The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend in April, 2010, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. (It is not necessary for both to confirm on the exact same day.)

Absolute prices of the NASDAQ Composite, S&P 500 Composite (capitalization weighted), S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF (RSP), Growth Stocks, Value Stocks, Large- Mid- and Small Caps, and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Lines for the NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX rose above 18-month highs, confirming significant bullish trends in the broad U.S. stock market.

Even though the Largest Cap S&P 100 set a new 18-month price high, the S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) broke down below the lows of the previous 21 months. So, the largest caps continue to lag.

Consumer Discretionary, Financial, and Technology Stock Sectors rose to new 17-month price highs.

Crude Oil price broke out above previous 18-month highs and remains bullish.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.52% , PZJ , SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
6.78% , MBI , MBIA
4.90% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
5.89% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
4.19% , CMA , COMERICA
4.54% , CIEN.O , CIENA
5.79% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
1.21% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
6.17% , CAR , Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)
4.40% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
2.48% , YHOO , YAHOO
3.09% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
3.99% , NCR , NCR
3.16% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
0.70% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
0.58% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
2.87% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
0.62% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
3.53% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
1.44% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
1.53% , HUM , HUMANA
3.80% , KEY , KEYCORP
3.49% , MTB , M&T BANK
3.38% , AN , AUTONATION
2.31% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
3.81% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
6.16% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.57% , EP , EL PASO
2.29% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
2.43% , DELL , DELL
1.38% , FHN , FIRST TENNESSEE
0.44% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
4.57% , ZION , ZIONS
1.18% , ETFC.O , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
2.30% , USB , US BANCORP
1.82% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
2.42% , ADSK , AUTODESK
0.79% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.51% , DVY , Dividend DJ Select, DVY
3.10% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.86% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-0.44% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-0.88% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.59% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-2.46% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.75% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.35% , PWER , POWER ONE
-2.83% , KBH , KB HOME
-0.86% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
-1.89% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-1.57% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-1.05% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-1.83% , NOVL , NOVELL
-1.69% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-0.60% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.56% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-0.85% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.68% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-1.88% , SLM , SLM CORP
-0.61% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.12% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-1.31% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-0.69% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.07% , PID , Dividend International, PID
-1.06% , TNB , THOMAS & BETTS
-1.06% , AGN , ALLERGAN
-0.97% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.30% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.92% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-1.11% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.59% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-0.92% , ITT , ITT INDS
-0.36% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.79% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
-0.78% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
-1.73% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-1.45% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.06% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-0.91% , GENZ , GENZYME
-0.85% , DGX , QUEST DIAG

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 4-year highs on 3/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY closed above 17-month closing price highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.94, 31.66, 30.99, 29.90, 29.25, 28.66, 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance 33.76 and 34.50.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 16-month highs on 3/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI moved above 17-month highs on 4/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.79, 29.60, and 28.15. Resistance 32.00 and 35.00.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-week highs and rose above both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages on 4/5/10. But XLB/SPY is only neutral because the 50 is below the 200. Absolute price of XLB rose above 12-week highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 33.40, 32.85, and 32.58. Resistance 35.38 and 37.10.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 4/6/10. Although XLF/SPY is above both moving averages, the 50 remains below the 200, which is not bullish. Absolute price of XLF moved above 17-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 15.52, 15.37, and 15.12. Resistance 16.53 and 17.87.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) turned bearish on 4/1/10 when it broke down below 4-week lows and broke down below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price broke to a new 19-month high on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 22.90, 22.66, 22.52, 21.30, 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 23.83 and 24.68.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) broke down below 2-month lows on 4/6/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLP moved above 17-month highs on 3/30/10 and remains bullish. Support 27.23, 26.82, 26.49, 26.04, 25.93 and 25.71. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell sharply below 4-month lows on 4/6/10 but still remains technically neutral because the 50-day is still above the 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of XLV rose above 8-week highs on 3/22/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.84, 31.46, 31.00, 30.27, 30.65 and 29.55. Resistance 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 17-month lows on 3/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLE broke out above 2-month highs on 4/5/10. The price trend is bullish. Support 54.72, 52.67 and 51.34. Resistance 59.90 and 60.87.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell further below 2-year lows on 3/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU has been neutral most of the time since the peak on 12/14/09. Support 28.45 and 28.10. Resistance 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 10 weeks on 4/5/10. EEM/SPY is now above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, but the 50 remains below the 200, which is not favorable. Absolute price of EEM rose above its highs of the previous 20 months on 4/5/10 and remains bullish.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 7 weeks on 4/1/10 but is only neutral, with the 50- below the 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of EFA rose above its highs of the previous 10 weeks on 4/5/10 and remains bullish.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 3/10/10 and remains in bullish position above rising 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200. Absolute price of the NASDAQ closed above 18-month highs on 4/6/10 and is in bullish position relative to moving averages.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 5-month low on 4/6/10. IWF/IWD remains below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. In contrast, absolute price of IWF rose above 18-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 4/6/10 and is bullish. Absolute price of IWD rose above 17-month highs on 4/6/10 and is bullish.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above previous 6-year highs on 4/5/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP rose above 18-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) broke down below the lows of the previous 21 months on 4/6/10. OEX/SPX remains bearish below its falling 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. Conflicting with this bearish Relative Strength trend, absolute price of OEX remains bullish relative to its moving averages.

The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 17-month highs on 3/23/10. Absolute price of IWM rose further above 17-month highs on 4/6/10. Both remain in bullish position relative to key moving averages.

The Mid Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY rose above 17-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price broke out above previous 18-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 78.86, 77.05, 76.71, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract appears to be in an intermediate term neutral consolidation phase, fluctuating back and forth basically sideways through a relatively flat 50-day simple moving average. Support 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1145.8, 1163.0, 1170.2, 1196.8 and 1226.4.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has turned neutral for the intermediate-term trend after stabilizing since making a low on 1/29/10. Longer term, the trend appears unfavorable, since gold mining stocks have underperformed gold bullion since 9/17/09.

Silver/Gold Ratio has partially recovered since making a low on 2/8/10 and has improved from bearish to neutral.

Copper nearest futures contract price broke out to a new 20-month high on 4/5/10. Copper has been in a strong trend since 12/08. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.29, 3.1505, 3.034, and 2.811. Resistance 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell sharply below 10-month lows on 4/5/10 and remains bearish. Support 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 118.12, 119.18, 120.11 and 123.18.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 10-week highs on 3/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of JNK also rose above 10-week highs on 3/30/10 and remains bullish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned slightly bullish on 3/25/10, when TIP/IEF rose above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. This means investors now prefer a bit more inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP fell below its 50-day simple moving average on 2/9/10 and is not bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 6-day lows on 4/1/10, which has little significance. USD rose above its 10-month trading range on 3/25/10, which was significant. USD remains bullish. Support 80.775, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 83.145 and 83.335.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 48.3% Bulls versus 19.1% Bears as of 3/31/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 2.53, up from 2.39 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is still below its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index fell to a 22-month low of 16.08 on 4/6/10. A low and falling VIX suggests bullish complacency. VIX is down from a closing high of 80.86 set on 11/20/08. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index fell to a 31-month low of 17.09 on 4/1/10. A low and falling VXN suggests bullish complacency. VXN is down from a closing high of 80.64 set on 11/20/08. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio has been consistently neutral in recent months: its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which is two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.43 on 4/5/10, a low level that indicates significant bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a caution sign. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which is two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend in April, 2010, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price rose above 18-month highs on 4/6/10, again confirming its bullish trend. Support 1141.45, 1116.11, 1086.02, 1078.46, 1069.97, 1044.50, 1036.31 and 1029.54. Resistance 1220.03 and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1141.45, low of 3/15/2010
1116.11, high of 3/1/2010
1086.95, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1086.02, low of 2/25/2010
1078.46, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1069.97, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1036.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-2010 range
1029.54, Gann 25.0% of 2009-2010 range
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
969.08, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
965.69, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
908.62, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
851.55, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.31% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
2.29% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
2.21% REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.02% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.31% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.27% Networking, IGN
1.27% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.10% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.05% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.89% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.88% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.87% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.86% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.83% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.83% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.79% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.79% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.76% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.70% Austria Index, EWO
0.68% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.65% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.65% Australia Index, EWA
0.63% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.61% Mexico Index, EWW
0.59% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.59% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.54% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.54% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.51% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.49% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.48% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.47% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.45% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.45% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.42% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.40% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.40% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.40% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.37% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.37% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.35% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.35% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.34% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.33% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.32% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.30% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.29% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.29% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.29% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.28% Japan Index, EWJ
0.28% Russia MV, RSX
0.28% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.28% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.27% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.26% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.26% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.25% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.24% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.24% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.24% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.24% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.24% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.23% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.22% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.21% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.21% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.21% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.20% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.19% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.18% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.17% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.17% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.17% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.16% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.15% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.15% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.15% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.14% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.13% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.13% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.12% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.12% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.11% China 25 iS, FXI
0.09% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.09% Energy DJ, IYE
0.09% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.08% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.08% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.08% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.07% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.06% South Korea Index, EWY
0.06% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.05% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.03% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.00% Singapore Index, EWS
0.00% India PS, PIN
0.00% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.01% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.02% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.05% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.06% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.06% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.07% Dividend International, PID
-0.07% Canada Index, EWC
-0.08% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.10% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.11% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.11% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.11% Water Resources, PHO
-0.12% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.18% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.19% Energy Global, IXC
-0.20% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.20% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.24% Global 100, IOO
-0.28% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.29% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.30% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.32% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.34% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.36% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.53% Spain Index, EWP
-0.58% Germany Index, EWG
-0.59% France Index, EWQ
-0.60% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.61% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.61% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.63% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-0.69% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.69% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.75% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.79% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.83% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.86% Italy Index, EWI
-1.11% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.45% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR