Consumer Discretionary Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 4-year highs. Absolute price of XLY closed above 17-month closing price highs. Both remain bullish.

Industrial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 16-month highs and remains bullish.

Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above 4-month highs. Although XLF/SPY is above both moving averages, the 50 remains below the 200, which is not bullish.

Materials Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) bounced moderately and is now neural, between 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.

Health Care Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell sharply below 4-month lows but still remains technically neutral because the 50-day is above the 200-day simple moving average.

The CRB Index of Commodity Prices fell further below 6-week lows, apparently confirming a minor correction or a more extensive Secondary Reaction.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.49% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
0.70% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
4.40% , SLM , SLM CORP
0.45% , PMR , Retail, PMR
3.94% , AVP , AVON
1.62% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
12.89% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
1.09% , NI , NISOURCE
2.67% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
4.16% , COH , COACH
1.40% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
1.50% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
1.09% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
3.07% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
1.37% , FHN , FIRST TENNESSEE
2.25% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
2.97% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
0.93% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
2.55% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
1.57% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
0.50% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.15% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
1.29% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
1.84% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
1.69% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
0.28% , RAI , RJR TOBACCO HLDS
1.72% , TGT , TARGET
0.72% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
2.13% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
0.43% , PGN , PROGRESS ENERGY
1.91% , KBH , KB HOME
1.34% , AEE , AMEREN
0.31% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.61% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.81% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.54% , BLL , BALL
2.24% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
2.22% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
1.56% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
2.03% , ALL , ALLSTATE

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.77% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-2.03% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-1.06% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
-1.84% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-2.40% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-0.61% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.87% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
-1.99% , MTB , M&T BANK
-0.95% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.06% , CTAS , CINTAS
-1.56% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-0.54% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-1.42% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-1.55% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-1.16% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-1.21% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
-0.99% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-1.28% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-0.96% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-1.81% , ZION , ZIONS
-1.16% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-0.62% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-0.75% , XLV , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.48% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.07% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-1.68% , SYK , STRYKER
-0.72% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-0.41% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-0.47% , FO , FORTUNE BRANDS
-1.44% , PFE , PFIZER
-0.86% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-1.55% , ADI , ANALOG DEVICES
-0.19% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-0.87% , IP , INTL PAPER
-0.88% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-0.32% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-0.27% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.13% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-0.24% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-1.66% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 4-year highs on 3/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY closed above 17-month closing price highs on 3/26/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.94, 31.66, 30.99, 29.90, 29.25, 28.66, 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance 33.76 and 34.50.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 16-month highs on 3/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI moved above 17-month highs on 3/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.79, 29.60, and 28.15. Resistance 32.00 and 35.00.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above 6-week highs on 3/25/10 but remains stuck in the neutral zone with 50- below the 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price rose above 11-week highs on 3/25/10 and remains bullish. Support 22.52, 21.30, 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 23.38 and 23.83.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above 4-month highs on 3/26/10. Although XLF/SPY is above both moving averages, the 50 remains below the 200, which is not bullish. Absolute price of XLF moved above 16-month highs on 3/24/10, and moving average analysis of XLF price remains bullish. Support 15.37, 15.12, 14.33, 13.95, 13.51 and 13.08. Resistance 16.53 and 17.87.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) bounced moderately and is now neural, between 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of XLB rose above 9-week highs on 3/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.85, 32.58, 30.79, 29.48, 28.95 and 28.67. Resistance 34.52 and 35.38.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) turned bearish on 3/9/10 when it fell below its 50-day simple moving average. XLP/SPY remains below its 200, and the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Absolute price of XLP moved above 17-month highs on 3/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 27.23, 26.82, 26.49, 26.04, 25.93 and 25.71. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell sharply below 4-month lows on 3/26/10 but still remains neutral because the 50-day is above the 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of XLV rose above 8-week highs on 3/22/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.46, 31.00, 30.27, 30.65 and 29.55. Resistance 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell further below 17-month lows on 3/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLE fell below 4-week lows on 3/25/10 and remains below its 50-day simple moving average, suggesting a neutral price trend. Support 54.72, 52.67 and 51.34. Resistance 59.42, 59.90 and 60.87.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell further below 2-year lows on 3/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU fell below 3-week lows on 3/25/10, crossed back down below its 200-day simple moving average, and remains neutral. Support 28.45 and 28.10. Resistance 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains bearish, but absolute price of EEM remains bullishly above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA remains bullishly above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 3/10/10 and remains in bullish position above rising 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200. Absolute price of the NASDAQ rose above 17-month highs on 3/23/10 and is in bullish position relative to moving averages.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 4-month low on 3/17/10. IWF/IWD has been below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages for most of the month, March 2010. In contrast, absolute price of IWF rose above 17-month highs on 3/23/10 and is bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 3/23/10 and is bullish. Absolute price of IWD rose above 17-month highs on 3/23/10 and is bullish.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above previous 6-year highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP rose above 18-month highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) broke down below the lows of the previous 20 months on 3/10/10. OEX/SPX remains bearish below its falling 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. Conflicting with this bearish Relative Strength trend, absolute price of OEX remains bullish relative to its moving averages.

The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 17-month highs on 3/23/10. Absolute price of IWM rose further above 17-month highs on 3/23/10. Both remain in bullish position relative to key moving averages.

The Mid Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 3/23/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price has been in a choppy/sideways trading range most of the time since October 2009. Longer term, Oil remains in strong position above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 78.86, 77.05, 76.71, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 83.95, 85.82 and 98.65.

Gold nearest futures contract price fell sharply below 5-week lows on 3/24/10. Gold price remains neutral: below its 50-day simple moving average, above its 200-day simple moving average, and the 50 remains above the 200. Support 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1145.8, 1163.0, 1170.2, 1196.8 and 1226.4.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) turned bearish on 3/24/10 by falling below 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages when the 50 was below the 200. Absolute price of GDX turned neutral on 3/24/10 and is hanging on by a slim margin. The gold mining stocks have underperformed gold bullion since 9/17/09.

Silver/Gold Ratio is neutral between 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. The 50 remains below the 200, which is not bullish. Mixed indications from the Silver/Gold Ratio still implies some uncertainty about prospects for the world economy.

Copper nearest futures contract price has been in a choppy/sideways trading range since 3/1/10. Watch critical support 3.29. Longer term, Copper has been in a strong trend since 12/08. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.29, 3.1505, 3.034, 2.811, 2.64 and 2.4575. Resistance 3.4665, 3.47, 3.544, 3.5625, 3.5625, and 3.79.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell sharply below 10-week lows on 3/25/10 and remains bearish. Support 114.16, 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 118.12, 119.18, 120.11 and 123.18.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 9-week highs on 3/25/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of JNK also rose above 9-week highs on 3/25/10 and remains bullish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned slightly bullish on 3/25/10, when TIP/IEF rose above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose further above its 10-month trading range on 3/25/10 and remains bullish. Support 80.775, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 83.145 and 83.335.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 48.9% Bulls versus 20.5% Bears as of 3/25/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 2.39, up from 2.16 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is still well below its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index fell to a 22-month low of 16.17 on 3/19/10. A low and falling VIX suggests bullish complacency. VIX is down from a closing high of 80.86 set on 11/20/08. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index fell to a 31-month low of 17.16 on 3/18/10.. A low and falling VXN suggests bullish complacency. VXN is down from a closing high of 80.64 set on 11/20/08. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio has been consistently neutral in recent months: its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which is two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.43 on 3/9/10, a low level that indicates significant bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a caution sign. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which is two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 3/18/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 17 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price rose above 17-month highs on 3/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 1141.45, 1116.11, 1086.02, 1078.46, 1069.97, 1044.50, 1036.31 and 1029.54. Resistance 1220.03 and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1141.45, low of 3/15/2010
1116.11, high of 3/1/2010
1086.95, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1086.02, low of 2/25/2010
1078.46, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1069.97, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1036.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-2010 range
1029.54, Gann 25.0% of 2009-2010 range
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
969.08, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
965.69, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
908.62, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
851.55, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.03% Russia MV, RSX
2.02% China 25 iS, FXI
1.78% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.70% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.63% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.62% Italy Index, EWI
1.57% Japan Index, EWJ
1.54% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.51% Austria Index, EWO
1.50% Spain Index, EWP
1.44% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.30% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.23% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.20% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.19% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.17% Germany Index, EWG
1.10% France Index, EWQ
1.08% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.04% European VIPERs, VGK
1.01% Belgium Index, EWK
0.98% EAFE Index, EFA
0.90% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.85% India PS, PIN
0.83% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.81% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.81% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.80% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.77% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.75% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.71% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.70% Singapore Index, EWS
0.65% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.61% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.58% Energy Global, IXC
0.57% South Africa Index, EZA
0.56% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.50% Networking, IGN
0.49% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.47% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.44% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.44% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.39% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.39% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.35% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.35% Global 100, IOO
0.31% Sweden Index, EWD
0.31% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.30% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.29% Water Resources, PHO
0.29% Mexico Index, EWW
0.28% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.27% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.26% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.24% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.24% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.24% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.23% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.23% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.21% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.17% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.17% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.17% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.16% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.13% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.13% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.13% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.10% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.10% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.10% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.10% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.09% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.08% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.07% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.07% Dividend International, PID
0.07% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.07% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.06% Energy DJ, IYE
0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.05% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.05% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.05% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.04% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.04% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.04% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.04% Australia Index, EWA
0.04% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.04% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.03% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.02% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.02% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.01% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.00% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.00% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.00% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.00% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.01% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.02% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.03% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.03% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.04% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.04% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.04% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.05% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.05% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.06% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.06% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.07% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.08% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.09% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.10% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.10% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.11% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.14% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.15% Canada Index, EWC
-0.18% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.18% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.18% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.19% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.20% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.21% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.25% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.26% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.27% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.36% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.39% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-0.46% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.48% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.48% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.52% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.60% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.61% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.61% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.70% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.75% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.79% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.95% Thailand MSCI iS, THD