The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs.
U.S. stock market price indexes opened higher and continued to rise to new-highs at the close, confirmed by most price indexes. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,706.87) rose 1.25%.
Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), turned up slightly on Thursday, 8/1/2013. Both turned downward on Wednesday 7/24/13, and both remain bearishly divergent.
NYSE total volume rose 1% to a level 14% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE both rose but did not make new highs. So, both remain bearishly divergent relative to their May highs and the price indexes. The Net Number of New Highs-Lows remains far below its May high, thereby diverging bearishly as well.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) has been whipsawing up and down around its own 50-day SMA since 4/30/13, going from bearish to neutral and back again. Longer term, however, QQQ/SPY fairly consistently has underperformed since it peaked on 4/10/12.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007. Absolute price peaked at 64.14 on 5/22/13 and fell to a 6-month low on 6/24/13, confirming a significant downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Longer term, IWM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 4/5/11. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Longer term, MDY/SPY has underperformed slightly since the ratio peaked on 4/5/11. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price remains systematically bearish. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the TLT price are oversold and show bullish divergence compared to price itself. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising bond prices. Support 105.00, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 109.69, 110.80, 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price remains systematically bearish. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the IEF price are oversold and show bullish divergence compared to price itself. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising prices. Support 100.86, 100.45, 100.31, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 102.86, 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been systematically bullish since 5/3/13, when the ratio crossed above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price of JNK has been in a rising trend since 6/24/13 but remains below its high of 41.95 set on 5/8/13.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 7/16/13, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and remains systematically bearish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/1/13. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/1/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Support 36.22, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 7/30/13 when price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been trending down since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 130.14, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.89, 20.53, 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 7/30/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.35% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
8.18% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
2.02% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.87% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
5.34% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
9.92% , ITT , ITT INDS
0.88% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
6.85% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
1.39% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
1.58% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
4.58% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
5.65% , WMB , WILLIAMS
1.31% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
4.85% , NKE , NIKE STK B
1.47% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.09% , MDY , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
3.25% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.72% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.71% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
5.30% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
1.53% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.36% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
1.53% , IGV , Software, IGV
1.81% , IWR , MidCap Russell, IWR
3.86% , CVG , CONVERGYS
5.99% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
2.55% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.11% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.00% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
3.88% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
1.76% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
3.09% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
3.37% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.67% , AVP , AVON
-6.81% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-3.37% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-3.16% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-1.29% , CLX , CLOROX
-1.24% , K , KELLOGG
-1.46% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-1.17% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-1.09% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
-2.17% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.79% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-1.43% , MON , MONSANTO
-0.34% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.06% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-1.22% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.72% , CI , CIGNA
-0.38% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.59% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
-1.15% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-0.40% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.13% , HAR , Harman International
-0.49% , HD , HOME DEPOT
-1.05% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.69% , KBH , KB HOME
-0.06% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.14% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-0.16% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.61% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
3.25% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.74% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.72% , Japan Index, EWJ
2.55% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.44% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2.39% , Mexico Index, EWW
2.31% , Italy Index, EWI
2.23% , Austria Index, EWO
2.20% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
2.09% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
2.02% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
2.02% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.99% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.99% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.95% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.91% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.89% , Russia MV, RSX
1.89% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.86% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.84% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.81% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.81% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.77% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.74% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.74% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.71% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.71% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.70% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.67% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.63% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.62% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.59% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.58% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.55% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.55% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.53% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.53% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.53% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.48% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.48% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.47% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.47% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.45% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.44% , Germany Index, EWG
1.43% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.41% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.40% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.39% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
1.37% , Networking, IGN
1.37% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.36% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.36% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.36% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.36% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.35% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.35% , Water Resources, PHO
1.34% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.33% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.32% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.31% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.29% , India PS, PIN
1.28% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.27% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.27% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.25% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.25% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.25% , Spain Index, EWP
1.25% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.22% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.19% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.18% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.18% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.18% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.18% , France Index, EWQ
1.16% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.16% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.16% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.16% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.13% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.09% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.09% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.08% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.07% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.07% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.06% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.03% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.02% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.02% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.01% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.01% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.00% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.98% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.93% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.90% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.90% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.89% , Dividend International, PID
0.87% , Global 100, IOO
0.86% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.84% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.83% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.83% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.83% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.82% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.81% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.77% , Energy Global, IXC
0.74% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.70% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.68% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.67% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.66% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.65% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.63% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.63% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.47% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.25% , Canada Index, EWC
0.23% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.04% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.11% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.34% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.34% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.38% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.39% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.40% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.56% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.65% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.75% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.76% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.89% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.89% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.02% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.06% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.10% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-1.17% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-1.21% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.22% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.35% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.43% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-2.17% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
none
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1646.84, 50-day SMA
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1535.81, 200-day SMA
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
