Industrial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above 16-month highs and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI moved above 17-month highs and remains bullish.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.60% , CAR , Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)
3.20% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
5.33% , NKE , NIKE STK B
3.45% , TEVA , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited
4.73% , AET , AETNA
3.20% , FDX , FEDEX
3.86% , HUM , HUMANA
2.90% , CI , CIGNA
0.61% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
2.54% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
3.93% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
2.18% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
1.59% , EFX , EQUIFAX
0.60% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
3.04% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
2.15% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
1.59% , DD , DU PONT
1.46% , MTB , M&T BANK
2.57% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
2.37% , FHN , FIRST TENNESSEE
2.56% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
1.36% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
1.13% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
1.02% , CTAS , CINTAS
2.45% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
1.29% , AEE , AMEREN
0.90% , WAT , WATERS
0.41% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
0.94% , JCP , JC PENNEY
1.86% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
0.95% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
1.99% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
0.91% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.63% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
2.15% , BA , BOEING
1.73% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
5.26% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
1.81% , MMM , 3M
0.97% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.25% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.85% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-5.33% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-4.48% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-4.84% , NBR , NABORS
-4.80% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-2.59% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-3.21% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-3.35% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-1.31% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-3.97% , DYN , DYNEGY
-4.40% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-0.83% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-3.93% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-2.68% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-2.62% , F , FORD MOTOR
-0.98% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-1.68% , TNB , THOMAS & BETTS
-1.34% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-1.76% , GR , GOODRICH CORP
-2.41% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.09% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.26% , GCI , GANNETT
-0.63% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-2.82% , OIH , Oil Services H, OIH
-1.29% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.69% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-1.73% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.02% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-1.70% , IGE , Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-2.44% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
-1.38% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.54% , WFMI , Whole Foods Market Inc
-3.54% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.48% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-1.27% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-2.23% , SLM , SLM CORP
-0.07% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-4.30% , KEY , KEYCORP
-0.79% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
-0.97% , AN , AUTONATION
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 4-year highs on 3/12/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.94, 31.66, 30.99, 29.90, 29.25, 28.66, 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance 33.76 and 34.50.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above 16-month highs on 3/18/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI moved above 17-month highs on 3/18/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.79, 29.60, and 28.15. Resistance 32.00 and 35.00.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) has been consolidating below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages since 2/19/10. Absolute price rose above 9-week highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Support 22.52, 21.30, 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 22.96, and 23.05.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) has been consolidating below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages since 1/21/10. Absolute price of XLB rose above 8-week highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.58, 30.79, 29.48, 28.95 and 28.67. Resistance 34.52 and 35.38.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 4-month lows on 3/17/10 and remains below 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of XLV rose above 8-week highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.46, 31.00, 30.27, 30.65 and 29.55. Resistance 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above 4-month highs on 3/17/10. Although XLF/SPY is above both moving averages, the 50 remains below the 200, which is not bullish. Absolute price of XLF moved above 16-month highs on 3/17/10, and moving average analysis of XLF price remains bullish. Support 15.37, 15.12, 14.33, 13.95, 13.51 and 13.08. Resistance 16.53 and 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) turned bearish on 3/9/10 when it fell below its 50-day simple moving average. XLP/SPY remains below its 200, and the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Absolute price of XLP moved above 17-month highs on 3/18/10 and remains bullish. Support 27.23, 26.82, 26.49, 26.04, 25.93 and 25.71. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 17-month lows on 3/18/10 and remains bearish. In contrast, absolute price of XLE moved above 8-week highs on 3/17/10 and remains in bullish relative to 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 57.29, 56.84, 54.72, 52.67 and 51.34. Resistance 59.90 and 60.87.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell further below 2-year lows on 3/12/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above 8-week highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish, above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 29.75, 28.45 and 28.10. Resistance 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains bearish, but absolute price of EEM rose to a 8-week high on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains bearish, but absolute price of EFA rose to a 8-week high on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 3/10/10 and remains in bullish position above rising 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is above the 200. Absolute price of the NASDAQ rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and is in bullish position relative to moving averages.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 4-month low on 3/17/10. IWF/IWD fell below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages in March 2010. In contrast, absolute price of IWF rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and is bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.
Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 4-month highs on 3/17/10 and is bullish. Absolute price of IWD rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and is bullish.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above previous 6-year highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP rose above 18-month highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) broke down below the lows of the previous 20 months on 3/10/10. OEX/SPX remains bearish below its falling 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 is below the 200. Conflicting with this bearish Relative Strength trend, absolute price of OEX remains bullish relative to its moving averages.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 17-month highs on 3/10/10. Absolute price of IWM rose further above 17-month highs on 3/17/10. Both remain in bullish position relative to key moving averages.
The Mid Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. In addition, absolute price of MDY rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose to the upper end of its trading range on 3/17/10. Oil remains in strong position above 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 80.16, 77.05, 76.71, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 83.95, 85.82 and 98.65.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose above 6-day highs on 3/17/10. Gold remains bullish, above its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, and the 50 remains comfortably above the 200. Support 1097.3, 1088.5, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1145.8, 1163.0, 1170.2, 1196.8 and 1226.4.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) remains neutral, between 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of GDX also is neutral. The gold mining stocks have underperformed gold bullion since 9/17/09.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above its 2000-day simple moving average on 3/17/10, but the 50 remains below the 200, and so the Silver/Gold Ratio is neutral. Mixed indications from the Silver/Gold Ratio still implies some uncertainty about prospects for the world economy.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose to the upper end of its trading range on 3/17/10. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.1505, 3.034, 2.811, 2.64 and 2.4575. Resistance 3.4665, 3.47, 3.544, 3.5625, 3.5625, and 3.79.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose above 3-month highs on 3/17/10. The 50 MA remains below the 200 simple moving average, which is not bullish. The Bond remains stuck in a choppy/sideways/neutral trend since its June, 2009, low at 113.04. Support 115.24, 114.16, 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 119.18, 120.11 and 123.18.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) slipped slightly below its 50-day simple moving average on 3/17/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of JNK rose above 6-week highs on 3/10/10 and remains bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) remains neutral, stuck between 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Investors appear unconcerned about inflation.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 6-week lows on 3/17/10, which might be taken as a warning of a short-term correction. USD remains in strong position above 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, however, so it may be premature to turn bearish. Support 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 81.43, 81.795 and 83.335.
The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 46.1% Bulls versus 21.3% Bears as of 3/17/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 2.16, up from 1.90 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is still well below its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
VIX Fear Index fell to a 22-month low of 16.31 on 3/18/10. A low and falling VIX suggests bullish complacency. VIX is down from a closing high of 80.86 set on 11/20/08. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
VXN Fear Index fell to a 31-month low of 17.16 on 3/18/10.. A low and falling VXN suggests bullish complacency. VXN is down from a closing high of 80.64 set on 11/20/08. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.
ISEE Call/Put Ratio has been consistently neutral in recent months: its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which is two standard deviations from the mean.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.43 on 3/9/10, a low level that indicates significant bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a caution sign. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which is two standard deviations from the mean.
The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 3/17/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 17 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/10 and remains bullish. Support 1141.45, 1116.11, 1086.02, 1078.46, 1069.97, 1044.50, 1036.31 and 1029.54. Resistance 1220.03 and 1228.74.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1141.45, low of 3/15/2010
1116.11, high of 3/1/2010
1086.95, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1086.02, low of 2/25/2010
1078.46, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1069.97, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2/5-2/19/10 range
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1036.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-2010 range
1029.54, Gann 25.0% of 2009-2010 range
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
969.08, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
965.69, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
908.62, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
851.55, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.97% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.95% South Africa Index, EZA
0.77% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.68% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.68% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.68% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.40% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.39% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.34% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.30% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.17% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.15% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.13% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.12% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.11% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.09% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.08% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.08% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.06% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.04% Mexico Index, EWW
0.01% Networking, IGN
0.00% Water Resources, PHO
0.00% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.00% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.00% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.03% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.03% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.04% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.05% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.05% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.05% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.09% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.09% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.10% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.11% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.12% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.12% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.13% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.16% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.18% Global 100, IOO
-0.18% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.20% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.20% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.21% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.21% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.23% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.23% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.23% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.24% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.24% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.24% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.26% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.26% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.26% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.27% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.28% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.28% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.31% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.31% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.31% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.31% India PS, PIN
-0.32% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.33% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.33% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.33% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.37% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.39% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.40% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.40% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.41% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.42% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.43% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.43% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.44% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.44% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.45% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.45% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.46% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.46% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.47% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.48% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.49% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.49% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.51% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.51% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.51% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.54% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.57% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.58% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.59% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.59% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.59% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.62% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.62% Dividend International, PID
-0.63% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.63% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.64% Energy Global, IXC
-0.64% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.67% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.67% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.69% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.69% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.70% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.71% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.74% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.75% Australia Index, EWA
-0.76% Italy Index, EWI
-0.76% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.77% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.82% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.83% Germany Index, EWG
-0.83% France Index, EWQ
-0.86% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.90% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.92% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-0.94% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.95% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.96% Canada Index, EWC
-1.04% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.06% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.09% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.14% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.16% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.20% Spain Index, EWP
-1.27% Austria Index, EWO
-1.29% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.29% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.38% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.39% Russia MV, RSX
-1.49% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.50% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.54% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.70% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-2.41% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.50% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR