Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 6-month low on 8/17/10 and remains bearish.
Materials stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 4-month high on 8/17/10 and remains neutral
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 6-week highs on 8/17/10, again confirming a significant upturn.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 3-day lows on 8/17/10, raising doubts about the short-term trend. The larger time frames appear uncertain.
Trading volume has been in a clear downtrend since 5/6/10, and seems unlikely to improve much in August, the traditional month for a summer vacation.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) price rose above 3-day highs on 8/17/10–this just a day after falling below 3-week lows on 8/16/10. With such contradictory trends, the stock market may not be quite ready for a sustainable directional move. SPX appears to be correcting and consolidating gains since the 1219.80 high of 4/26/2010. Further consolidation seems likely during the vacation month of August.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.85% , SWH , Software H, SWH
5.37% , PTV , PACTIV
1.39% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
6.03% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.26% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
1.35% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
1.87% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
5.83% , MTB , M&T BANK
1.26% , IGN , Networking, IGN
0.97% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
0.73% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
7.81% , A , AGILENT TECH
4.16% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
1.62% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.73% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
5.07% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
1.15% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
4.22% , BMS , BEMIS
2.01% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
5.71% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
5.15% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
4.06% , SEE , SEALED AIR
1.32% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
1.66% , ELG , Growth Large Cap, ELG
1.54% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
1.49% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
1.98% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
3.74% , FAST , Fastenal Company
1.49% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
3.98% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
4.02% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
1.17% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
2.05% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
2.52% , HAS , HASBRO
2.18% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
2.52% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
2.22% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.94% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
4.65% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
1.29% , VIG , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.06% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
-2.31% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-2.33% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-5.69% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
-0.89% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.63% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.32% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
-2.41% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.65% , KFT , Kraft Foods Inc.
-0.34% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-1.31% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.52% , C , CITIGROUP
-0.40% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
-0.95% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-0.54% , GENZ , GENZYME
-0.45% , BBY , BEST BUY
-0.90% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-0.38% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
-0.36% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-1.14% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-1.06% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-1.62% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-0.56% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-0.32% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-0.19% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-0.29% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
-0.91% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
-0.10% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
-0.22% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.14% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-0.14% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-3.38% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.02% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.16% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.50% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose to a new 2-month high on 8/5/10, after turning bullish on 7/22/10, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 2-month high on 8/9/10. XLI remains slightly above both SMAs (50 and 200). Support 27.74, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 8-month high on 8/16/10 and remains bullish: above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200. Absolute price of XLU remains neutral but is approaching a SMA bullish crossover (50>200). Support 30.17, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.64 and 32.08.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) is between 50- and 200-day SMAs, so XLY/SPY is to neutral. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY is neutral. Support 29.90, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09. Absolute price of XLP crossed above the 200-day SMA on 7/22/10
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 4-month high on 8/17/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 2-month high on 8/2/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.43 and 27.67. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) turned bullish on 8/11/10 when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price of XLP remains neutral, above both 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to a new 2-month low on 8/13/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK remains bearish, below both SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.38, 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE turned bearish after peaking on 4/26/10. Support 51.31, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 6-month low on 8/17/10 and remains bearish. The ratio turned back to bearish on 8/3/10 as it crossed below both the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price turned bearish again on 8/11/10 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Support 13.34 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to a new 10-month high on 8/16/02, confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM rose to a new 3-month high on 8/2/02. Price remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA, but appears to be heading toward a bullish crossover in days ahead.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) and absolute price both remain neutral, with the 50-day SMAs below the 200-day SMAs.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 6-month lows on 8/13/10, thereby confirming a significant correction to the downside.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 6/15/10. Longer term, RSP /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 11/19/08.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be consolidating losses since its low on 6/15/10. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell to 6-monthlows on 8/13/10, confirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. This trend has been weakening since peaking on 5/17/10. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/8/99.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 5/28/10. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell below 4-week lows on 8/16/10, confirming a downside correction. Oil remains stuck in a correction/consolidation phase that started after the peak on 5/3/10. Support 74.25, 71.09, 70.93, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 6-week highs on 8/17/10, again confirming a significant upturn. Support 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8, 1263.7, and 1266.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio has been mostly neutral, consolidating losses since making a low on 2/8/10. Longer term, Silver has underperformed Gold since 4/19/06.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose above 4-day highs on 8/17/10, thereby showing renewed upside momentum. Copper had consolidated gains since peaking at 3.4105 on 8/4/10. Copper remains in a significant uptrend for the intermediate-term. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price soared to 19-month highs on 8/16/10, again confirming a significant longer-term uptrend. Support 130.29, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has turned bearish for the intermediate term, heading lower since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and Junk outperforming.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 15-month lows on 8/16/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 3-day lows on 8/17/10, raising doubts about the short-term trend. The larger time frames appear uncertain. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 83.64, 85.36, 86.71, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 41.7% Bulls versus 27.5% Bears as of 8/11/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.52, up from 1.17 the previous week. This ratio has been rising since making a low at 0.94 on 7/14/10, which was the lowest since 0.82 on 4/1/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Minor Ripple to the downside within a Bullish Secondary Wave within a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. Both Averages broke down below 3-week lows on 8/13/10. This suggests nothing more than an insignificant short-term Minor Ripple to the downside. On 8/9/10, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 3 months, again confirming a Secondary Wave to the upside. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) price rose above 3-day highs on 8/17/10–this just a day after falling below 3-week lows on 8/16/10. With such contradictory trends, the stock market may not be quite ready for a sustainable directional move. SPX appears to be correcting and consolidating gains since the 1219.80 high of 4/26/2010. Further consolidation seems likely during the vacation month of August.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1071.07, Gann 50.0% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1060.21, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2010 range
1056.87, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.84% Canada Index, EWC
2.80% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.75% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
2.69% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.67% Austria Index, EWO
2.49% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.47% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
2.47% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.35% Materials SPDR, XLB
2.30% REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.29% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
2.22% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.18% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
2.16% Water Resources, PHO
1.98% France Index, EWQ
1.97% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
1.93% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.88% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.87% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.86% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.82% South Korea Index, EWY
1.81% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.79% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.79% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.79% Australia Index, EWA
1.78% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.76% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.74% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.74% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.72% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.72% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.71% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.70% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.69% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.68% Germany Index, EWG
1.68% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.68% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.67% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.66% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.64% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.63% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.63% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.63% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.62% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.61% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.60% Energy DJ, IYE
1.59% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.56% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.48% Russia MV, RSX
1.48% Energy Global, IXC
1.46% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.46% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.43% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.42% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.42% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.41% Italy Index, EWI
1.39% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.39% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.39% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
1.39% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.39% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.38% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.35% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.35% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.34% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.32% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.30% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.29% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.28% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
1.26% Belgium Index, EWK
1.26% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.26% Networking, IGN
1.23% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.22% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.21% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.21% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.20% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.20% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.20% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.17% Global 100, IOO
1.17% European VIPERs, VGK
1.16% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.14% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.13% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.12% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.12% EAFE Index, EFA
1.10% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.10% Sweden Index, EWD
1.08% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.08% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.08% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.07% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.05% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.05% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.03% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.03% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.02% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.99% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.98% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.97% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.96% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.95% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.94% Dividend International, PID
0.94% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.90% Spain Index, EWP
0.85% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.84% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.84% China 25 iS, FXI
0.79% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.78% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.78% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.77% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.77% Mexico Index, EWW
0.75% South Africa Index, EZA
0.67% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.61% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.54% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.53% Japan Index, EWJ
0.51% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.48% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.44% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.38% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.36% India PS, PIN
0.33% Singapore Index, EWS
0.33% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.24% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.21% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.06% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.02% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.00% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.12% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.16% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.22% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.51% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.57% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
