The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,277.06) rose 1.55% on Tuesday.
All the gain came on an opening gap, and the SPX spent the day choppy, going nowhere.
This overnight price markup left stocks overbought and on resistance.
SPX opened back above its widely-followed 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11, suggesting a persistent Bear trend for the longer term.
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Hedge Funds End 2011 on a Very Bad Note
2011 was the second-worst year on record for hedge funds, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge-funds suffered double-digit losses.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. On 1/3/12, both Averages reconfirmed a Secondary Reaction upside bounce by closing above their closing price highs of the previous 5 months. This appears to be one of those junctures when interpretation of the Dow Theory could be open to debate. Significantly, in my opinion, the higher highs on 1/3/12 were NOT confirmed by the broad-based, capitalization-weighted price indexes. I want to see broader upside confirmation before changing my bearish interpretation of the major trend.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below 3-week lows on 1/3/12. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 11/9/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.31, 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.60, 22.70, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) bounced over the past 2 weeks and now appears overbought. Price fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/16/11, again confirming a major bearish downtrend.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) bounced to the upper end of its 7-week trading range, reaching a peak of 39.75, where it might find resistance. Support 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.75, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 12/29/11, confirming a bearish trend. On 12/12/11, I warned that a break below the low at 165.53 set on 12/6/11 would be bearish. GLD remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 157.53, 162.07, 165.53, 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 3-year lows on 12/19/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below the lows of the previous 11 months on 12/29/11. SLV remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. SLV crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/8/11 and crossed below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 28.99, 32.53, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, confirming a bearish trend. SLV/GLD remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.52% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
5.51% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.38% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
4.25% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
6.63% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
1.55% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
3.81% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
4.03% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
9.56% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
2.26% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
8.11% , MBI , MBIA
7.39% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
1.07% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
2.28% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
6.79% , TEVA , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited
2.47% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
7.41% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
9.69% , NBR , NABORS
2.19% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
3.37% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
6.69% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
6.71% , AA , ALCOA
3.57% , CMA , COMERICA
7.68% , C , CITIGROUP
3.82% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
6.97% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
4.42% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
3.29% , GCI , GANNETT
3.31% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
4.65% , CSX , CSX
2.36% , AES , AES
1.08% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
1.41% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-18.78% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-3.68% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-3.00% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-3.50% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
-2.97% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
-3.17% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
-2.89% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-3.30% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-3.36% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-3.23% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
-1.78% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-3.17% , AN , AUTONATION
-0.92% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-2.72% , SO , SOUTHERN
-2.38% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-1.07% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-3.75% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-1.80% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-2.67% , KSS , KOHLS
-2.65% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-1.08% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
-3.79% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-2.04% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-1.95% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.64% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-0.16% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-3.64% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-2.22% , ED , CON ED
-3.31% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-1.49% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-1.31% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-1.18% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-2.04% , PPL , PPL
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
7.02% Silver Trust iS, SLV
5.51% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
4.81% India Earnings WTree, EPI
4.66% India PS, PIN
4.42% Germany Index, EWG
4.25% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
4.25% Italy Index, EWI
4.15% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
4.03% Brazil Index, EWZ
3.86% Sweden Index, EWD
3.85% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
3.85% South Korea Index, EWY
3.84% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
3.82% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
3.64% Russia MV, RSX
3.42% Singapore Index, EWS
3.41% EMU Europe Index, EZU
3.36% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
3.35% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
3.33% European VIPERs, VGK
3.26% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
3.21% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
3.21% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
3.20% Financial Services DJ, IYG
3.19% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
3.18% China 25 iS, FXI
3.14% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
3.06% Emerging Markets, EEM
3.01% Canada Index, EWC
2.99% Australia Index, EWA
2.98% Commodity Tracking, DBC
2.97% United Kingdom Index, EWU
2.97% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.96% France Index, EWQ
2.93% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.88% Mexico Index, EWW
2.82% Latin Am 40, ILF
2.78% Energy SPDR, XLE
2.78% Materials SPDR, XLB
2.76% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.74% EAFE Index, EFA
2.71% Energy VIPERs, VDE
2.67% Austria Index, EWO
2.67% South Africa Index, EZA
2.62% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
2.62% Financial SPDR, XLF
2.59% Energy DJ, IYE
2.59% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
2.55% Belgium Index, EWK
2.49% Energy Global, IXC
2.45% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
2.38% Global 100, IOO
2.30% Switzerland Index, EWL
2.28% Financial DJ US, IYF
2.28% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.26% Netherlands Index, EWN
2.26% Hong Kong Index, EWH
2.25% Financials VIPERs, VFH
2.21% Indonesia MV, IDX
2.19% Industrial SPDR, XLI
2.19% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
2.18% Spain Index, EWP
2.02% Water Resources, PHO
1.99% Dividend International, PID
1.98% Japan Index, EWJ
1.97% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.92% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.90% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.89% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.81% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.79% Networking, IGN
1.71% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.68% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.66% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.65% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.64% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.61% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.59% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.58% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.55% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.54% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.54% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.53% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.51% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.48% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.46% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.46% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.45% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.43% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.42% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.42% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.41% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.40% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.38% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.33% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.30% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.28% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.27% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.26% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.25% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.25% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.21% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.16% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.14% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.12% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.12% Financial Preferred, PGF
1.12% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.11% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.11% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.07% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.04% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.00% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.97% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.90% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.89% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.86% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.85% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.84% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.83% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.83% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.69% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.65% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.62% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.55% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.32% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.32% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.20% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.10% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.08% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.09% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.20% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.20% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.63% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.92% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.50% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.56% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.61% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.78% Utilities SPDR, XLU
