October 1–Jim Wyckoff’s Early Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no real feature in overnight/early morning trading today. Stock indexes are narrowly mixed and bond prices are weaker. Crude oil and gold are firmer. The U.S. dollar is slightly lower in early trading.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap for today is the ISM manufacturing index, construction spending and pending home sales data. The big report due out this week is Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,343.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,340.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at last week’s high of 1,350.70. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at the contract high of 1,352.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,347.00
1st Support:—— 1,343.35
2nd Support:—— 1,341.35
1st Resistance:— 1,349.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,352.75
December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Friday’s low of 729.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 725.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 739.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at last week’s high of 741.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:———— 733.75
1st Support:—— 728.00
2nd Support:—— 724.00
1st Resistance:— 737.85
2nd Resistance:— 743.50
December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,725 and then more stops just below support at 11,680. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 11,808 and then more buy stops just above resistance at the contract high of 11,830. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,766
1st Support:—— 11,725
2nd Support:—— 11,700
1st Resistance:— 11,791
2nd Resistance:— 11,832
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Prices are lower in early trading in Chicago. Bulls have faded a bit and need to show soon.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 112 13/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of 112 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 112 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 24/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 112 13/32
1st Support:—– 112 1/32
2nd Support:—– 111 22/32
1st Resistance:– 112 24/32
2nd Resistance:– 113 4/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 108.02.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 108.10.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish for today. The 4-day moving average is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Friday’s low of 107.28.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 107.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 108.04.0
1st Support:—— 107.26.0
2nd Support:—— 107.19.0
1st Resistance:— 108.11.0
2nd Resistance:— 108.21.0
