Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) rose above the highs of the previous 5 months and rose above its 200-day SMA, thereby confirming its preexisting medium-term uptrend.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 12 weeks, reconfirming a downside correction.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stock sector price rose above previous highs.
Technology (XLK) stock sector price rose above the highs of the previous 4 years.
Energy (XLE) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA.
Consumer Staples (XLP) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 months.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,349.96, up 0.22%) is near its highs of 2011. It appears probable that it will encounter resistance near those highs, plus or minus a few percentage points. The stock market looks like it is losing bullish momentum and, therefore, could be vulnerable to a downside correction.
Potential Reward relative to potential Risk does not appear attractive.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Investors Intelligence Sentiment: There were 71.3% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 28.7% Bears, according to the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of stock market newsletter advisors reported on 2/8/11. This represents a moderately above average level of bullish sentiment: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.5% and the mean is 69.0%.
AAII Sentiment: There were 44% Bulls and 25% Bears, according to the AAII weekly survey reported on 2/2/11. That was a moderate decline in mood from the 1/5/12 reading, 49% Bulls and 17% Bears, which was 1.3 standard deviations more optimistic than the 20-year average.
VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 6 months on 2/3/12, hitting 16.10 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1349.31, Gann 87.5% projection 10/11 range
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.66, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/1/12, turning technically neutral again. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend for the longer term. Support 115.55, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 120.91, 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) fell back below its 50-day SMA on 2/7/12, turning technically neutral again. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend. Support 104.00, 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.49 and 106.66.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 2/7/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above its 200-day SMA on 2/7/12 and rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/19/12 but remains neutral because the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 12 weeks on 2/8/12, reconfirming a downside correction. UUP fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/23/11 but remains above its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.18, 22.41, 22.46, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) remains neutral, above its 50-day SMA but below its 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 2/2/12. USO is neutral, below its 50-day SMA but above its 200-day SMA. Support 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.96, 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rebounded on 2/7/12 after falling below the lows of the previous 7 trading days on 2/6/12. GLD rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/12, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term uptrend. GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/23/12 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 1/10/12. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 166.61, 160.29, 159.68, 158.01, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 171.23, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 1/24/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. GDX/GLD remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/12, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term uptrend. SLV rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12. SLV remains below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 32.02, 30.67, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 33.45, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/8/12, confirming a short-term uptrend. SLV/GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV/GLD fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) rose above the highs of the previous 5 months and rose above its 200-day SMA on 2/8/12, thereby confirming its preexisting medium-term uptrend. Longer term, JJC’s 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
18.54% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
1.87% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
8.78% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
9.18% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
7.64% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
6.60% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
2.44% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.81% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
0.46% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
6.08% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
3.68% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
3.62% , NVDA , NVIDIA
0.28% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
0.15% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
3.55% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
1.82% , UTX , UNITED TECH
3.57% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
2.30% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
2.04% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
3.28% , CIEN.O , CIENA
1.63% , NKE , NIKE STK B
3.30% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
3.51% , C , CITIGROUP
2.39% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
1.91% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
1.86% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
2.99% , VFC , VF
1.60% , AGN , ALLERGAN
3.35% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
1.07% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
2.15% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
4.11% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
2.85% , GCI , GANNETT
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.20% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-0.59% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.66% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-1.35% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-2.13% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-1.75% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-1.47% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-2.59% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-2.03% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-1.63% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-0.86% , AN , AUTONATION
-1.22% , RAI , Reynolds American
-1.60% , AMGN , AMGEN
-0.64% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.68% , EFX , EQUIFAX
-0.76% , DHR , DANAHER
-1.32% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-0.66% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-1.61% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-1.25% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-0.17% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.71% , CLX , CLOROX
-1.72% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-0.05% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-0.15% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-2.46% , X , US STEEL CORP
-2.19% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-1.60% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-1.85% , GPS , GAP
-0.76% , ORCL , ORACLE
-2.03% , DLX , DELUXE
-1.22% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-0.50% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.44% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.94% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.89% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.71% China 25 iS, FXI
1.67% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.56% Italy Index, EWI
1.52% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.26% Singapore Index, EWS
1.24% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.20% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.14% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.11% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.07% Austria Index, EWO
1.05% Spain Index, EWP
0.87% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.84% South Korea Index, EWY
0.81% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.79% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.77% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.75% India PS, PIN
0.75% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.74% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.72% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.71% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.71% Sweden Index, EWD
0.69% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.62% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.61% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.59% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.58% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.58% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.55% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.53% Germany Index, EWG
0.53% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.50% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.48% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.46% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.46% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.43% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.42% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.41% France Index, EWQ
0.41% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.41% Japan Index, EWJ
0.41% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.40% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.38% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.37% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.35% EAFE Index, EFA
0.35% European VIPERs, VGK
0.34% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.33% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.32% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.32% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.32% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.30% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.30% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.29% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.29% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.29% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.27% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.27% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.26% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.25% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.25% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.24% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.24% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.22% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.22% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.22% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.22% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.22% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.21% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.21% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.21% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.20% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.20% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.19% Global 100, IOO
0.19% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.18% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.17% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.17% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.17% Belgium Index, EWK
0.17% Australia Index, EWA
0.17% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.16% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.16% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.16% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.16% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.14% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.13% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.13% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.12% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.11% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.11% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.10% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.10% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.10% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.10% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.09% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.08% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.08% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.08% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.07% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.07% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.06% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.06% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.06% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.06% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.05% Water Resources, PHO
0.05% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.04% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.04% Canada Index, EWC
0.03% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.03% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.01% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.00% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.00% Dividend International, PID
0.00% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.03% Networking, IGN
-0.07% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.08% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.17% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.17% Energy Global, IXC
-0.21% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.22% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.25% Russia MV, RSX
-0.25% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.30% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.32% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.33% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.34% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.43% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.46% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.47% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.59% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.66% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.71% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.65% Biotech SPDR, XBI
