Corporate insiders are now selling their companies’ stock at the heaviest rate since the market peak last July, according to Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch. Insiders sold 577 shares for each 100 shares they bought, according to Argus Research Vickers Weekly Insider Report. That is a big change in insider behavior from 81 shares sold for each 100 shares bought in November. Since corporate insiders (officers, directors, and largest shareholders) know so much more about their companies than the public can possibly know, it is bearish when insiders sell at such a heavy pace.

AAII Sentiment: There were 52% Bulls and 20% Bears, according to the AAII weekly survey reported on 2/9/12. That was an upswing in net bullish emotion from 44% Bulls and 25% Bears as of the 2/2/12 reading.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) turned down this week after peaking on 2/3/12.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,351.95, up 0.15%) rose again but lost a little bit more price velocity. Expect resistance near the 2011 highs, plus or minus a few percentage points. The slowness of the grind higher indicates that the stock market already has lost most of its bullish momentum and could be vulnerable to a downside correction at any time. Potential Reward relative to potential Risk does not appear attractive.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1349.31, Gann 87.5% projection 10/11 range
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.69, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 2/9/12 but managed to recover most of the day’s loss by the close. TLT whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/1/12, turning technically neutral again. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend for the longer term. Support 114.62, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 120.91, 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) fell back below its 50-day SMA on 2/7/12, turning technically neutral again. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend. Support 104.38, 104.00, 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.49 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 2/7/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) remains neutral. TIP whipsawed back below its 200-day SMA on 2/9/12 but remains above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 12 weeks on 2/9/12, reconfirming a downside correction. UUP fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/23/11 but remains above its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.18, 22.41, 22.46, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) remains neutral, above its 50-day SMA but below its 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) entered a correction after peaking at 39.96 on 1/4/12. Support 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.96, 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has stalled out this week after peaking 171.23 on 2/2/12. GLD rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/2/12, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term uptrend. GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/23/12 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 1/10/12. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 166.61, 160.29, 159.68, 158.01, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 171.23, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 1/24/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. GDX/GLD remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 12 weeks on 2/9/12 intraday but closed lower, disappointing the bulls. SLV rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12. SLV remains below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 32.37, 32.02, 30.67, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 33.47, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 2/8/12, confirming a short-term uptrend. SLV/GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV/GLD fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) rose above the highs of the previous 5 months and rose above its 200-day SMA on 2/8/12, thereby confirming its preexisting medium-term uptrend. Longer term, JJC’s 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.71% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
10.17% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
9.71% , KBH , KB HOME
7.98% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
7.64% , EFX , EQUIFAX
0.75% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
4.97% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
3.75% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
3.38% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
5.25% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
4.16% , PWER , POWER ONE
2.60% , BMS , BEMIS
3.46% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
3.33% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
2.80% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
1.30% , PMR , Retail, PMR
1.48% , MAS , MASCO
2.84% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
0.22% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
3.28% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
4.86% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
2.78% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
2.20% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
1.42% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.52% , SEE , SEALED AIR
3.26% , WAG , WALGREEN
3.29% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
2.21% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
1.49% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
1.90% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
0.76% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.60% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
0.73% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.70% , PEP , PEPSICO
-1.33% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-4.78% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-0.72% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.37% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.31% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-1.18% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.42% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
-1.44% , SYK , STRYKER
-1.59% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-2.22% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
-1.45% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-2.10% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-1.06% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
-0.22% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.84% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-0.23% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.52% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-1.38% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
-1.70% , STT , STATE STREET
-0.24% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-1.36% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
-2.09% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
-1.17% , F , FORD MOTOR
-1.09% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
-1.21% , SPLS , STAPLES
-1.52% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-0.85% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.50% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-0.19% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-0.51% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.75% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.23% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.38% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.97% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.92% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.91% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.90% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.86% Mexico Index, EWW
0.76% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.76% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.75% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.72% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.58% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.58% Spain Index, EWP
0.55% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.53% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.51% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.49% Germany Index, EWG
0.46% France Index, EWQ
0.46% Sweden Index, EWD
0.44% Energy Global, IXC
0.42% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.41% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.38% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.35% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.35% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.34% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.33% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.33% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.32% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.31% Water Resources, PHO
0.30% India PS, PIN
0.29% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.28% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.28% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.27% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.27% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.26% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.26% South Africa Index, EZA
0.26% EAFE Index, EFA
0.26% Belgium Index, EWK
0.23% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.23% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.21% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.21% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.20% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.20% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.20% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.19% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.18% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.17% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.16% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.16% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.15% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.15% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.15% Italy Index, EWI
0.14% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.14% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.13% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.13% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.12% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.12% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.11% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.11% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.10% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.08% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.08% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.07% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.07% European VIPERs, VGK
0.07% Dividend International, PID
0.06% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.05% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.04% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.04% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.04% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.03% South Korea Index, EWY
0.03% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.02% Global 100, IOO
0.01% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.00% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.01% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.02% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.02% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.02% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.03% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.05% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.05% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.05% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.06% Austria Index, EWO
-0.07% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.07% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.08% Australia Index, EWA
-0.11% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.11% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.12% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.16% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.16% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.18% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.19% Networking, IGN
-0.21% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.21% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.22% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.23% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.23% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.24% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.25% Canada Index, EWC
-0.28% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.29% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.31% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.32% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.32% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.33% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.35% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.35% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.37% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.38% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.39% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.40% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.41% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.41% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.42% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.49% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.49% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.50% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.51% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.52% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.53% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.61% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.65% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.73% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.73% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.75% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.77% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.79% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.84% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.85% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.18% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.22% Russia MV, RSX