October 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Early Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a stronger U.S. dollar and lower gold and crude oil prices. North Korea’s first detonation of a nuclear device did not have a huge impact on the markets. U.S. stocks are steady to slightly higher. U.S. T-Bond and T-Note markets are lower early today.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap for today is the ICSC store sales index, Redbook retail sales index and wholesale trade data. Dallas Fed president Fisher speaks today in London.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are steady to firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum on their side following recent gains.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday’s low of 1,354.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,350.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the contract high of 1,363.20. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,370.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,357.10
1st Support:—— 1,356.30
2nd Support:—— 1,353.40
1st Resistance:— 1,360.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,360.80
December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Monday’s low of 740.75. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 735.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 751.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 760.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:———— 747.40
1st Support:—— 743.25
2nd Support:—— 736.65
1st Resistance:— 754.00
2nd Resistance:— 758.15
December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday’s low of 11,877 and then more stops just below support at 11,850. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s contract high of 11,943 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,975. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,916
1st Support:—— 11,889
2nd Support:—— 11,850
1st Resistance:— 11,955
2nd Resistance:— 11,982
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower early today. Bears have some fresh near-term downside technical momentum on their side.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is moving below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 111 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 111 24/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 5/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 111 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 112 even
1st Support:—– 111 1/32
2nd Support:—– 110 16/32
1st Resistance:– 112 17/32
2nd Resistance:– 113 16/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 107.19.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish for today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is moving below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 107.10.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 107.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 107.31.0
1st Support:—— 107.08.0
2nd Support:—— 106.29.0
1st Resistance:— 108.10.0
2nd Resistance:— 109.01.0
