Stock price momentum may be running out.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA.

Financial (XLF) stock sector ETF absolute price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/12/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish).

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/12/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral).

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/12/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.

On Thursday, U.S. stock market price indexes eased modestly lower in the first 12 minutes before reversing to the upside. Prices rose above their highest highs of the previous 19 trading days at 10:31 a.m. but could not hold onto their gains. The market reversed to the downside and hit its low of the day at 3:51 p.m.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,683.42, down 0.34%) closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, but still above its widely-watched 50-day and 200-day SMAs.

NYSE total volume fell slightly to a level 9% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE both turned down on Thursday. The Up-Down Volume Line remains systematically bullish above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but the Advance-Decline Line turned neutral by falling below the 50-day SMA on 9/13/13.

Short-term, day-to-day price momentum may be running out. For the medium term, SPX is below its highs of May, July, and August, suggesting neutral/sideways price momentum. A large number of technical indicators agree that the stock market has lost significant upside momentum in recent months.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. Apart from the strict form of the Dow Theory, the Transportation Average whipsawed up above its 50-day SMAs on 8/27/13 and the Industrial Average whipsawed up above its 50-day SMAs on 9/11/13, so both Averages are systematically bullish again.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/29/13. Absolute price of QQQ rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. This year, absolute price of EFA peaked at 64.14 on 5/22/13, fell to a 6-month low at 56.44 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) is systematically bullish. IWM/SPY whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price whipsawed around its 50-day SMA since 8/19/13 and is currently systematically bullish above the 50-day SMA.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) is systematically neutral. MDY /SPY whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/11/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price whipsawed around its 50-day SMA since 8/19/13 and is currently systematically bullish above the 50-day SMA.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 weeks and whipsawed above its 50-day SMA on 8/26/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, however, DBA fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price rose further above its highs of the previous 15 months on 9/6/13, again confirming its preexisting systematically bullish trend. Support 38.14, 36.99, 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/12/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 16 weeks on 8/27/13. SLV price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, however, so SLV is far from turning systematically bullish. Support 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 19 weeks on 8/26/13. SLV/GLD crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/12/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.00% , WAG , WALGREEN
2.16% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
0.75% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
2.42% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
1.99% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
1.58% , YHOO , YAHOO
1.08% , FHN , First Horizon National
2.00% , D , DOMINION RSCS
1.34% , CBS , CBS CORP.
2.60% , UIS , UNISYS
1.68% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
5.43% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
1.07% , ASH , ASHLAND
2.92% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.91% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
0.54% , CMI , CUMMINS
0.85% , FLR , FLUOR
1.25% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
0.44% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
1.24% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
0.61% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
0.04% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
0.31% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1.78% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
0.52% , BA , BOEING
0.52% , USB , US BANCORP
0.49% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
1.19% , T , AT&T Corp., T
2.52% , KR , KROGER
0.84% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
0.53% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.11% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
0.21% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.52% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-5.17% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.34% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-2.55% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-3.06% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-3.80% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-0.55% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-3.23% , TXT , TEXTRON
-2.69% , GLW , CORNING
-0.99% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-1.32% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-2.48% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-0.88% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-4.18% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-1.68% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-2.47% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.69% , FDX , FEDEX
-1.00% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-1.33% , DE , DEERE & CO
-0.14% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.45% , CSX , CSX
-1.34% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-1.39% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-1.91% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-0.62% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.69% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.38% , TGT , TARGET
-1.32% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.09% , BMS , BEMIS
-1.92% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-0.60% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-0.41% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.31% , DD , DU PONT
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.00% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.87% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.75% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.53% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.49% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.31% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.25% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.18% , Spain Index, EWP
0.13% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.08% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.08% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.05% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.04% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.03% , Networking, IGN
0.02% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.01% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.07% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.08% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.09% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.09% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.11% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.12% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.12% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.13% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.13% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.13% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.14% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.14% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.14% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.16% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.17% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.20% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.20% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.21% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.21% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.22% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.23% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.26% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.26% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.27% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.27% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.27% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.28% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.28% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.29% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.29% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.31% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.31% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.35% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.36% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.40% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.40% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.41% , Dividend International, PID
-0.41% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.41% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.41% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.42% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.43% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.43% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.44% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.44% , Global 100, IOO
-0.44% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.45% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.47% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.47% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.47% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.48% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.48% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.49% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.49% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.50% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.50% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.51% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.52% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.52% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.53% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.53% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.54% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.57% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.58% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.59% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.59% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.59% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.61% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.61% , France Index, EWQ
-0.62% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.62% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.63% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.63% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.64% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.64% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.64% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.64% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.65% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.65% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.66% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.68% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.69% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.70% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.70% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.71% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.72% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.73% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.78% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.79% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.80% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.82% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.83% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.86% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.90% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.92% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.93% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.95% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.99% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.04% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.05% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.10% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.12% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.15% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.16% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.16% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.16% , Canada Index, EWC
-1.19% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.26% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.30% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.32% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.53% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.56% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.62% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.78% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.86% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.02% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.04% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.33% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.47% , Mexico Index, EWW
-2.55% , India PS, PIN
-2.55% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-3.06% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-5.52% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1689.97, high of 9/12/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1671.10, 50-day SMA
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 08/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1573.59, 200-day SMA
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009