The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,257.08) absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 3 weeks on 12/5/11 but appeared to encounter resistance again, as expected, near its 200-day SMA, now at 1264.52. Short-term price momentum oscillators have lost some upside momentum in recent days. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

Stock markets may remain volatile, with a continuing heightened sensitivity to news, and with continuing large daily moves in both directions. Note that very high price volatility is typical of bear markets, while bull markets are much less volatile. Reward/Risk still appears significantly skewed to the Risk side.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price suffered a bearish reversal day after approaching the previous high at 39.74 set on 11/16/11.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days on 12/5/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days on 12/5/11

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price suffered a Bearish Engulfing Line.
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Stock Market Indicators

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,257.08) absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 3 weeks on 12/5/11 but appeared to encounter resistance again, as expected, near its 200-day SMA, now at 1264.52.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1264.52, 200-day SMA
1263.21, high of 11/3/2011
1260.08, high of 12/2/2011
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/21/11 when both Averages closed below previous 4-week lows after making lower highs since peaking on 10/27/11.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 3-months on 11/30/11 and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite remains below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) remains below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 years on 11/25/11, reconfirming the preexisting major Bear trend. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 12/2/11 and has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/11/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 69.5% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 30.5% Bears as of 11/30/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. Sentiment has returned to normal: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks to 25.29 intraday on 12/2/11, down from a peak of 48.00 on 8/8/11.This indicates significantly diminished fear. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose above the highs of the previous 2 trading days on 12/2/11. TLT also rose above its 50-day SMA and remains above its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 115.80, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 123.05 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) > rose above the highs of the previous 3 trading days on 12/5/11. IEF remains above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.43 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been in a downtrend since 2/8/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11. JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11. Absolute price of JNK has been weak since 10/27/11 and remains bearish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a downtrend since peaking on 4/8/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the highs of the previous 2 trading days on 12/2/11. UUP remains bullishly above 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.44 and 22.62.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) sagged lower in recent days after falling below the lows of the previous 11 months on 11/25/11–which confirmed a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price suffered a bearish reversal day after approaching the previous high at 39.74 set on 11/16/11. A price pullback now would come as no surprise. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Finally, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 36.79, 36.49, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days on 12/5/11. A price pullback now would come as no surprise. GLD remains bullishly above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 162.07, 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) is bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 3 trading days on 12/5/11. A deeper price correction now would come as no surprise. SLV is below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 29.83, 29.14, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price suffered a Bearish Engulfing Line Candlestick on 12/5/11. A price pullback now would come as no surprise. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.26% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
13.07% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
2.82% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
6.06% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
10.24% , GCI , GANNETT
1.51% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
1.45% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
3.95% , ETR , ENTERGY
1.03% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
0.17% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
1.22% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
5.87% , KMX , CarMax
3.76% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
1.59% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
5.65% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
1.23% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
1.94% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
3.15% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
0.76% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
6.05% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
4.73% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
0.86% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
3.89% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
5.58% , SPLS , STAPLES
1.38% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
4.31% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
2.06% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
2.75% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
3.13% , IGV , Software, IGV
1.16% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
2.18% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.44% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
4.57% , NBR , NABORS

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.90% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-1.04% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-2.74% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-4.46% , WPO , Washington Post
-1.60% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-1.56% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-1.15% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-1.22% , EL , Estee Lauder
-0.63% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-1.00% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-0.27% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
-1.03% , AMGN , AMGEN
-1.08% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-2.13% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-1.50% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.47% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-0.74% , SLE , SARA LEE
-0.66% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-1.47% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.11% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-2.03% , AEE , AMEREN
-0.45% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.44% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-0.36% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.50% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-1.53% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.58% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-0.38% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-2.51% , HUM , HUMANA
-0.37% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-0.82% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
-0.62% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-0.07% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.82% Italy Index, EWI
2.45% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.27% Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.18% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.07% South Africa Index, EZA
2.01% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.97% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.97% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.96% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.94% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.92% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.92% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.92% Spain Index, EWP
1.89% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.85% Russia MV, RSX
1.79% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.72% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.71% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.71% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.68% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.65% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.65% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.63% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.63% Australia Index, EWA
1.60% Mexico Index, EWW
1.59% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.59% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.59% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.59% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.58% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.51% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.51% Sweden Index, EWD
1.48% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.47% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.46% South Korea Index, EWY
1.45% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.45% Belgium Index, EWK
1.43% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.42% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.42% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.42% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.38% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.32% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.32% Energy DJ, IYE
1.31% Networking, IGN
1.31% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.30% Water Resources, PHO
1.29% China 25 iS, FXI
1.28% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.27% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.27% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.24% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.23% Financial Preferred, PGF
1.23% France Index, EWQ
1.20% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.19% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.19% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.18% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.17% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.16% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.16% European VIPERs, VGK
1.16% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.15% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.15% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.15% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.14% EAFE Index, EFA
1.13% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.13% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.13% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.10% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.10% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.09% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.09% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.07% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.07% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.06% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.04% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.04% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.03% Energy Global, IXC
1.03% Austria Index, EWO
1.03% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.03% Singapore Index, EWS
1.03% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.01% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.00% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.00% Global 100, IOO
0.98% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.98% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.98% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.95% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.93% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.92% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.91% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.91% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.88% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.87% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.86% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.86% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.85% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.85% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.83% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.82% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.81% Canada Index, EWC
0.80% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.80% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.78% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.78% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.76% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.75% Japan Index, EWJ
0.74% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.74% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.69% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.64% Germany Index, EWG
0.61% Dividend International, PID
0.60% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.56% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.53% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.53% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.48% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.41% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.25% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.18% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.11% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.10% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.03% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.05% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.06% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.06% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.06% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.20% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.33% India PS, PIN
-0.45% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.54% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.91% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.02% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.47% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.90% Silver Trust iS, SLV