OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The feature in overnight/early morning trading is sharply lower crude oil prices. Treasuries are higher and stock indexes are slightly lower. There were no major market-moving news events overnight.

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U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS

On tap today is jobless claims, leading economic indicators, the weekly DOE natural gas report, and the Philadelphia Fed business survey. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank president Fisher speaks today, as does Fed governor Krozner.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The indexes are slightly lower in early morning electronic trading, on a mild corrective pullback following more solid gains Wednesday. The bulls have suddenly gained very good near-term upside technical momentum.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average, but just barely. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,290.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Wednesday’s low of 1,286.90. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s high of 1,300.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,310.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 8.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:

Pivot:———— 1,295.25
1st Support:—— 1,290.50
2nd Support:—— 1,282.20
1st Resistance:— 1,303.65
2nd Resistance:— 1,308.35

September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,538.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,525.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 1,577.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,564.00
1st Support:—— 1,550.75
2nd Support:—— 1,525.50
1st Resistance:— 1,589.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,602.50

September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,300 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday’s low of 11,240. Heavy buy stops likely reside just above solid shorter-term technical resistance at the August high of 11,375 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:

Pivot:———— 11,321
1st Support:—— 11,271
2nd Support:—— 11,191
1st Resistance:— 11,401
2nd Resistance:— 11,451

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

Both notes and bond prices are trading higher in early trading in Chicago. Following this week’s inflation reports, the bulls have solid near-term technical momentum and are looking for more on the upside in the near term.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 109 23/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 110 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 109 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 109 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.5

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 109 4/32
1st Support:—– 108 25/32
2nd Support:—– 108 9/32
1st Resistance:– 109 20/32
2nd Resistance:– 109 31/32

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 106.30.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 106.22.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 8.5

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:

Pivot:———— 106.19.0
1st Support:—— 106.12.0
2nd Support:—— 106.02.0
1st Resistance:— 106.29.0
2nd Resistance:— 107.04.0