The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,368.71) remains below its 50-day SMA. NYSE volume fell 19%, thereby failing to confirm a modest recovery attempt on Wednesday.

MACD based on SPX fell further below the zero line, fell further below its lows of the previous 3 months, fell further below its signal line, and fell further below its high set on 2/9/12, which appears to have been the momentum peak for the rally.

The S&P 500 chart broke down below the rising lower boundary line of a Bearish Rising Wedge on 4/10/12, thereby giving a clear bearish chart signal. This breakdown suggests that stocks could quickly erase all gains since the 10/4/11 low of 1,074.77 on the S&P 500.

A variety of technical indicators have been demonstrating waning bullish momentum for stocks. A downside correction or shakeout has seemed overdue, according to past norms.

Following unusually large price run ups, such as Q1 2012, stocks become more vulnerable to sudden reversals. Potential Reward relative to potential Risk remains unattractive for stocks at this time.

Energy stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 16 months and fell further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks, confirming renewed downside momentum for the medium term.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell further below its lows of the past 3 months, confirming renewed downside momentum for the medium term.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Available by subscription only (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1391.56, low of 3/29/2012
1386.87, low of 3/23/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1378.04, high of 2/29/2012
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1373.29, 50-day SMA
1370.58, high of 5/2/11

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1357.38, low of 4/11/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1337.35, low of 2/10/2012
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1271.01, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 14 trading days on 4/5/12. Systematically, UUP is bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has stayed above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 21.85, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.23, 22.47, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index fell further below its lows of the previous 3 months on 4/10/12. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 17 months on 4/10/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell further below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 4/10/12. USO whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 4/3/12, turning systematically neutral. USO remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 38.31, 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 4/4/12. Systematically, GLD remains neutral: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 156.58, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 4/11/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Systematically, GDX/GLD remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below its lows of the previous 11 weeks on 4/4/12, suggesting renewed downside momentum for the medium term. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 30.11, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 4/11/12, confirming renewed downside momentum for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the past 3 months on 4/11/12, confirming renewed downside momentum for the medium term. Systematically, however, JJC remains neutral: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 3/21/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.82% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
1.05% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
0.98% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
2.34% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
5.35% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
6.22% , AA , ALCOA
0.85% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
1.55% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
4.91% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
3.08% , PWER , POWER ONE
0.65% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
1.14% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.60% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
0.34% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.94% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
0.83% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.90% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
1.49% , TYC , TYCO INTL
4.43% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
1.27% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
4.17% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
1.04% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
1.06% , TE , TECO ENERGY
2.70% , WAG , WALGREEN
1.36% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
3.67% , JCP , JC PENNEY
1.21% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
1.24% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.35% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
2.19% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
1.70% , HUM , HUMANA
1.72% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
2.88% , DLX , DELUXE

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.80% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-2.70% , PCAR , PACCAR
-2.87% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-2.74% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-2.67% , NCR , NCR
-2.07% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-1.33% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-0.62% , ETN , EATON
-0.57% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-2.32% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-0.41% , KFT , Kraft Foods Inc.
-0.93% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-0.53% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-0.50% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.24% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-0.23% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-1.43% , UIS , UNISYS
-0.21% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.19% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-0.74% , APA , APACHE
-0.01% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.08% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-0.67% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-0.10% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.17% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
3.12% Spain Index, EWP
2.86% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.84% Austria Index, EWO
2.52% Italy Index, EWI
2.26% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.19% Sweden Index, EWD
2.01% Taiwan Index, EWT
2.01% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.91% Germany Index, EWG
1.88% Russia MV, RSX
1.86% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.82% European VIPERs, VGK
1.81% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.73% Belgium Index, EWK
1.70% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.70% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.68% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.59% France Index, EWQ
1.59% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.58% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.57% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.55% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.54% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.53% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.51% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.49% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.49% India PS, PIN
1.46% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.43% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.43% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.42% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.42% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.39% EAFE Index, EFA
1.38% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.36% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.35% Japan Index, EWJ
1.35% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.34% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.33% South Korea Index, EWY
1.30% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.30% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.30% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.29% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.29% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.28% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.26% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.24% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.22% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.19% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.19% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.19% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.17% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.16% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.16% China 25 iS, FXI
1.15% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.14% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.14% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.12% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.10% Networking, IGN
1.08% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.08% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.07% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.07% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.02% Australia Index, EWA
1.02% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.01% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.97% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.95% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.94% Global 100, IOO
0.93% Water Resources, PHO
0.93% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.91% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.90% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.89% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.89% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.87% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.84% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.83% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.83% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.83% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.83% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.81% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.81% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.81% Dividend International, PID
0.80% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.80% Singapore Index, EWS
0.80% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.79% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.78% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.78% Canada Index, EWC
0.75% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.73% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.72% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.69% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.69% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.66% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.66% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.66% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.61% Energy Global, IXC
0.61% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.59% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.59% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.59% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.55% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.54% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.53% Mexico Index, EWW
0.53% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.50% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.49% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.48% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.48% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.43% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.41% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.37% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.36% South Africa Index, EZA
0.36% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.34% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.25% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.23% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.20% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.17% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.16% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.14% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.05% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.02% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.01% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.01% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.05% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.08% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.10% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.18% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.21% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.39% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.45% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.73% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.20% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT