. Weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.

Yesterday, I wrote: “Three days up is sufficient for a minor counter-trend correction. Price indexes already have recovered normal fractions of the previous week’s losses.”

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,151.06) fell 24.32 points or 2.07% on Wednesday, September 28, 2011.

SPX opened on an upside gap (again) and added to opening gains in the first 24 minutes. The buying wave peaked at 9:54 a.m. ET, and stocks spent the rest of the day surrendering the previous day’s gains–and then some.

Based on intraday extreme prices, SPX already has given back more than half of its gains over the previous 4 trading days, placing it in a weak position. This weakness confirms a change in the short-term bull/bear struggle in favor of the bear.

Minor upside reversals against the dominant bear trend lure short-term traders into trying to trade a bounce. Minor price corrections against the trend are normal and expected, of course, but playing counter-trend bounces is risky. The mood can switch from “risk on” to “risk off” overnight, leaving the too-clever trader suddenly holding the bag, as we have seen repeatedly over the past 7 weeks. And in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises come to the downside.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) shot up above the highs of the previous 4-weeks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below 13-month lows, reconfirming a major downtrend.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7-weeks.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below the lows of the previous 10 months, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months, reconfirming a major price downtrend. Such weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Stock Market Indicators

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above previous 10-year highs on 9/23/11 reconfirming a long-term uptrend. This means a long NASDAQ Composite and short S&P 500 hedge has been a winning trade. NASDAQ absolute price turned bearish, falling below 50-day and 200-day SMAs, on 9/20/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF /SPY) fell below 29-month lows on 9/22/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend. This basket of the stocks of Brazil, Russia, India and China is in a relatively bearish major trend.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 29-month lows on 9/22/11, reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. Absolute price broke down below 14-month lows on 9/22/11and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 7-year lows on 9/19/11, reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. Absolute price broke down below 14-month lows on 9/22/11 and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) shot up above the highs of the previous 4-weeks on 9/28/11. OEX/SPX rose above 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 9/21/11, which was a RELATIVELY bullish sign for the short term trend of the Ratio. Longer term, however, OEX/SPX fell below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. So, trends conflict in different time frames.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below 13-month lows on 9/28/11, reconfirming a major downtrend. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11, broke down below 12-month lows on 9/22/11, and remains below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7-weeks on 9/28/11, confirming a bearish minor trend. MDY/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 10-months on 8/8/11, confirming a bearish major trend.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 37.6% Bulls versus 40.9% Bears as of 9/28/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio was 0.92, up from 0.87 two weeks ago That 0.87 ratio was the lowest level since August, 2010 and was more than 1 standard deviation below the 20-year average. The 20-year median is 1.56 and the mean is 1.64.

VIX Fear Index remains stuck in its 7-week, relatively high level trading range, from a low of 30.16 to a high of 48.00. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,151.06) fell 24.32 points or 2.07% on Wednesday, September 28, 2011.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1234.56, low of 8/3/11
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1230.71, high of 8/31/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1101.54, low of 8/9/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price fell below 4-day lows on 9/28/11, signaling nothing more than a minor pullback. TLT rose above all-time highs on 9/22/11, reconfirming a major uptrend. Support 115.76, 114.05, 111.25, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 123.87.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price fell below 7-day lows on 9/28/11, signaling nothing more than a minor pullback. IEF rose above all-time highs on 9/22/11, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support 103.80, 103.55, 102.50, and 102.38. Resistance 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains bearish according to my objective 50/200 SMA system. JNK/LQD fell below 6-week lows on 9/22/11, confirming a bearish trend for the short term. JNK/LQD fell below 2-year lows on 8/10/11, confirming a bearish trend for the long term.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) remains bearish according to my objective 50/200 SMA system. TIP/IEF has been weak since peaking on 4/8/11 and fell below 13-month lows on 9/22/11. This bearish trend means that fixed-income investors have been choosing the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. So, fixed-income investors may be more worried about deflation than inflation.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above the highs of the previous 7 months on 9/22/11, reconfirming a major price uptrend. After the collapse of gold and the Swiss Franc, the U.S. dollar is the last refuge for risk-averse investors. Support 21.94, 21.75, 21.56, 21.42, and 20.84. Resistance 22.32 and 22.63.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 9/28/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price broke down from a Bearish Rising Wedge pattern on 9/19/11, thereby signaling renewed bearish momentum. USO fell below the lows of the previous 2-years intraday on 9/26/11 before reversing to close higher on the day. Still, a new low confirms a long-term major downtrend. Support 33.55, 33.25, 32.60, 31.45, 30.31, 26.28, 22.74. Resistance 35.08, 35.14, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price broke down below 9-week lows on 9/26/11,confirming a downtrend, for the short term at least. Gold rose above all-time highs on 9/6/11, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support: 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 170.32, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) whipsawed back below its falling 50-day SMA on 9/22/11 and remains below its falling 200-day SMA. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, confirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Investors still prefer Gold bullion over Gold Miners.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, confirming a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV fell back below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/11 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Support 26.03 and 24.44. Resistance: 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke down below the lows of the previous 10 months on 9/28/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 9/28/11, reconfirming a major price downtrend. Such weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.40% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
2.45% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
0.86% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
0.28% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
0.54% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
0.25% , JCP , JC PENNEY
0.16% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
0.29% , SPLS , STAPLES
0.16% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
4.10% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.33% , TEVA , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited
0.13% , KSS , KOHLS
0.16% , LLY , ELI LILLY
0.02% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
x.
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.08% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-3.62% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-3.38% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-9.23% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-0.98% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-1.30% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-3.54% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-7.15% , IP , INTL PAPER
-2.43% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.65% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-4.19% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-2.00% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-5.70% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-2.63% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-8.41% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.93% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
-1.34% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-2.75% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-1.98% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-2.53% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-2.09% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-4.16% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.83% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-2.83% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-2.69% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-3.81% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
-5.56% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-3.04% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-1.70% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.28% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-14.84% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
-6.40% , EL , Estee Lauder
-3.22% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.09% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.02% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.00% Japan Index, EWJ
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.08% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.40% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.48% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.58% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.62% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.77% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.01% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.07% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.09% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.11% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.12% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-1.30% Global 100, IOO
-1.32% Italy Index, EWI
-1.34% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.42% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.42% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.44% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-1.48% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.50% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.51% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.55% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.56% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.57% Dividend International, PID
-1.63% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.68% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.70% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.70% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.71% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.71% Spain Index, EWP
-1.72% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.73% France Index, EWQ
-1.76% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.78% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.78% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.79% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.79% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.82% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.88% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.93% Austria Index, EWO
-1.95% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.95% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.99% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.99% Germany Index, EWG
-2.04% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-2.05% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-2.07% Taiwan Index, EWT
-2.08% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-2.11% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-2.12% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-2.16% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.16% Malaysia Index, EWM
-2.18% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-2.21% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.21% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-2.21% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-2.22% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-2.23% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-2.28% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-2.30% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-2.34% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-2.40% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.43% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-2.45% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.47% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-2.47% Water Resources, PHO
-2.49% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.50% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-2.54% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.54% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.55% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.57% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.61% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.62% India PS, PIN
-2.66% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-2.68% Australia Index, EWA
-2.69% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.70% Mexico Index, EWW
-2.74% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.74% Energy Global, IXC
-2.75% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.75% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.76% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-2.77% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.78% MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.79% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.79% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.83% Networking, IGN
-2.87% Canada Index, EWC
-2.88% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.89% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.90% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.98% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-3.01% Emerging Markets, EEM
-3.02% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-3.12% Energy DJ, IYE
-3.14% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-3.15% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-3.17% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-3.17% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-3.21% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-3.25% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-3.27% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-3.27% Energy SPDR, XLE
-3.29% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-3.32% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.44% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-3.46% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-3.47% Singapore Index, EWS
-3.47% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-3.50% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-3.53% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-3.54% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-3.58% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-3.58% South Korea Index, EWY
-3.62% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-3.62% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-3.65% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-3.67% Sweden Index, EWD
-3.76% China 25 iS, FXI
-3.83% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-3.86% Microcap Russell, IWC
-3.92% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-4.03% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-4.05% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-4.14% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-4.16% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-4.37% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-4.42% Materials SPDR, XLB
-4.49% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-4.60% Russia MV, RSX
-5.06% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-5.96% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-6.82% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-7.38% Silver Trust iS, SLV