Technology Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) gave a bearish signal when it fell below 2-week lows and fell below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price also fell below 2-week lows but remains bullishly above its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.
Gold rose above the highs of the previous 6 months and remains bullish.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) absolute price rose above 3-month highs and remains bullish.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
36.46% , PWER , POWER ONE
4.33% , SUN , SUNOCO
2.76% , AGN , ALLERGAN
2.68% , FPL , FPL GROUP INC
2.79% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
2.86% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
4.40% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
0.71% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
1.26% , CIEN.O , CIENA
3.16% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
4.00% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.06% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.15% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.36% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
0.91% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
0.81% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.78% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.93% , EIX , EDISON INTL
0.90% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.83% , PGN , PROGRESS ENERGY
2.17% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
0.71% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
1.74% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
0.92% , ETR , ENTERGY
0.77% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
0.99% , SYY , SYSCO
1.26% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
0.90% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
3.43% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.95% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.21% , D , DOMINION RSCS
1.38% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
0.76% , EXC , EXELON CORP
0.62% , PCG , PG&E
0.18% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.40% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.22% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.32% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.67% , KEY , KEYCORP
0.43% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.14% , PZJ , SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
-1.55% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-9.39% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-10.24% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-6.51% , FISV , FISERV
-2.89% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-9.58% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
-5.53% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-8.94% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-6.69% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-2.13% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-8.42% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-3.02% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-5.88% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
-2.16% , PTV , PACTIV
-3.02% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-1.89% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-3.45% , NCR , NCR
-8.68% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-3.80% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-2.05% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
-5.55% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-4.34% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-5.35% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-5.32% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-2.48% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-2.59% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-4.14% , ITT , ITT INDS
-2.29% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-3.59% , CR , CRANE
-2.28% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
-7.68% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-5.32% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-1.27% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-4.66% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-3.13% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
-5.41% , AET , AETNA
-3.29% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-6.24% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-2.34% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY rose above 2-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Support 33.87, 33.15, 31.94, 31.66, 30.99, 29.90, 29.25, 28.66, 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance and 38.25 and 39.09.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 18-month highs on 4/29/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI moved above 18-month highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.73, 31.27, 29.79, 29.60, and 28.15. Resistance 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) gave a bearish signal when it fell below 2-week lows and both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages on 4/30/10. Absolute price also fell below 2-week lows on 4/30/10 but remains bullishly above its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 23.07, 22.90, 22.66, 22.52, 21.30, 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 24.68 and 25.69.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) broke below 6-week lows on 4/27/10 and remains neutral. Support 15.81, 15.52, 15.37, and 15.12. Resistance 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell sharply on 4/27/10 and is now bearish again. Absolute price of XLB briefly moved above 18-month highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Support 33.74, 33.40, 32.85, and 32.58. Resistance 35.16, 35.38 and 37.10.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 17-month lows on 3/25/10 but since has recovered into the neutral zone. Absolute price of XLE broke out above 18-month highs on 4/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 59.52, 58.58, 58.27, 54.72, 52.67 and 51.34. Resistance 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) broke down below 19-month lows on 4/29/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLP broke down below 6-week lows on 4/27/10 and broke below its 50-day simple moving average. The price trend is now neutral. Support 27.76, 27.23, 26.82, 26.49, 26.04, 25.93 and 25.71. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 18-month lows on 4/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLV fell below 2-month lows on 4/27/10 and remains neutral relative to 50- and 200-day averages. Support 30.49, 30.27, and 29.55. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 3-year lows on 4/15/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above 3-month highs on 4/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.95, 29.30, 28.45, and 28.10. Resistance 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been underperforming since 10/14/09. EEM/SPY trend turned bearish on 4/16/10, according to strict moving average analysis. Absolute price of EEM fell below 2-week lows on 4/16/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 14-month lows on 4/28/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks on 4/27/10 and turned neutral relative to 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 4/27/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of the NASDAQ closed above 22-month highs on 4/23/10 and remains bullish.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 5-month low on 4/14/10. IWF/IWD remains below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. In contrast, absolute price of IWF rose above 18-month highs on 4/23/10 and remains bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.
Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 6-month highs on 4/14/10 and is bullish. Absolute price of IWD rose above 18-month highs on 4/23/10 and is bullish.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above previous 6-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP rose above 19-month highs on 4/23/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 21 months on 4/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of OEX remains bullish relative to its moving averages.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 17-month highs on 4/29/10. Absolute price of IWM rose above 17-month highs on 4/26/10. Both remain in bullish position relative to key moving averages.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY rose above 21-month highs on 4/23/10 and remains bullish.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price appears to have entered a correction since peaking at 87.09 on 4/6/10. Minor corrections are normal. Longer term, Oil remains bullish. Support 78.86, 77.05, 76.71, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose above the highs of the previous 6 months on 4/30/10, thereby confirming the bullish trend for the intermediate-term trend. Longer term, Gold remains bullish. Support 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1170.7, 1196.8 and 1226.4.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 3-month highs on 4/29/10, thereby confirming an uptrend trend for the intermediate term. Absolute price also rose above 3-month highs on 4/30/10 and remains bullish.
Silver/Gold Ratio firmed up since 2/8/10 and remains neutral.
Copper nearest futures price fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks on 4/29/10, thereby confirming a bearish signal for the short-term trend. Copper entered a minor correction since peaking at 3.68 on 4/12/10. Longer term, Copper remains bullish. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.29, 3.1505, 3.034, and 2.811. Resistance 3.795 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price jumped up to a 5-week high on 4/30/10, in an obvious flight to safety. Support 115.15, 114.06. 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 119.18, 120.11 and 123.18.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 3-month highs on 4/15/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of JNK rose above 3-month highs on 4/21/10 and remains bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose to a 3-month high on 4/29/10 and remains bullish. This means investors prefer more inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP rose above 4-month highs on 4/30/10 and remains bullish.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved above 11-month high on 4/28/10, thereby showing renewed strength after consolidating gains since peaking at 82.52 on 3/25/10. Longer term, USD remains bullish. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 82.52, 83.145 and 83.335.
The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 54.0% Bulls versus 18.0% Bears as of 4/28/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 3.00, down from 3.06 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is near its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
VIX Fear Index fell to a 33-month low of 15.23 on 4/12/10. A low and falling VIX suggests bullish complacency. VIX is down from a closing high of 80.86 set on 11/20/08. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
VXN Fear Index fell to a 31-month low of 15.53 on 4/14/10. A low and falling VXN suggests bullish complacency. VXN is down from a closing high of 80.64 set on 11/20/08. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.
ISEE Call/Put Ratio rose to 1.85 on 4/15/10, a high level that indicates extreme bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a sign to be alert. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.32 on 4/14/10, a low level that indicates extreme bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a sign to be alert. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.
The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price rose above 18-month highs on 4/23/10, again confirming its bullish trend. Support 1175.12, and 1152.83, 1132.15, and 1111.46. Resistance 1220.03 and 1228.74.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1175.12, low of 4/9/2010
1152.83, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1150.45, high of 1/19/2010
1132.15, Gann 50.0% of 2010 range
1111.46, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1086.02, low of 2/25/2010
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1089.29, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-2010 range
1081.54, Gann 25.0% of 2009-2010 range
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.15% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.06% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.95% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.90% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.81% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.78% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.71% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.66% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.61% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.43% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.41% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.40% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.34% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.33% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.32% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.30% Austria Index, EWO
0.26% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.12% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.07% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.03% Spain Index, EWP
-0.24% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.29% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.34% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.34% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.37% Germany Index, EWG
-0.40% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.48% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.50% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.57% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.58% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.66% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.81% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.82% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.83% Dividend International, PID
-0.86% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.89% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.89% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.90% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.90% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.91% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.05% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.06% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.08% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.08% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.08% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.10% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.12% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.13% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.17% France Index, EWQ
-1.20% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.20% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.24% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.25% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.25% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.26% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.27% Energy Global, IXC
-1.27% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.28% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.28% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.29% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.29% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.34% Global 100, IOO
-1.36% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.36% Canada Index, EWC
-1.40% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.42% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.47% Italy Index, EWI
-1.55% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.55% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.56% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.57% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.61% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.62% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.63% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.63% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.64% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.65% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.65% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.65% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.67% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.69% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.69% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.70% India PS, PIN
-1.71% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.71% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.72% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.74% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.76% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.79% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.81% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.82% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.90% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.93% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.93% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.94% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.98% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-1.98% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.99% Russia MV, RSX
-2.05% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.05% MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.08% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-2.09% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.09% Networking, IGN
-2.09% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.09% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.10% Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.13% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-2.17% Water Resources, PHO
-2.17% Australia Index, EWA
-2.18% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-2.22% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.22% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.24% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.28% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.29% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.37% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.37% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.42% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.42% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.47% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.59% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.68% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.73% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-2.89% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.90% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.93% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-3.11% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-3.11% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-3.15% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-3.19% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-3.19% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-3.22% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-3.41% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-3.42% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-4.34% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-4.34% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-5.53% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
