Stock Market: Gold broke out above 3-month highs.

Gold nearest futures contract price broke out above 3-month highs on 4/7/10. This could mark the end of the recent intermediate-term, neutral consolidation phase and the beginning of another upwave in a major bull market. Support 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1163.0, 1170.2, 1196.8 and 1226.4.

The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 17-month highs on 4/7/10.

The broad stock market appeared to have experienced a normal minor price pullback.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.61% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
6.50% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
8.77% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
6.53% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
10.53% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
3.04% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
3.27% , FAST , Fastenal Company
2.45% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
2.50% , DRI , DARDEN REST
2.83% , TXT , TEXTRON
2.29% , FRE , FREDDIE MAC
2.60% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
4.25% , IP , INTL PAPER
3.42% , BIG , BIG LOTS
1.85% , FNM , FANNIE MAE
2.64% , PWER , POWER ONE
1.47% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.98% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
3.32% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
1.08% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
1.00% , ETN , EATON
2.00% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
1.63% , C , CITIGROUP
2.25% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
0.56% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.32% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.28% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.41% , KR , KROGER
0.83% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
1.89% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
0.53% , SMH , Semiconductor H, SMH
1.40% , TER , TERADYNE
1.57% , ACE , ACE
1.08% , LOW , LOWES
0.45% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
1.26% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
0.62% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
1.04% , GCI , GANNETT
1.18% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
0.76% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.58% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-0.41% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-0.93% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-5.59% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-1.29% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.73% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-2.45% , MON , MONSANTO
-4.71% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-0.95% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-3.43% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-2.51% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
-1.63% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-1.13% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-2.12% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-1.07% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
-1.84% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-2.47% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-2.62% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-1.58% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-2.38% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
-0.52% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-2.54% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.59% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-1.64% , NE , NOBLE
-2.76% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-2.09% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-3.83% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-0.56% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-4.97% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-2.43% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-0.88% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-3.27% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-0.68% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.23% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-2.67% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-2.93% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-0.85% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-0.54% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.66% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-3.71% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 4-year highs on 3/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY closed above 17-month closing price highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.94, 31.66, 30.99, 29.90, 29.25, 28.66, 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance 33.76 and 34.50.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 16-month highs on 3/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI moved above 17-month highs on 4/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.79, 29.60, and 28.15. Resistance 32.00 and 35.00.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-week highs and rose above both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages on 4/5/10. But XLB/SPY is only neutral because the 50 is below the 200. Absolute price of XLB rose above 12-week highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 33.40, 32.85, and 32.58. Resistance 35.38 and 37.10.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 4/7/10. Although XLF/SPY is above both moving averages, the 50 remains below the 200, which is not bullish. Absolute price of XLF moved above 17-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 15.52, 15.37, and 15.12. Resistance 16.53 and 17.87.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) turned bearish on 4/1/10 when it broke down below 4-week lows and broke down below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price broke to a new 19-month high on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 22.90, 22.66, 22.52, 21.30, 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 23.83 and 24.68.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell sharply below 4-month lows on 4/6/10 but still remains technically neutral because the 50-day is still above the 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of XLV rose above 8-week highs on 3/22/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.84, 31.46, 31.00, 30.27, 30.65 and 29.55. Resistance 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) broke down below 2-month lows on 4/6/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLP moved above 17-month highs on 3/30/10 and remains bullish. Support 27.23, 26.82, 26.49, 26.04, 25.93 and 25.71. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 17-month lows on 3/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLE broke out above 2-month highs on 4/5/10. The price trend is bullish. Support 54.72, 52.67 and 51.34. Resistance 59.90 and 60.87.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell further below 2-year lows on 3/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU has been neutral most of the time since the peak on 12/14/09. Support 28.45 and 28.10. Resistance 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 10 weeks on 4/5/10. EEM/SPY is now above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, but the 50 remains below the 200, which is not favorable. Absolute price of EEM rose above its highs of the previous 20 months on 4/5/10 and remains bullish.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 7 weeks on 4/1/10 but is only neutral, with the 50- below the 200-day simple moving average. Absolute price of EFA rose above its highs of the previous 10 weeks on 4/5/10 and remains bullish.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 3/10/10 and remains in bullish position above rising 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200. Absolute price of the NASDAQ closed above 18-month highs on 4/6/10 and is in bullish position relative to moving averages.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 5-month low on 4/6/10. IWF/IWD remains below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. In contrast, absolute price of IWF rose above 18-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 4/6/10 and is bullish. Absolute price of IWD rose above 17-month highs on 4/6/10 and is bullish.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above previous 6-year highs on 4/5/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP rose above 18-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) broke down below the lows of the previous 21 months on 4/6/10. OEX/SPX remains bearish below its falling 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. Conflicting with this bearish Relative Strength trend, absolute price of OEX remains bullish relative to its moving averages.

The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 17-month highs on 4/7/10. Absolute price of IWM rose further above 17-month highs on 4/6/10. Both remain in bullish position relative to key moving averages.

The Mid Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY rose above 17-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price broke out above previous 18-month highs on 4/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 78.86, 77.05, 76.71, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract broke out above 3-month highs on 4/7/10. This may mark the end of the recent intermediate-term, neutral consolidation phase and the beginning of another upwave in a major bull market. Support 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1163.0, 1170.2, 1196.8 and 1226.4.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has turned neutral for the intermediate-term trend after stabilizing since making a low on 1/29/10. Longer term, the trend appears unfavorable, since gold mining stocks have underperformed gold bullion since 9/17/09.

Silver/Gold Ratio has partially recovered since making a low on 2/8/10 and has improved from bearish to neutral.

Copper nearest futures contract price broke out to a new 20-month high on 4/5/10. Copper has been in a strong trend since 12/08. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.29, 3.1505, 3.034, and 2.811. Resistance 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell sharply below 10-month lows on 4/5/10 and remains bearish. Support 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 118.12, 119.18, 120.11 and 123.18.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 10-week highs on 3/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of JNK also rose above 10-week highs on 3/30/10 and remains bullish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned slightly bullish on 3/25/10, when TIP/IEF rose above 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. This means investors now prefer a bit more inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP fell below its 50-day simple moving average on 2/9/10 and is not bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price has had a minor consolidation in a major uptrend since peaking at 82.52 on 3/25/10. A minor consolidation is normal in an major uptrend and carries little significance. USD rose above its 10-month trading range on 3/25/10, which was significant. USD remains bullish. Support 80.775, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 82.52, 83.145 and 83.335.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 48.9% Bulls versus 18.9% Bears as of 4/7/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 2.59, up from 2.53 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is still below its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index fell to a 22-month low of 16.08 on 4/6/10. A low and falling VIX suggests bullish complacency. VIX is down from a closing high of 80.86 set on 11/20/08. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index fell to a 31-month low of 17.09 on 4/1/10. A low and falling VXN suggests bullish complacency. VXN is down from a closing high of 80.64 set on 11/20/08. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio has been consistently neutral in recent months: its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which is two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.43 on 4/5/10, a low level that indicates significant bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a caution sign. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which is two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend in April, 2010, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price rose above 18-month highs on 4/6/10, again confirming its bullish trend. Support 1141.45, 1116.11, 1086.02, 1078.46, 1069.97, 1044.50, 1036.31 and 1029.54. Resistance 1220.03 and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1141.45, low of 3/15/2010
1116.11, high of 3/1/2010
1086.95, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1086.02, low of 2/25/2010
1078.46, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1069.97, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1036.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-2010 range
1029.54, Gann 25.0% of 2009-2010 range
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
969.08, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
965.69, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
908.62, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
851.55, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

1.32% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.28% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.19% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.91% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.90% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.71% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.67% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.62% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.56% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.51% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.44% Networking, IGN
0.43% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.38% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.33% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.23% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.16% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.15% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.10% Austria Index, EWO
0.06% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.05% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.00% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.03% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.08% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.09% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.09% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.10% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.15% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.17% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.18% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.18% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.23% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.24% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.25% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.25% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.25% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.25% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.26% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.29% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.32% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.34% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.36% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.37% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.37% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.38% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.38% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.39% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.40% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.41% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.43% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.44% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.44% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.47% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.49% Spain Index, EWP
-0.50% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.50% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.51% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.51% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.51% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.52% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.53% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.53% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.54% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.54% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.55% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.55% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.56% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.56% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.57% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.57% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.57% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.60% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.61% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.61% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.62% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.63% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.63% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.64% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.64% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.64% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.64% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.65% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.66% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.66% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.66% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.67% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.68% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.68% Global 100, IOO
-0.69% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.70% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.70% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.70% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.73% Australia Index, EWA
-0.73% Water Resources, PHO
-0.74% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.77% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.78% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.79% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.84% Canada Index, EWC
-0.84% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.87% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.87% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.88% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.88% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.90% Dividend International, PID
-0.91% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.91% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.94% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.96% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.96% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.98% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.99% Energy Global, IXC
-0.99% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.99% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.99% Germany Index, EWG
-1.00% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.01% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.09% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.10% India PS, PIN
-1.11% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.13% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.18% France Index, EWQ
-1.19% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.24% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.27% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.29% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.29% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.37% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.46% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.55% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.79% Russia MV, RSX
-1.95% Italy Index, EWI
-1.99% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.15% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-2.20% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.25% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.54% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICFStock Market: Gold broke out above 3-month highs.