OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no real feature in overnight/early morning trading. The U.S. stock indexes are narrowly mixed and crude oil prices are modestly higher. Gold is trading modestly lower. The U.S. dollar is slightly lower versus the other major currencies. U.S. Treasuries are slightly higher. In overnight news, China raised its interest rates to try to slow down its very strong economic growth.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
There are no major U.S. economic reports or government officials speaking events on tap today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning electronic trading. If the bulls can end this week on a strong note, that would suggest near-term lows are in place in the stock indexes.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning more bullish. The 4-day moving average is moving above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday’s low of 1,252.50. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under technical support at Wednesday’s low of 1,244.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at the overnight high of 1,260.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at this week’s high of 1,269.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,258.50
1st Support:—— 1,248.25
2nd Support:—— 1,242.15
1st Resistance:— 1,264.60
2nd Resistance:— 1,275.00
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still bearish. However, the 4-day is turning higher and may move above the 9-day moving average today. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at the contract low of 1,458.00. Heavier sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,450.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,486.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at this week’s high of 1,510.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,485.50
1st Support:—— 1,463.75
2nd Support:—— 1,450.00
1st Resistance:— 1,499.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,521.00
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,910 and then more stops just below support at Thursday’s low of 10,825. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 11,087 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,200. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish today, but the 4-day moving average is turning back north. The 9-day is moving below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,009
1st Support:—— 10,934
2nd Support:—— 10,889
1st Resistance:— 11,054
2nd Resistance:— 11,129
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are slightly higher in early trading in Chicago. Prices overnight hit another fresh five-week high. Follow-through buying strength again today would be significantly bullish for Treasuries.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is still above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bullish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108 3/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above solid technical resistance at the June high of 108 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 107 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Thursday’s low of 107 11/32.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 107 25/32
1st Support:—– 107 16/32
2nd Support:—– 107 2/32
1st Resistance:– 108 7/32
2nd Resistance:– 108 16/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators are bullish today. Buy stops likely reside just above resistance the overnight high of 105.24.5, and then heavier buy stops just above solid resistance at the June high of 106.03.5. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is still above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 105.17.0, and then more sell stops just below support at Thursday’s low of 105.08.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 105.17.0
1st Support:—— 105.12.0
2nd Support:—— 105.03.0
1st Resistance:— 105.26.0
2nd Resistance:— 105.31.0
