The stock market was clearly lifted by the Fed’s bold foray into the world of quantitative easing. Clearly seeing the mortgage market jolted and the shorts in the Treasury markets severely wounded could ultimately set the stage for a further decline in real interest rates across the board and that could end up helping the economy from a number of angles. We suspect that the mortgage market will see a fresh wave of refinancing and the Fed’s move at least initially will serve to boost confidence levels. However, the market will be presented with a Conference Board Leading indicator report today and it goes without saying, that the US data today didn’t have the benefit of the Fed’s move. Since the market was already embracing the bullish side of the equation, prior to the Fed’s bold move, we suspect that the path of least resistance will probably favor the bull camp. Some key earnings news from Fedex today will also be key to the direction of stock prices for the rest of the week, as the package business is typically seen as a barometer for a broader cross section of the US economy. On the other hand, with some analysts suggesting that the Fed just fired its sixth bullet, from its six-gun, one has to wonder what the Fed can do if the latest stimulus applied, fails to revive the economy. For the near term, the bull camp looks to retain the edge.
S&P 500: The big range up extension yesterday has to put would be shorts back on their heels and like the Nasdaq, the S&P has an overhead gap area that might be a target for the technical traders. The June S&P gap is seen from 793 to 804.80, which is also the bottom of the late January and early February consolidation zone. For the time being, we suspect that the bulls will attempt to push up prices further, especially if the scheduled reports and the headlines avoid clouding the waters with overtly negatively developments.
DOW: The June Mini Dow did manage a temporary rise above the 7,500 level yesterday, but prices overnight have fallen back as if that level has become a modest layer of resistance. One would have expected the blue chip stocks to garner the biggest benefit from the attempt to rapidly reduce rates and therefore it could be very important for the June Mini Dow today to regain the 7,500 level.
NASDAQ: The June Nasdaq made a strong bid to fill an old gap left up at 1193.50 to 1225.00 and that in turn would seem to leave the bulls will a little more work in the action directly ahead. Prior to the Fed’s bold move, the Nasdaq and the tech sector in particular were in favor and that would seem to leave the Nasdaq in a position to extend the gains. In fact, we suspect that the Nasdaq continues to be the least speculatively overbought index of the Nasdaq, S&P and Mini Dow markets.