Materials Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell to its lowest level in 3 months on 5/3/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB fell to its lowest level in 5 weeks on 5/3/10 and has neared the neutral zone.

Copper fell below the lows of the previous 2 months on 5/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish signal for the short-term trend. Copper entered a correction phase since peaking at 3.68 on 4/12/10.

Stock prices generally rebounded on Monday, in reaction to better news. Volume contracted, however, thereby denying confirmation of renewed buying demand.

The Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above its closing price highs of the previous 18 months.

The Dow-Jones Utilities Average closed above its closing price highs of the previous 3 months.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 5/3/10 and remains bullish.

Crude Oil rose to test 18 month highs above 87 on 5/3/10 but surrendered gains by the close. Short term, Oil may still be stuck in the same consolidation phase it entered on 4/6/10. Longer term, Oil remains bullish.

Gold rose above the highs of the previous 6 months on 5/3/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend for the intermediate-term. Longer term, Gold remains bullish.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
14.57% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
3.72% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
2.05% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
1.74% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
0.89% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
9.24% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
2.08% , IGW , Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1.13% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
1.85% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
1.05% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
1.85% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
4.46% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
2.81% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
6.27% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
3.21% , INTU , INTUIT
1.89% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
1.04% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
1.44% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
4.51% , AES , AES
0.97% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
1.84% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
1.83% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
0.96% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
0.69% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
0.95% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
1.30% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
0.72% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.83% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
3.44% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
2.04% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
1.97% , DSG , Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
3.56% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
4.62% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
1.90% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
3.77% , GR , GOODRICH CORP
0.44% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.34% , PTE , Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
6.13% , TER , TERADYNE
1.05% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
2.42% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.73% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.85% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-1.23% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-2.08% , AA , ALCOA
-2.37% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-1.31% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-1.00% , CLX , CLOROX
-1.60% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
-0.61% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.12% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-0.92% , KG , KING PHARM
-0.90% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-0.78% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-0.65% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.33% , AVP , AVON
-0.26% , CAR , Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)
-0.65% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.79% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-0.72% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
-0.77% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-1.62% , SYY , SYSCO
-0.49% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-0.37% , IP , INTL PAPER
-0.19% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.29% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.21% , CB , CHUBB
-0.95% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-0.30% , BLL , BALL
-1.08% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.31% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.10% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
-0.09% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.06% , XLB , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.05% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY rose above 2-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Support 33.87, 33.15, 31.94, 31.66, 30.99, 29.90, 29.25, 28.66, 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance and 38.25 and 39.09.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 18-month highs on 4/29/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI moved above 18-month highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.73, 31.27, 29.79, 29.60, and 28.15. Resistance 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) gave a bearish signal when it fell below 2-week lows and both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages on 4/30/10. Absolute price also fell below 2-week lows on 4/30/10 but remains bullishly above its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Support 23.07, 22.90, 22.66, 22.52, 21.30, 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 24.68 and 25.69.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) broke below 6-week lows on 4/27/10 and remains neutral. Support 15.81, 15.52, 15.37, and 15.12. Resistance 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell to its lowest level in 3 months on 5/3/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB fell to its lowest level in 5 weeks on 5/3/10 and has neared the neutral zone. Support 33.40, 32.85, and 32.58. Resistance 34.80 and 35.47.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 17-month lows on 3/25/10 but since has recovered into the neutral zone. Absolute price of XLE broke out above 18-month highs on 4/23/10 and remains bullish. Support 58.58, 58.27, 54.72, 52.67 and 51.34. Resistance 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) broke down below 19-month lows on 4/29/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLP broke down below 6-week lows on 4/27/10 and broke below its 50-day simple moving average. The price trend is now neutral. Support 27.76, 27.23, 26.82, 26.49, 26.04, 25.93 and 25.71. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 18-month lows on 4/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLV fell below 2-month lows on 4/27/10 and remains neutral relative to 50- and 200-day averages. Support 30.49, 30.27, and 29.55. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 3-year lows on 4/15/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above 3-month highs on 5/3/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.95, 29.30, 28.45, and 28.10. Resistance 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been underperforming since 10/14/09. EEM/SPY trend turned bearish on 4/16/10, according to strict moving average analysis. Absolute price of EEM fell below 2-week lows on 4/16/10.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 14-month lows on 4/28/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks on 4/27/10 and turned neutral relative to 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 4/27/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of the NASDAQ closed above 22-month highs on 4/23/10 and remains bullish.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 5-month low on 4/14/10. IWF/IWD remains below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. In contrast, absolute price of IWF rose above 18-month highs on 4/23/10 and remains bullish. When relative strength and absolute price trends are in conflict, it may be best to stand aside.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 5/3/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of IWD rose above 18-month highs on 4/23/10 and remains bullish.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above previous 6-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP rose above 19-month highs on 4/23/10 and remains bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 21 months on 4/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of OEX remains bullish relative to its moving averages.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 17-month highs on 4/29/10. Absolute price of IWM rose above 17-month highs on 4/26/10. Both remain in bullish position relative to key moving averages.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY rose above 21-month highs on 4/23/10 and remains bullish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose to test 18 month highs above 87 on 5/3/10 but surrendered gains by the close. Short term, Oil may still be stuck in the same consolidation phase it entered on 4/6/10. Longer term, Oil remains bullish. Support 81.29, 78.86, 77.05, 76.71, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price rose above the highs of the previous 6 months on 5/3/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend for the intermediate-term. Longer term, Gold remains bullish. Support 1160, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1196.8 and 1226.4.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 3-month highs on 4/29/10, thereby confirming an uptrend trend for the intermediate term. Absolute price also rose above 3-month highs on 4/30/10 and remains bullish.

Silver/Gold Ratio firmed up since 2/8/10 and remains neutral.

Copper nearest futures price fell below the lows of the previous 2 months on 5/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish signal for the short-term trend. Copper entered a correction phase since peaking at 3.68 on 4/12/10. Longer term, Copper remains bullish. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.29, 3.1505, 3.034, and 2.811. Resistance 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price jumped up to a 5-week high on 4/30/10, in an obvious flight to safety. Support 115.15, 114.06. 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 119.18, 120.11 and 123.18.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 3-month highs on 4/15/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of JNK rose above 3-month highs on 4/21/10 and remains bullish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose to a 3-month high on 4/29/10 and remains bullish. This means investors prefer more inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP rose above 4-month highs on 4/30/10 and remains bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved above 11-month high on 4/28/10, thereby showing renewed strength after consolidating gains since peaking at 82.52 on 3/25/10. Longer term, USD remains bullish. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 82.52, 83.145 and 83.335.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 54.0% Bulls versus 18.0% Bears as of 4/28/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 3.00, down from 3.06 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is near its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index fell to a 33-month low of 15.23 on 4/12/10. A low and falling VIX suggests bullish complacency. VIX is down from a closing high of 80.86 set on 11/20/08. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index fell to a 31-month low of 15.53 on 4/14/10. A low and falling VXN suggests bullish complacency. VXN is down from a closing high of 80.64 set on 11/20/08. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio rose to 1.85 on 4/15/10, a high level that indicates extreme bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a sign to be alert. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.32 on 4/14/10, a low level that indicates extreme bullish sentiment, which might be taken as a sign to be alert. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price rose above 18-month highs on 4/23/10, again confirming its bullish trend. Support 1175.12, and 1152.83, 1132.15, and 1111.46. Resistance 1220.03 and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1175.12, low of 4/9/2010
1152.83, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1150.45, high of 1/19/2010
1132.15, Gann 50.0% of 2010 range
1111.46, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1086.02, low of 2/25/2010
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1089.29, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-2010 range
1081.54, Gann 25.0% of 2009-2010 range
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

3.46% REIT Wilshire, RWR
3.44% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
3.33% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
3.10% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
3.04% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
2.61% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.38% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
2.36% Indonesia MV, IDX
2.25% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
2.24% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
2.19% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
2.17% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
2.15% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.15% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.10% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
2.08% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
2.06% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
2.03% Microcap Russell, IWC
2.01% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
2.00% Networking, IGN
2.00% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.99% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.98% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.92% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.90% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.85% Sweden Index, EWD
1.83% Water Resources, PHO
1.76% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.75% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.71% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.71% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.67% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.67% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.64% India PS, PIN
1.64% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.62% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.55% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.52% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.46% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.45% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.44% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.42% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.41% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.41% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
1.41% South Africa Index, EZA
1.39% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.38% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.37% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.37% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.37% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.37% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.36% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.35% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.31% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.30% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.29% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.28% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.28% Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.28% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.27% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.26% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.26% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.24% Australia Index, EWA
1.24% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.22% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.22% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.22% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.17% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.16% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.14% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.13% Italy Index, EWI
1.09% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.05% Belgium Index, EWK
1.05% France Index, EWQ
1.04% Mexico Index, EWW
1.01% Energy DJ, IYE
1.00% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.98% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.97% Russia MV, RSX
0.96% Austria Index, EWO
0.94% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.91% China 25 iS, FXI
0.89% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.88% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.85% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.82% Global 100, IOO
0.81% Canada Index, EWC
0.81% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.79% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.73% European VIPERs, VGK
0.72% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.72% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.72% EAFE Index, EFA
0.71% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.69% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.67% Singapore Index, EWS
0.67% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.64% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.62% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.59% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.59% Energy Global, IXC
0.58% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.56% Dividend International, PID
0.55% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.51% Germany Index, EWG
0.49% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.49% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.44% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.42% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.37% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.32% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.31% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.29% Japan Index, EWJ
0.28% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.18% Spain Index, EWP
0.08% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.00% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.06% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.09% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.12% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.19% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.19% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.21% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.21% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.31% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.31% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.31% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.33% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.38% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.39% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.48% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.49% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.56% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.63% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.65% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.73% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.78% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX