day moving average today, to produce a bearish signal. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Monday’s low of 1,494.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at last week’s low of 1,483.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 1,515.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. Heavier buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at last week’s high of 1,538.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,503.75
1st Support:—— 1,492.75
2nd Support:—— 1,482.75
1st Resistance:— 1,513.75
2nd Resistance:— 1,524.75

September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday’s low of 11,215 and then more stops just below support at 11,161. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,300 and then heavier buy stops just above resistance at last week’s high of 11,375. Shorter-term moving averages are fully bullish today, with the 4-day moving average above the 9-day and the 18-day today. The 9-day is moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:

Pivot:———— 11,252
1st Support:—— 11,230
2nd Support:—— 11,192
1st Resistance:— 11,290
2nd Resistance:— 11,312

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

Both notes and bond prices are now trading near steady in early trading in Chicago, as traders await today’s FOMC decision. The bulls still have good upside near-term technical momentum.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Monday’s high of 109 9/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. Heavier buy stops also likely reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of 109 15/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 108 31/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 108 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 109 4/32
1st Support:—– 108 30/32
2nd Support:—– 108 26/32
1st Resistance:– 109 8/32
2nd Resistance:– 109 14/32

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 106.19.0, and then heavier buy stops are likely located just above resistance at last week’s high of 106.23.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 106.07.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:

Pivot:———— 106.14.0
1st Support:—— 106.09.0
2nd Support:—— 106.06.0
1st Resistance:— 106.17.0
2nd Resistance:— 106.22.0