OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is a rebound in crude oil prices. Treasuries are firmer and stock indexes are slightly lower. In potential market-moving news overnight, China did raise its interest rates by around a quarter-point, in order to curb an overheating economy.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. President Bush meets with his economic advisors today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are slightly lower in early morning electronic trading, on a mild corrective pullback following solid gains this week. The bulls have good near-term upside technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average, but just barely. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday’s low of 1,295.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,290.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday’s high of 1,304.70. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,310.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,300.50
1st Support:—— 1,296.25
2nd Support:—— 1,291.50
1st Resistance:— 1,305.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,309.50
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday’s low of 1,569.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,550.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 1,591.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,579.50
1st Support:—— 1,567.25
2nd Support:—— 1,557.00
1st Resistance:— 1,589.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,602.00
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday’s low of 11,331 and then more stops just below support at 11,300. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above solid shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 11,400 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,362
1st Support:—— 11,325
2nd Support:—— 11,293
1st Resistance:— 11,394
2nd Resistance:— 11,431
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are trading firmer in early trading in Chicago. Following this week’s inflation reports, the bulls have still near-term technical momentum and are looking for more on the upside in the near term.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 109 16/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 109 23/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 109 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 109 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 109 13/32
1st Support:—– 109 3/32
2nd Support:—– 108 28/32
1st Resistance:– 109 20/32
2nd Resistance:– 109 30/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 106.24.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Thursday’s high of 106.30.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 106.19.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.13.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 106.24.0
1st Support:—— 106.16.0
2nd Support:—— 106.12.0
1st Resistance:— 106.28.0
2nd Resistance:— 107.04.0