NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 5/12/10. Absolute price of the NASDAQ also crossed above its 50-day simple moving average. Both are bullish.

Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 5/10/10, while absolute price of XLF crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 5/12/10. Both are bullish again.

Utilities Stock Sector absolute price crossed above the 50-day SMA on 5/12/10 and is now bullish.

Technology Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/10 and is now neutral. Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/10 and is now bullish.

Consumer Staples Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below the 50-day SMA on 5/12/10 and is now bearish.

Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 1-month lows on 5/12/10 and remains bearish.

Russell 1000 Value ETF absolute price of IWD returned to bullish as of 5/12/10 by crossing above the 200 SMA.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) and absolute price continued to move up and remain bullish.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) and absolute price continued to move up and remain bullish.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) and absolute price continued to move up and remain bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 22 months on 5/12/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of OEX fell below 2-month lows on 5/6/10 and remains neutral.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) continued to move further above rising 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 5/12/10 and remains bullish. This means investors are choosing more inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP also remains bullish.

Gold rose further above previous all-time highs on 5/12/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend for the long term. Resistance: none.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.81% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
4.18% , ACE , ACE
9.58% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
4.56% , IBM , IBM
3.58% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
0.72% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
1.05% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
2.44% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
4.48% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
1.60% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
3.50% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.38% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
4.46% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
3.83% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
5.81% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
0.54% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.85% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
3.34% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
2.44% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
6.06% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
1.19% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
2.27% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
1.15% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
7.20% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
2.77% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
3.93% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
1.44% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
1.75% , PCAR , PACCAR
2.60% , PZJ , SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
3.94% , IR , INGER RAND
5.45% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
3.70% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
0.97% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
2.53% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
4.73% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
3.57% , AYE , ALLEGHENY ENERGY
2.80% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
0.60% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
1.58% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
0.96% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.85% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
-2.04% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
-5.80% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-1.22% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-1.87% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.20% , MON , MONSANTO
-1.36% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-1.76% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
-0.70% , ECL , ECOLAB
-0.27% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
-0.90% , AVP , AVON
-0.72% , GOOG , Google
-0.22% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-0.18% , KR , KROGER
-0.51% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-0.02% , STT , STATE STREET
-0.11% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.04% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.02% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY rose above 30-month highs on 4/26/10 and, after trading below its 50-day SMA for 2 days, is now bullish again. Support 33.42 and 31.03. Resistance and 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 18-month highs on 4/29/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI rose above 18-month highs on 4/29/10 and, after trading below its 50-day SMA for 2 days, is now bullish again. Support 31.35, 30.85, 28.44, and 28.15. Resistance 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/10 and is now neutral. Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/10 and is now bullish. Support 22.49 and 20.64. Resistance 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 5/10/10, and so it is bullish again. Absolute price of XLF crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 5/12/10, and so it is bullish again. Support 15.68, 15.54, and 14.56. Resistance 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below the 50-day SMA on 5/12/10 and is now bearish. Absolute price of XLP fell to an 8-month low and tested the 200-day SMA on 5/6/10. Price trend remains neutral. Support 27.27, 26.99, and 24.95. Resistance 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 9-month lows on 5/11/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and remains neutral. Support 32.14, 32.04, and 29.48. Resistance 35.47 and 37.56.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 1-month lows on 5/12/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLE crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and remains neutral. Support 56.63, 52.29, and 51.34. Resistance 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 18-month lows on 4/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLV crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10. Price trend remains neutral. Support 30.24, 30.24, 28.53, and 27.96. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose above 6-week highs on 5/7/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of XLU crossed above the 50-day SMA on 5/12/10 and is now bullish. Support 29.61, 28.68, and 25.76. Resistance 30.91, 31.64 and 32.08.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell to a 12-month low on 5/6/10. EEM/SPY trend turned bearish on 4/16/10, according to strict moving average analysis. Absolute price of EEM fell below 3-month lows on 5/6/10 and, following a 2-day recovery, now is neutral.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 5/6/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA fell below 10-month lows on 5/6/10 and is bearishly below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 5/12/10 thereby turning bullish again. Absolute price of the NASDAQ also crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 5/12/10 thereby turning bullish again.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 5-month low on 4/14/10 but has stabilized somewhat since. IWF/IWD remains below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of IWF fell below 8-week lows on 5/6/10 and remains neutral.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 5/3/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of IWD returned to bullish as of 5/12/10 by crossing above the 200 SMA.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) continued to move up on 5/12/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP also continued to move up on 5/12/10 and remains bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 22 months on 5/12/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of OEX fell below 2-month lows on 5/6/10 and remains neutral.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) continued to move up on 5/12/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of IWM also continued to move up on 5/12/10 and remains bullish.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) continued to move up on 5/12/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY also continued to move up on 5/12/10 and remains bullish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 2-month lows on 5/7/10 and remains neutral. Oil appears to be in a correction phase for the short term. Longer term, Oil remains bullish. Support 74.51, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 78.81, 81.29, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price rose further above previous all-time highs on 5/12/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend for the long term. Support 1184.4, 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: none.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and is now neutral. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 5/10/10 and remains bullish.

Silver/Gold Ratio remains neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Copper nearest futures price fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 5/5/10, again confirming a bearish trend for the short-term. Copper entered a correction phase since peaking at 3.68 on 4/12/10. Longer term, Copper remains bullish. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.1285, 3.0055, and 2.811. Resistance 3.2675, 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price jumped up to a new 12-month high on 5/6/10. Support 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 124.16, and 125.03.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains neutral.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) continued to move further above rising 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 5/12/10 and remains bullish. This means investors are choosing more inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP also remains bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved above 12-month highs on 5/6/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend. Support 83.07, 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 85.46, 87.22 and 89.71.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 47.2% Bulls versus 24.7% Bears as of 5/12/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.91, down from 2.99 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index rose to a 13-month high of 42.15 on 5/7/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index rose to a 13-month high of 42.03 on 5/7/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.80 on 5/7/10, a high level that indicates moderately bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price fell below 2-month lows on 5/6/10 and remains neutral. The S&P fell more than 8% from its peak on 4/23/10 at 1217.28 to its low on 5/7/10 at 1,110.88, based on closing prices. Minor corrections of between 5% and 10% are typical in bull markets. Support 1135.13, 1065.79, 1044.50, 1029.38, 1019.95, 1012.42, and 1008.55. Resistance 1219.80, 1220.03 and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1135.13, high of 5/7/2010
1065.79, low of 5/6/2010
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

5.45% Russia MV, RSX
4.46% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
3.88% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
3.83% Sweden Index, EWD
3.29% Microcap Russell, IWC
3.14% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
3.13% South Africa Index, EZA
3.08% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
3.07% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
3.06% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
3.01% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
2.98% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.96% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.82% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
2.77% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.77% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
2.76% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
2.75% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
2.61% Technology SPDR, XLK
2.60% Water Resources, PHO
2.60% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.58% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
2.56% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
2.46% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
2.46% Networking, IGN
2.44% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
2.38% Germany Index, EWG
2.36% Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.36% Technology DJ US, IYW
2.36% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
2.32% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.29% Austria Index, EWO
2.28% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
2.21% Industrial SPDR, XLI
2.15% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
2.13% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.08% Materials SPDR, XLB
2.07% MidCap Russell, IWR
2.04% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.99% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.97% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.89% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
1.87% Belgium Index, EWK
1.83% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.81% Singapore Index, EWS
1.77% Canada Index, EWC
1.75% Mexico Index, EWW
1.72% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.71% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.70% European VIPERs, VGK
1.66% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.66% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.65% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.64% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.63% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.62% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.61% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.61% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.60% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.58% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
1.56% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.56% France Index, EWQ
1.54% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.51% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.49% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.49% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.48% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.45% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.41% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.40% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.40% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.39% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.39% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.39% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.36% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.34% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.32% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.32% Energy Global, IXC
1.31% Energy DJ, IYE
1.30% Global 100, IOO
1.29% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.27% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.26% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.26% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.25% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.25% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.24% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.23% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.22% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
1.21% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.21% Financial Preferred, PGF
1.21% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.19% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.17% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.14% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.14% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.13% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.13% EAFE Index, EFA
1.10% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.09% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.05% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.05% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.02% Dividend International, PID
0.95% Spain Index, EWP
0.95% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.92% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.90% Japan Index, EWJ
0.90% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.87% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.85% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.83% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.82% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.82% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.77% India PS, PIN
0.73% Australia Index, EWA
0.69% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.66% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.62% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.62% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.60% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.54% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.50% China 25 iS, FXI
0.43% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.40% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.39% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.36% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.32% Italy Index, EWI
0.22% South Korea Index, EWY
0.12% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.03% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.04% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.11% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.25% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.41% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.76% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT