Stock Price Indexes Appear To Be Resilient — ON THE SURFACE

U.S. stock market price indexes opened lower but soon recovered to close mostly higher. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,709.67) rose 0.16%.

Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), turned up slightly on Thursday, 8/1/2013. Both turned downward on Wednesday 7/24/13, and both remain bearishly divergent.

NYSE total volume fell 19% to a level 8% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE both rose moderately but have not made new highs. So, both remain bearishly divergent relative to their May highs and the price indexes. The Net Number of New Highs-Lows remains far below its May high, thereby diverging bearishly as well.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral. QQQ/SPY has improved somewhat since making a low on 4/18/13. Longer term, QQQ/SPY has still underperformed since it peaked on 4/10/12.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007. Absolute price peaked at 64.14 on 5/22/13 and fell to a 6-month low on 6/24/13, confirming a significant downtrend.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Longer term, IWM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 4/5/11. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Longer term, MDY/SPY has underperformed slightly since the ratio peaked on 4/5/11. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/1/13. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Support 36.22, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 7/30/13 when price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been trending down since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 130.14, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.89, 20.53, 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 7/30/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.53% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
8.90% , SEE , SEALED AIR
6.47% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
5.60% , DELL , DELL
4.34% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
2.94% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
2.40% , CSX , CSX
2.52% , DD , DU PONT
3.82% , PKI , PERKINELMER
4.26% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
2.68% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
1.93% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
3.53% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
0.85% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
2.55% , RTN , RAYTHEON
2.36% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
2.27% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
3.43% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
1.48% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
2.32% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
0.76% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
1.95% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
0.77% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.37% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
0.67% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
1.31% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
1.99% , WPO , Washington Post
0.28% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
0.53% , IGN , Networking, IGN
1.29% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
0.35% , IWF , Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.52% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
0.18% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.53% , ETN , EATON
-11.07% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-2.44% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-2.56% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-0.99% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
-1.19% , KR , KROGER
-2.23% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-0.86% , KO , COCA COLA
-0.55% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-3.46% , CHD , Church & Dwight
-1.69% , UIS , UNISYS
-0.49% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.05% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-2.70% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-1.36% , XLNX , XILINX
-0.35% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-1.18% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
-1.04% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-0.43% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
-0.41% , ACE , ACE
-0.78% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-0.07% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.87% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-0.58% , FNP , Fifth & Pacific Cos., FNP
-1.06% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-0.44% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.53% , CVS , CVS
-0.13% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.58% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-0.39% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-0.25% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-0.63% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-0.55% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.16% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.70% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.56% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.56% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.52% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.25% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
1.12% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.10% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.01% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.93% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.85% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.85% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.82% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.79% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.77% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.73% , Spain Index, EWP
0.71% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.70% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.67% , Austria Index, EWO
0.64% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.61% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.60% , Australia Index, EWA
0.57% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.56% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.56% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.56% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.56% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.56% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.55% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.54% , France Index, EWQ
0.53% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.53% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.53% , Networking, IGN
0.51% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.51% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.49% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.49% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.48% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.44% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.42% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.40% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.35% , Global 100, IOO
0.35% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.35% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.34% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.31% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.30% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.28% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.26% , Germany Index, EWG
0.26% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.25% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.25% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.24% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.20% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.20% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.20% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.20% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.20% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.19% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.19% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.18% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.18% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.18% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.18% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.17% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.17% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.16% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.16% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.16% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.15% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.15% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.12% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.12% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.11% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.09% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.09% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.08% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.08% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.07% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.07% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.06% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.05% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.05% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.05% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.05% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.05% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.04% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.04% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.03% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.03% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.01% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.00% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.00% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.00% , Dividend International, PID
0.00% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.01% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.01% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.02% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.03% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.07% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.08% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.08% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.09% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.12% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.12% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.13% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.13% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.13% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.15% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.16% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.18% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.19% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.20% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.20% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.22% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.22% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.27% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.29% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.35% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.36% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.36% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.36% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.36% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.38% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.43% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.44% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.44% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.49% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.49% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.51% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.52% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.54% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.55% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.56% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.86% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.06% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.51% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.72% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.82% , India PS, PIN
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1647.93, 50-day SMA
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1537.22, 200-day SMA
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009