OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The feature in overnight/early morning trading is sharply lower crude oil prices. It appears Hurricane Ernesto will not hit the major oil and gas producing regions of the Gulf of Mexico. Gold is trading near steady. U.S. stock indexes and Treasuries are weaker in early trading.

U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS

On tap for today is the Dallas Federal Reserve’s manufacturing production index and the Chicago Federal Reserve’s Midwest manufacturing index. The big report this week is Friday’s U.S. jobs report.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The indexes are slightly lower in early morning electronic trading. The bulls have faded recently and trading has become choppy heading into the important month of September.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day moving average. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at last week’s low of 1,291.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,285.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday’s high of 1,301.70. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then heavier buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at the August high of 1,307.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:

Pivot:———— 1,298.00
1st Support:—— 1,294.50
2nd Support:—— 1,291.25
1st Resistance:— 1,301.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,305.00

September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is still above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at last week’s low of 1,546.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,538.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 1,575.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above resistance at the August high of 1,591.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,562.75
1st Support:—— 1,550.50
2nd Support:—— 1,540.25
1st Resistance:— 1,573.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,585.25

September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Friday’s low of 11,275 and then more stops just below support at 11,250. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 11,340 and then heavier buy stops just above resistance at the August high of 11,415. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:

Pivot:———— 11,308
1st Support:—— 11,275
2nd Support:—— 11,243
1st Resistance:— 11,340
2nd Resistance:— 11,373

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

Both notes and bond prices are weaker in early trading in Chicago. The bulls still have near-term technical momentum and are still looking for more on the upside in the near term.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Friday’s and last week’s high of 110 7/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 110 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 109 27/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 109 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 110 2/32
1st Support:—– 109 29/32
2nd Support:—– 109 22/32
1st Resistance:– 110 9/32
2nd Resistance:– 110 14/32

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 107.03.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Friday’s low of 106.27.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.19.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:

Pivot:———— 107.00.0
1st Support:—— 106.28.0
2nd Support:—— 106.24.0
1st Resistance:— 107.04.0
2nd Resistance:— 107.08.0