While the US markets have fallen back markedly from the prior session’s highs, the market remains within striking distance of the recent highs and most prices also continue to sit in some of the highest ground in the last month’s trade! While we understand the markets hope that the latest US bailout will solve or perhaps only delay a major problem, it would seem like the US and global outlook continues to worsen. With Bloomberg this morning suggesting that Biotech firms might be poised to ask the US government for aid and the Chinese Civil Aviation Administration advising its airlines to cancel or delay airplane purchases, it is clear that the slowing is spreading throughout the world. In our opinion, the stock market is capable of rallying as long as the US government keeps announcing historic bailout plans every two days or so. Perhaps the market is lifting prices this morning, in anticipation of a positive vote on the US auto sector bailout plan but then we would expect the bullish tone to dissipate and for the bear camp to regain the upper hand later in the week.
DOW: The bulls retain the edge today because of the persistent flow of assistance being promised from the US government. In fact, if and when the temporary bridge loan to the US auto makers becomes a reality, the market might begin to focus on the latest travails at AIG again which has apparently disclosed non government guaranteed trading losses of up to $10 billion. While we aren’t predicting a full blown rekindling of financial sector fears, (as a result of the AIG trading loss news) that is just another negative that could attract the attention of the market once the US auto sector issue is temporarily put to rest. In fact, while we can’t rule out another attempt to rally back above 9,000, in the wake of the latest US bailout effort, we would suggest that traders look to purchase some Mini Dow puts on any pulse above 9,000 today.
NASDAQ: The Nasdaq remains within relative proximity to its recent highs and is seemingly entrenched above the 1200 level. However, we have an uneasy feeling that investors are kidding themselves about the prospects for the broad economy ahead. Some traders might suggest that the 50 day moving average up at 1248.85 could signal a quasi upside breakout in the Nasdaq but we think that buyers at current levels are assuming significant risk. However, with the expectation of a positive US auto sector bailout vote today or Thursday, it is possible that the bull camp will be able to retain temporary control over prices. There is now a critical gap area on the December Nasdaq charts down at 1193.50 to 1181 and that could become a downside target zone in the event that the market starts to turn lower in the aftermath of the US auto sector bailout.
S&P 500: The 50 day moving average in the December S&P is seen at up at 920 today and that could be a rather lofty target for the bull camp in the action today. Surprisingly the market doesn’t seem to be the least bit concerned about the ongoing evidence of deterioration in the global economy, even though the layoff announcements continue to flow freely. Initial support is seen at 880 but it will take a trade above 916.20 to convince us, that the bulls have indeed retained control.