OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight trading was a rebound in most commodities prices, including gold, crude oil and the grains. The U.S. dollar is near steady versus the other major currencies. Stock indexes are weaker in early electronic trading. U.S. Treasuries are slightly higher. There was no major market-moving geopolitical news overnight.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the ICSC store sales index and the Redbook retail sales data. It’s a light report day today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are modestly lower in early morning electronic trading. Just as we’ve seen recently, my bias is still that trading will remain choppier in the near term, with no strong trends developing.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish. The 4-day moving average will likely move below the 9-day today. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bearish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at last week’s low of 1,271.10. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,266.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is Monday’s high of 1,282.60. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and heavier buy stops are likely located just above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of 1,289.70.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
1st Support:—— 1,272.15
2nd Support:—— 1,267.25
1st Resistance:— 1,282.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,287.50
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are fully bearish. The 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day moving averages. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bearish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Monday’s contract low of 1,526.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,500.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 1,558.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at Friday’s high of 1,579.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
1st Support:—— 1,523.25
2nd Support:—— 1,508.50
1st Resistance:— 1,555.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,572.50
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday’s low of 11,130 and then just below support at of 11,075. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 11,240 and then more buy stops just above resistance 11,300. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish today, as the 4-day moving average is poised to move below the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
1st Support:—— 11,137
2nd Support:—— 11,099
1st Resistance:— 11,227
2nd Resistance:— 11,279
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are firmer in early trading in Chicago. Technical odds are increasing that near-term lows are in place in bonds and notes.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is now above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bullish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 107 5/32. Heavier buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 107 23/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 106 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Monday’s low of 106 18/32.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 106 25/32
1st Support:—– 106 21/32
2nd Support:—– 106 13/32
1st Resistance:– 107 1/32
2nd Resistance:– 107 5/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices overnight hit a fresh three-week high of 105.00.0. Shorter-term oscillators are bullish today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at the overnight high of 105.00.0, and then just above resistance at 105.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, and is above the 18-day. The 9-day is now above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 104.27.0, and then more sell stops just below support at Monday’s low of 104.22.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
1st Support:—— 104.23.0
2nd Support:—— 104.19.0
1st Resistance:— 104.31.0
2nd Resistance:— 105.03.0