CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 21 months intraday, for another a bearish trend confirmation.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months, reconfirming its major downtrend.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years, reconfirming its bearish trend.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,335.02) rose 9.51 points or 0.72% on Friday, thereby retracing nearly 1/3 of the 39.08 points lost from the intraday high of 1,363.49 on 6/19/12. That would be normal for a counter-trend minor reaction.
SPX broke down from a Bearish Rising Wedge Chart Pattern on Thursday. That implies potential short-term risk to the 6/4/12 low at 1,266.74.
In terms of price, over 15 calendar days in June, the S&P 500 price index recovered 96.72 points intraday, which is slightly more than a 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of its 155.64 points lost from the April high to the June low.
In terms of time, the June bounce consumed 15 calendar days, which is slightly more than a 23.6% Fibonacci ratio of the 63 calendar days of the April to June decline.
With upside bounces smaller and briefer than declines, price and time confirm the dominance of selling pressure over buying pressure. The path of least resistance appears to be down.
For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price quickly recovered more than half of its recent losses on 6/21/12. UUP remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.02, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 21 months intraday on 6/22/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/21/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. DBA is now below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has been consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 8 months on 6/21/12. USO turned systematically bearish on 6/7/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. USO remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Support 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 31.81, 32.80, 34.76, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/20/12, turning systematically bearish again. GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/1/12, turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/22/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/8/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. JJC turned systematically bearish on 5/31/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.35% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
5.86% , SVU , SUPERVALU
0.88% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.81% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
3.23% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
2.32% , ECL , ECOLAB
1.43% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
2.60% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
1.36% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
2.08% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.76% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
2.63% , VFC , VF
1.64% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
0.91% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
0.76% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.46% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
2.28% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
2.68% , PWER , POWER ONE
1.34% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
0.43% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
1.87% , DLX , DELUXE
1.77% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
0.54% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
0.95% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
1.31% , CIEN.O , CIENA
2.23% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
0.43% , QLGC , QLOGIC
1.96% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
0.80% , WPO , Washington Post
1.23% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.67% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.94% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
3.46% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-13.03% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
-8.94% , DYN , DYNEGY
-3.53% , ITT , ITT INDS
-0.65% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-1.56% , DOV , DOVER
-2.66% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-2.13% , CSX , CSX
-1.00% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-1.39% , FLR , FLUOR
-2.09% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-1.66% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-1.80% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-1.05% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.53% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-1.45% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-2.09% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-1.19% , CMI , CUMMINS
-0.65% , KR , KROGER
-0.37% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
-1.85% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-1.09% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-1.97% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-0.67% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-1.60% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-2.46% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-0.69% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-0.83% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-1.32% , UIS , UNISYS
-0.74% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-0.53% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-0.49% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-0.78% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-1.18% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.31% Spain Index, EWP
2.19% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2.08% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.00% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.00% Mexico Index, EWW
1.62% Russia MV, RSX
1.62% Italy Index, EWI
1.54% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.49% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.49% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.47% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.44% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.39% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.30% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.28% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.26% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.24% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.23% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.22% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.21% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.16% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.14% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.14% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.12% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.11% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.11% Singapore Index, EWS
1.09% Networking, IGN
1.07% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.06% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.05% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.05% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.04% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.03% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.02% European VIPERs, VGK
1.01% Sweden Index, EWD
1.00% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.99% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.99% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.98% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.97% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.95% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.95% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.94% Dividend International, PID
0.93% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.93% Belgium Index, EWK
0.92% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.91% France Index, EWQ
0.89% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.88% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.87% India PS, PIN
0.86% EAFE Index, EFA
0.86% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.84% Global 100, IOO
0.83% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.81% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.80% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.80% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.79% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.77% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.76% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.76% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.76% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.76% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.75% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.75% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.74% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.74% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.73% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.73% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.72% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.72% Canada Index, EWC
0.71% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.71% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.70% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.69% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.69% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.68% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.68% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.67% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.67% Australia Index, EWA
0.67% Japan Index, EWJ
0.67% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.66% Energy DJ, IYE
0.64% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.63% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.62% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.62% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.60% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.57% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.53% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.49% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.49% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.49% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.48% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.45% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.45% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.45% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.43% Energy Global, IXC
0.41% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.40% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.40% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.36% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.35% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.34% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.34% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.32% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.31% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.31% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.26% Germany Index, EWG
0.23% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.23% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.22% Austria Index, EWO
0.17% Water Resources, PHO
0.17% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.14% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.11% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.10% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.09% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.07% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.03% China 25 iS, FXI
0.03% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.02% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.03% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.05% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.08% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.08% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.11% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.14% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.22% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.30% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.44% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.48% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.64% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.76% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.79% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.79% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.86% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.33% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
