The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 3/17/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 17 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500, S&P 100, S&P Mid Cap, S&P Small Cap, NYSE Composite, NASDAQ Composite, Wilshire 5000, Russell Indexes, On Balance Volume for the SPY, The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE, and other indicators confirmed by making new highs. The broad market is strong.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 6-week lows.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.56% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
1.42% , PZJ , SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
6.67% , FNM , FANNIE MAE
8.93% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
6.35% , FRE , FREDDIE MAC
9.12% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
4.84% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
5.58% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
4.78% , AA , ALCOA
1.39% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
4.39% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
1.14% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
6.46% , IP , INTL PAPER
3.72% , FHN , FIRST TENNESSEE
0.56% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
0.91% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
6.80% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
1.04% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
3.30% , MBI , MBIA
5.00% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
0.76% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
0.77% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
0.82% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
1.20% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.68% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
4.52% , F , FORD MOTOR
6.13% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
0.49% , VIG , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
4.16% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
4.75% , SNV , SYNOVUS
2.95% , LM , LEGG MASON
4.25% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
1.92% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
1.15% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
0.60% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
1.68% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
2.99% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
4.37% , ZION , ZIONS
0.73% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
1.46% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.60% , PWER , POWER ONE
-3.11% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-2.21% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-0.74% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-3.98% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-1.37% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-0.44% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
-1.88% , XRX , XEROX
-1.72% , NBR , NABORS
-1.01% , AES , AES
-0.93% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-1.04% , ETFC.O , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-1.03% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-1.17% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-1.60% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.69% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-1.07% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-1.04% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-1.71% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-0.46% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.73% , DHR , DANAHER
-2.48% , X , US STEEL CORP
-0.55% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-0.61% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-0.15% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-2.08% , NUE , NUCOR
-0.60% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.21% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.05% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-0.19% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
-0.25% , ECL , ECOLAB
-0.52% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-1.27% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.46% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-0.49% , TGT , TARGET
-0.32% , INTU , INTUIT
-0.97% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-0.37% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-1.43% , IR , INGER RAND
-0.46% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 4-year highs on 3/12/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.94, 31.66, 30.99, 29.90, 29.25, 28.66, 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance 33.76 and 34.50.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above 16-month highs on 3/16/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI moved above 17-month highs on 3/16/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.79, 29.60, and 28.15. Resistance 32.00 and 35.00.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) has been consolidating below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages since 2/19/10. Absolute price rose above 9-week highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Support 22.52, 21.30, 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 22.96, and 23.05.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) has been consolidating below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages since 1/21/10. Absolute price of XLB rose above 8-week highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.58, 30.79, 29.48, 28.95 and 28.67. Resistance 34.52 and 35.38.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 4-month lows on 3/17/10 and remains below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of XLV rose above 8-week highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.46, 31.00, 30.27, 30.65 and 29.55. Resistance 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above 4-month highs on 3/17/10. Although XLF/SPY is above both moving averages, the 50 remains below the 200, which is not bullish. Absolute price of XLF moved above 16-month highs on 3/17/10, and moving average analysis of XLF price remains bullish. Support 15.37, 15.12, 14.33, 13.95, 13.51 and 13.08. Resistance 16.53 and 17.87.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) turned bearish on 3/9/10 when it fell below its 50-day simple moving average. XLP/SPY remains below its 200, and the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Absolute price of XLP moved above 17-month highs on 3/16/10 and remains bullish. Support 27.23, 26.82, 26.49, 26.04, 25.93 and 25.71. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 12-week lows on 3/15/10 and remains bearish. In contrast, absolute price of XLE moved above 8-week highs on 3/17/10 and remains in bullish relative to 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 57.29, 56.84, 54.72, 52.67 and 51.34. Resistance 59.90 and 60.87.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell further below 2-year lows on 3/12/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above 8-week highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish, above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 29.75, 28.45 and 28.10. Resistance 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains bearish, but absolute price of EEM rose to a 8-week high on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains bearish, but absolute price of EFA rose to a 8-week high on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 3/10/10 and remains in bullish position above rising 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200. Absolute price of the NASDAQ rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and is in bullish position relative to moving averages.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 4-month low on 3/17/10. IWF/IWD fell below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages in March 2010. In contrast, absolute price of IWF rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and is bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 4-month highs on 3/17/10 and is bullish. Absolute price of IWD rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and is bullish.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above previous 6-year highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP rose above 18-month highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) broke down below the lows of the previous 20 months on 3/10/10. OEX/SPX remains bearish below its falling 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. Conflicting with this bearish Relative Strength trend, absolute price of OEX remains bullish relative to its moving averages.

The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 17-month highs on 3/10/10. Absolute price of IWM rose further above 17-month highs on 3/17/10. Both remain in bullish position relative to key moving averages.

The Mid Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. In addition, absolute price of MDY rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose to the upper end of its trading range on 3/17/10. Oil remains in strong position above 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 80.16, 77.05, 76.71, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 83.95, 85.82 and 98.65.

Gold nearest futures contract price rose above 6-day highs on 3/17/10. Gold remains bullish, above its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 remains comfortably above the 200. Support 1097.3, 1088.5, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1145.8, 1163.0, 1170.2, 1196.8 and 1226.4.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) remains neutral, between 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of GDX also is neutral. The gold mining stocks have underperformed gold bullion since 9/17/09.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose above its 2000-day simple moving average on 3/17/10, but the 50 remains below the 200, and so the Silver/Gold Ratio is neutral. Mixed indications from the Silver/Gold Ratio still implies some uncertainty about prospects for the world economy.

Copper nearest futures contract price rose to the upper end of its trading range on 3/17/10. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.1505, 3.034, 2.811, 2.64 and 2.4575. Resistance 3.4665, 3.47, 3.544, 3.5625, 3.5625, and 3.79.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose above 3-month highs on 3/17/10. The 50 MA remains below the 200 simple moving average, which is not bullish. The Bond remains stuck in a choppy/sideways/neutral trend since its June, 2009, low at 113.04. Support 115.24, 114.16, 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 119.18, 120.11 and 123.18.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) slipped slightly below its 50-day simple moving average on 3/17/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of JNK rose above 6-week highs on 3/10/10 and remains bullish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) remains neutral, stuck between 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Investors appear unconcerned about inflation.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 6-week lows on 3/17/10, which might be taken as a warning of a short-term correction. USD remains in strong position above 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, however, so it may be premature to turn bearish. Support 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 81.43, 81.795 and 83.335.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 46.1% Bulls versus 21.3% Bears as of 3/17/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 2.16, up from 1.90 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is still well below its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index fell to a 22-month low of 16.52 on 3/17/10. A low and falling VIX suggests bullish complacency. VIX is down from a closing high of 80.86 set on 11/20/08. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index fell to a 31-month low of 17.46 on 3/17/10.. A low and falling VXN suggests bullish complacency. VXN is down from a closing high of 80.64 set on 11/20/08. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio has been consistently neutral in recent months: its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which is two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.43 on 3/9/10, a low level that indicates significant bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a caution sign. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which is two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 3/17/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 17 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Support 1141.45, 1116.11, 1086.02, 1078.46, 1069.97, 1044.50, 1036.31 and 1029.54. Resistance 1220.03 and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1141.45, low of 3/15/2010
1116.11, high of 3/1/2010
1086.95, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1086.02, low of 2/25/2010
1078.46, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1069.97, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1036.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-2010 range
1029.54, Gann 25.0% of 2009-2010 range
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
969.08, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
965.69, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
908.62, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
851.55, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

3.63% Indonesia MV, IDX
2.09% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.03% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.83% South Africa Index, EZA
1.80% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.75% South Korea Index, EWY
1.61% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1.61% China 25 iS, FXI
1.51% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.49% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.46% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.41% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.35% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.22% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.21% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.20% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.19% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.14% Belgium Index, EWK
1.13% Australia Index, EWA
1.11% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.11% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.11% Mexico Index, EWW
1.10% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.08% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.08% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.02% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.01% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.97% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.95% Singapore Index, EWS
0.95% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.93% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.92% Russia MV, RSX
0.89% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.89% Energy DJ, IYE
0.89% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.89% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.86% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.86% India PS, PIN
0.84% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.84% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.83% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.82% Austria Index, EWO
0.80% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.80% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.79% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.78% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.77% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.76% Energy Global, IXC
0.75% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.74% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.73% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.73% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.71% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.71% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.70% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.69% Networking, IGN
0.69% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.69% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.68% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.68% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.68% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.66% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.64% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.64% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.63% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.61% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.60% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.60% Italy Index, EWI
0.59% Global 100, IOO
0.59% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.59% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.59% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.59% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.59% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.59% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.58% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.58% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.58% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.58% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.57% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.57% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.56% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.56% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.54% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.54% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.54% EAFE Index, EFA
0.53% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.52% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.51% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.51% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.51% Germany Index, EWG
0.50% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.50% Canada Index, EWC
0.49% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.49% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.46% European VIPERs, VGK
0.44% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.43% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.43% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.43% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.42% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.42% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.40% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.38% Japan Index, EWJ
0.37% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.35% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.35% Dividend International, PID
0.34% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.33% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.31% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.31% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.30% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.29% Water Resources, PHO
0.29% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.27% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.27% Sweden Index, EWD
0.21% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.18% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.18% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.16% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.16% Spain Index, EWP
0.12% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.10% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.08% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.04% France Index, EWQ
0.03% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.02% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.13% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.18% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.21% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.30% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.40% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.54% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.73% Gold Shares S.T., GLD