Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 8 years, again confirming a major downtrend.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA, turning neutral.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years, reconfirming its bearish trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) reconfirmed a bearish major trend when it fell below its lows of the previous 9 years.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,313.72) fell 21.30 points or 1.60% on Monday. SPX closed below its lowest closing price lows of the previous 9 trading days, confirming resumption of downside momentum.

MACD based on the S&P 500 crossed below zero, so it is back in bearish territory.

SPX broke down from a Bearish Rising Wedge Chart Pattern on Thursday. That implies potential short-term risk to the 6/4/12 low at 1,266.74.

With upside bounces smaller and briefer than declines, price and time confirm the dominance of selling pressure over buying pressure. The path of least resistance appears to be down.

The following ETFs, ranked by Relative Strength, with the weakest at the bottom of the list, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months:

Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
Belgium Index, EWK
Germany Index, EWG
Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
China 25 iS, FXI
China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
Brazil Index, EWZ
Metals & Mining SPDR, XME

For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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Stock Market Indicators

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/12. The Ratio’s trend is now systematically neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has been above its 200-day SMA since 2/3/12.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 6/25/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. Systematically, BKF/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 5/25/12, reconfirming its bearish trend. EEM/SPY remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) reconfirmed a bearish major trend when it fell below its lows of the previous 9 years on 6/25/12. Systematically, EFA/SPY remains bearish below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years on 6/25/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend. OEX/SPX remains systematically bullish above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. On the other side of the coin, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/22/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. IWM/SPY remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA since 4/20/12. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been relatively weak for more than a year, since 4/5/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 6/14/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. MDY/SPY turned systematically bearish on 6/6/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. MDY/SPY remains below its 50-day SMA and below its 200-day SMA.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.80, 50-day SMA
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1296.25, 200-day SMA
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.02, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 21 months intraday on 6/22/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/25/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. DBA is now above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has been consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 8 months on 6/25/12, again confirming a major downtrend. USO turned systematically bearish on 6/7/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. USO remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Support 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 31.81, 32.80, 34.76, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/20/12, turning systematically bearish again. GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/1/12, turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/22/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/8/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. JJC turned systematically bearish on 5/31/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.68% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
3.93% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.93% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.99% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
0.70% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
0.32% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
2.36% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.65% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
1.73% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
0.80% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
3.44% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
2.14% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.11% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.28% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1.26% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.26% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
1.48% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.31% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
0.22% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
0.10% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.73% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-1.72% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-1.34% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-2.55% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-2.50% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-4.32% , AN , AUTONATION
-7.61% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-1.96% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-4.06% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-1.33% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-1.12% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-2.62% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.05% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-2.03% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-2.06% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-1.53% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-1.69% , SDY , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.87% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-1.84% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-3.18% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.43% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.28% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.21% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.77% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.78% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-2.11% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-7.59% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-3.22% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-1.68% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-2.13% , VTI , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-4.24% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-1.37% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-1.66% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.14% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.93% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.48% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
1.46% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.03% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.73% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.55% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.46% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.32% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.28% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.26% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.10% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.15% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.16% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.17% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.19% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.21% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.22% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.42% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.53% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.55% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.58% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.60% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.62% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.86% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.93% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.00% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.03% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.05% India PS, PIN
-1.05% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.06% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.09% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.16% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.22% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.26% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.26% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.28% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.29% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.31% Water Resources, PHO
-1.32% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.37% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.41% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.41% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.41% Dividend International, PID
-1.43% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.44% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.44% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.45% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.45% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.50% Canada Index, EWC
-1.51% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.51% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.52% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.53% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.53% Russia MV, RSX
-1.54% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.54% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.55% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.55% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.56% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.56% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.57% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.58% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.59% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.60% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.60% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.63% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.63% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.64% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.64% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.65% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.69% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.69% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.70% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.73% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.78% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.78% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.79% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.79% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.80% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.81% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.81% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.81% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.81% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.82% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.83% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.84% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.85% Australia Index, EWA
-1.85% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.86% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.87% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.87% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.91% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.91% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.93% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.94% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.95% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-2.01% Taiwan Index, EWT
-2.04% Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.05% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.06% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.06% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.09% Global 100, IOO
-2.11% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.13% Energy Global, IXC
-2.13% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-2.14% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-2.15% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.16% Energy DJ, IYE
-2.19% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.21% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.22% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.23% EAFE Index, EFA
-2.24% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.24% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.24% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.29% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.31% Value VIPERs, VTV
-2.34% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.36% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.40% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.41% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.50% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.52% Austria Index, EWO
-2.55% Networking, IGN
-2.62% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.65% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.76% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.77% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.81% Germany Index, EWG
-2.85% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.97% France Index, EWQ
-3.15% South Korea Index, EWY
-3.18% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.24% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-3.68% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-4.96% Italy Index, EWI
-4.97% Spain Index, EWP