Wednesday, November 19–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are weaker U.S. stock index futures prices and higher U.S. Treasury prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It’s tough for stock index traders to get bullish when the top dogs of the three U.S. auto makers are on Capitol Hill begging Congress for money for their survival. However, the stock indexes, while hovering near the contract lows and near five-year lows, has not reacted strongly to the downside from this week’s continued stream of bad economic news. The lack of panic-type selling does suggest nearly all the bad economic news has been factored into stock prices, and that the downside is probably not great at present low price levels.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker again in early morning trading today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes as prices hover near their recent contract lows.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 848.50 and then at this week’s low of 825.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday’s high of 869.00 and then at this week’s high of 881.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 872.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 853.50
1st Support:——– 838.00
2nd Support:——– 809.50
1st Resistance:—– 882.00
2nd Resistance:—– 897.50
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,138.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the contract low of 1,108.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 1,176.00 and then at 1,190.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,189.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,154.00
1st Support:—— 1,132.00
2nd Support:—— 1,090.00
1st Resistance:— 1,196.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,218.00
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,300 and then more stops just below support at 8,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 8,520 and then just above resistance at 8,600. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,390
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,368
1st Support:—— 8,216
2nd Support:—— 7,938
1st Resistance:— 8,646
2nd Resistance:— 8,798
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are solidly higher early today and hit a fresh two-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 121 even and then at 120 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 121 9/32 and then at 121 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 18/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 119 26/32
1st Support:—– 119 7/32 2nd Support:—– 118 10/32
1st Resistance:– 120 23/32
2nd Resistance:– 121 10/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 119.03.5 and then at the contract high of 119.11.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 118.24.0 and then at 118.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.30.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 118 6/32
1st Support:—– 117 25/32 2nd Support:—– 117 4/32
1st Resistance:– 118 27/32
2nd Resistance:– 119 8/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 87.62 and then at Tuesday’s high of 87.80. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 87.12 and then at Monday’s low of 86.89. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The December Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2577 and then just below support at 1.2500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at Tuesday’s high of 1.2687 and then at 1.2728. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2694. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $741.50 and then at this week’s high of $747.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $734.30 and then at this week’s low of $729.60. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $734.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker again early today. Prices dipped to another fresh 22-month low overnight. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $54.78 and then just above resistance at Tuesday’s high of $55.98. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $53.30 and then more sell stops just below support at $52.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $58.46. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were steady to firmer in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are neutral to bearish early today–crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S. dollar is weaker. U.S. stock indexes are also weaker. Grain bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains, as the path of least resistance for the grains remains sideways at best. There has not been much new fresh fundamental news in the grain markets recently, so traders are continuing to focus on the outside markets for direction.
