With a slightly higher high for the move in the June S&P overnight, the bull camp looks to take the bullish bias into the last trading day of the month. In fact, the market doesn’t seem to be undermined by news of a rather large US Chapter 11 filing (R.H. Donnelley), or by the ongoing fear of an actual filing by GM on Monday. The US economic report slate today is somewhat active, with a revision of a previously released GDP report and some regional purchasing manager’s data. With the Nikkei managing to rise to the highest level since last November overnight, the US stock markets looks to have a slight tail wind into the US action. Perhaps the most concerning economic release of the session today will come from the Chicago purchasing managers data, as we expect the Michigan sentiment readings to catch a slight lift from the very favorable national consumer sentiment readings that were already released. In short, the data could carry some surprises, but in general we suspect that the bull case will benefit from the US data flow this morning, while the bear camp might have to dredge up negative corporate news to justify their case.
S&P 500: A critical 200 day moving average in the June S&P is seen at 925 today and a rise back above this week’s highs of 913.80, could prompt another weak wave of technically orientated buying. We will remain bullish toward stocks today unless the June S&P fails to hold above 903.20. Unfortunately up trend channel support is not seen today at 888.55 today and at 892.40 on Monday.
DOW: The June Mini Dow has managed a minor higher high this morning and that could leave the next even number zone on the charts up at 8,500 as a near term target zone. Taking away from the distinctly bullish initial bias in the market this morning, is the suggestions from the Fed that they are not intending to set interest rates. However, with commodity stocks providing the market with a lift yesterday and oil and precious metals strong again into the opening today, we would have to expect even more gains in the market today. In fact, as long as the June Mini Dow holds above 8,359 today, we will assume that the near term trend is pointing to the upside.
NASDAQ: Unfortunately for the bull camp, the June Nasdaq has not managed to make a fresh higher high move in the overnight action. Critical resistance is seen at 1429 basis the June Nasdaq. In our opinion, a weak upward bias will remain in place, unless the June Nasdaq falls back below the 1415 level.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: An ongoing weak bullish bias is expected to remain in place today, unless the scheduled numbers provide some type of added bullish incentive and then the gains might become more significant.