OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The real feature in overnight/early morning trading is solidly higher crude oil prices. Gold is also higher. U.S. stock indexes and Treasuries are firmer.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
There are no major reports on tap for today. However, Fed Chairman Bernanke does speak in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. His remarks will be closely scrutinized.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are slightly higher in early morning electronic trading. The bulls have faded a bit and trading has become choppy.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish today. However, the 4-day moving average is turning down for an early bearish warning signal, although still barely above the 9-day moving average. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at this week’s low of 1,291.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,285.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is located at Thursday’s high of 1,300.60. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then heavier buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at last week’s high of 1,307.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,296.80
1st Support:—— 1,292.95
2nd Support:—— 1,289.75
1st Resistance:— 1,299.95
2nd Resistance:— 1,303.75
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is still above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday’s low of 1,546.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,538.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,577.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above resistance at last week’s high of 1,591.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,555.50
1st Support:—— 1,548.25
2nd Support:—— 1,539.00
1st Resistance:— 1,564.75
2nd Resistance:— 1,572.00
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at this week’s low of 11,282 and then more stops just below support at 11,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 11,358 and then heavier buy stops just above resistance at last week’s high of 11,415. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9- and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,316
1st Support:—— 11,275
2nd Support:—— 11,247
1st Resistance:— 11,343
2nd Resistance:— 11,384
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are firmer in early trading in Chicago. The bulls have still near-term technical momentum and are looking for more on the upside in the near term.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Thursday’s and the overnight high of 110 6/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 110 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 110 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Thursday’s low of 109 24/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 109 31/32
1st Support:—– 109 25/32
2nd Support:—– 109 17/32
1st Resistance:– 110 7/32
2nd Resistance:– 110 13/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 107.02.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Thursday’s low of 106.26.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.19.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 106.30.0
1st Support:—— 106.26.0
2nd Support:—— 106.22.0
1st Resistance:— 107.02.0
2nd Resistance:— 107.06.0
