Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell below 4-day lows on 9/16/10, which could lead to a short-term price pullback. Intermediate term, Oil has been consolidating more or less sideways/neutral in a trading range since 5/3/10.
Gold nearest futures contract rose to a new all-time high on 9/16/10, again confirming its preexisting secular bullish trend.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 8-month highs on 9/16/10, confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold since 8/20/10.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,124.66) eased lower by 0.41 points or 0.04% on 9/16/10, weighed down by weakness in energy, health care, utility, and financial sectors. Stock prices did manage to demonstrate some resilience again: stocks overcame most of their earlier moderate weakness in the final 2 hours. But volume on rallies has been relatively low for months, suggesting a lack of confidence. Absolute price of SPX remains only neutral, above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. For more than 3 months, the stock market has been consolidating losses in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/10. Even if there were an attempt to probe new 3-month high territory, which would not be a surprise given the proximity, substantial upside price follow-through with volume confirmation would be needed to validate a trend change to the upside for the intermediate term. Barring that, further consolidation still seems most likely in days ahead.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.57% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
4.80% , F , FORD MOTOR
3.69% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
3.08% , XRX , XEROX
2.45% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
3.44% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
0.81% , IGW , Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
2.13% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
4.44% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.75% , TXT , TEXTRON
2.06% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
0.86% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.81% , KR , KROGER
0.63% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
2.35% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
1.62% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
0.50% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
1.16% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
2.00% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
1.17% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
0.43% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
1.25% , TIF , TIFFANY
1.18% , ALL , ALLSTATE
1.28% , C , CITIGROUP
1.17% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.45% , SVU , SUPERVALU
0.65% , LM , LEGG MASON
0.48% , XLB , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.49% , HES , AMERADA HESS
2.14% , A , AGILENT TECH
1.11% , ALTR , ALTERA
0.65% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
2.57% , TER , TERADYNE
0.89% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.84% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
0.62% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
1.92% , IR , INGER RAND
0.46% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
0.65% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
0.72% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.75% , FDX , FEDEX
-4.69% , DYN , DYNEGY
-3.85% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-3.46% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-3.36% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-2.97% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-0.60% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-3.92% , KBH , KB HOME
-0.35% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.25% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-2.22% , AGN , ALLERGAN
-2.52% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-1.10% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.76% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-0.90% , PWY , Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
-4.49% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-1.70% , TEVA , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited
-2.16% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-1.75% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-3.53% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-1.69% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-1.03% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-0.56% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-1.53% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-2.87% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-2.92% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-0.64% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-0.55% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.99% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.89% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-0.19% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-0.59% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
-1.98% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
-0.91% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.56% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-1.11% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.53% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
-2.51% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
-1.40% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-1.92% , KG , KING PHARM
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 2-month high on 9/3/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 2-month high on 9/14/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 32.41, 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 8-month high on 9/13/10 and has turned bullish, with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 4-month high on 9/13/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 35.47 and 37.56.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 9/8/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose to a new 4-week high on 9/13/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.77, 27.67, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 31.15, 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell to a 4-week low on 9/13/10 and turned neutral by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 3-month high on 9/15/10 but still remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.46, 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above both 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 9/16/10. Still, the ratio is neutral, with the 50 below the 200. Absolute price of XLK remains neutral, above both 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell to a 4-week low on 9/16/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLU rose to a new 8-month high on 9/7/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.29, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.74 and 32.08.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 29.98, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/30/10 and remains more bearish than bullish—despite an oversold bounce off the low of 8/25/10. Absolute price of XLF turned mostly bearish after peaking at 17.12 on 4/15/10. The price 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been bearish most of the time since peaking on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE has been bearish most of the time since peaking at 62.30 on 4/26/10. Support 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 7-year high on 9/14/10, again confirming a secular (major) bullish trend. Absolute price rose to a new 4-month high. Price of EEM turned bullish on 9/9/10 when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 5-week highs on 9/14/10 and above both the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA. The ratio remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose further above 5-week highs on 9/3/10 and remains bullish. Longer term, RSP/SPY has been bullish (trending upward) since 11/19/08. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be trending lower again in recent weeks, since 8/3/10. Big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) is neutral. The ratio has been correcting and consolidating since making a 13-year high on 5/17/10.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 7-week highs on 9/15/10 and remains bullish. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA moderately below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell below 4-day lows on 9/16/10, which could lead to a short-term price pullback. Intermediate term, Oil has been consolidating more or less sideways/neutral in a trading range since 5/3/10. Support 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 83.40, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract rose to a new all-time high on 9/16/10, again confirming its preexisting secular bullish trend. Support 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1120.9, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9, and 989.3. Resistance: maybe around 1300.0.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 8-month highs on 9/16/10, confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price has held up well, consolidating gains since its high on 9/3/10. Copper rose above 4-month highs on 9/3/10, again confirming an intermediate-term Secondary Uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.68, 3.795, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below 4-week lows on 9/13/10 before reversing to close higher. Bonds might be oversold for the short term. The Bond rose to its highest level in 19-months on 8/25/10, again confirming that the major trend remained bullish. Support 129.05, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 133.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has recovered slightly since falling below 3-month lows on 8/26/10. The Ratio has been heading lower (underperforming) most of the time since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and JNK outperforming.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been RELATIVELY bearish most of the time since peaking on 1/8/10. This implies that investors have been choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price broke down further below 4-week lows on 9/14/10, again confirming bearish trend for the short term. The Secondary, intermediate-term trend appears probably bearish. Long term, USD may be in a secular downtrend and merely consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008. Support 80.745, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90, 74.27, and 70.805. Resistance 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 36.7% Bulls versus 31.1% Bears as of 9/15/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.18, up from .078 on 9/1/10, which was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,124.66) eased lower by 0.41 points or 0.04% on 9/16/10, weighed down by moderate weakness in energy, health care, utility, and financial sectors. Stock prices demonstrated some resilience again: stocks overcame most of their earlier moderate weakness in the final 2 hours. Volume on rallies has been relatively low for months, suggesting a lack of confidence. Absolute price of SPX remains neutral, above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. For more than 3 months, the stock market has been consolidating losses in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/10. Even if there were an attempt to probe new 3-month high territory, which would not be a surprise given the proximity, substantial upside price follow-through with volume confirmation would be needed to validate a trend change. Barring that, further consolidation still seems most likely in days ahead.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
1127.36, high of 9/14/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.17% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.91% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.89% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.88% Networking, IGN
0.86% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.81% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.68% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.65% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.62% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.58% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.56% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.50% Spain Index, EWP
0.50% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.48% Austria Index, EWO
0.48% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.40% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.40% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.40% Sweden Index, EWD
0.40% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.38% Germany Index, EWG
0.33% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.31% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.25% Canada Index, EWC
0.24% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.18% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.17% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.17% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.16% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.16% Singapore Index, EWS
0.14% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.12% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.12% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.12% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.11% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.10% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.09% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.09% France Index, EWQ
0.05% Global 100, IOO
0.04% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.03% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.00% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.02% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.03% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.03% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.03% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.04% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.05% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.06% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.06% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.07% Dividend International, PID
-0.10% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.11% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.12% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.13% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.15% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.15% Energy Global, IXC
-0.16% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.17% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.17% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.18% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.18% Italy Index, EWI
-0.20% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.21% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.22% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.22% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.23% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.23% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.24% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.25% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.25% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.26% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.30% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.30% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.31% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.31% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.32% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.32% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.34% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.35% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.35% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.35% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.37% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.38% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.40% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.40% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.40% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.42% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.44% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.44% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.45% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.46% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.46% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.46% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.46% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.48% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.51% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.51% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.51% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.52% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.52% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.53% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.54% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.56% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.57% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.59% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.61% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.63% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.64% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.69% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.69% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.70% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.72% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.73% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.74% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.79% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.80% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.81% Water Resources, PHO
-0.82% India PS, PIN
-0.85% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.89% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.90% Australia Index, EWA
-0.91% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.95% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.99% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.02% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.08% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.10% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.11% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.18% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.31% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.40% Russia MV, RSX
-1.44% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.49% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.52% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO

