The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,258.47) absolute price rose to challenge the previous day’s high and its 200-day SMA on 12/6/11 but collapsed in the final 46 minutes, giving up nearly all of its gain for the day. SPX appears to be encountering resistance, as expected, near its 200-day SMA, now at 1264.23 and declining fractionally every day. Short-term price momentum oscillators stalled out. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks.

Stock markets may become much more volatile, with heightened sensitivity to news, and with large daily moves in both directions. Note that very high price volatility is typical of bear markets, while bull markets are much less volatile. Reward/Risk still appears significantly skewed to the Risk side.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price tested its 50-day SMA, bounced, and closed strongly, which should be bullish for the short term.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 6 trading days on 12/6/11 before reversing to the upside to close higher.
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Stock Market Indicators

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,258.47) absolute price appears to be encountering resistance, as expected, near its 200-day SMA, now at 1264.23 and declining fractionally every day.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1266.93, high of 12/5/2011
1264.23, 200-day SMA

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/21/11 when both Averages closed below previous 4-week lows after making lower highs since peaking on 10/27/11.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 3-months on 11/30/11 and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite remains below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) remains below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 years on 11/25/11, reconfirming the preexisting major Bear trend. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 12/6/11 and has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/11/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 69.5% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 30.5% Bears as of 11/30/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. Sentiment has returned to normal: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks to 25.29 intraday on 12/2/11, down from a peak of 48.00 on 8/8/11.This indicates significantly diminished fear. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell moderately to test its 50-day SMA on 12/6/11. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 115.80, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 123.05 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) fell moderately below its 50-day SMA on 12/6/11. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.43 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been in a minor uptrend since 11/23/11 but still remains in a larger downtrend since 2/8/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11. JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11. Absolute price of JNK has been weak since 10/27/11 and remains bearish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a downtrend since peaking on 4/8/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) appears to be consolidating above its 50-day SMA. UUP remains bullishly above 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.44 and 22.62.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 11 months on 12/6/11, thereby confirming a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price suffered a bearish reversal day after approaching the previous high at 39.74 set on 11/16/11. A price pullback now would come as no surprise. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Finally, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 36.79, 36.49, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price tested its 50-day SMA, bounced, and closed strongly, which should be bullish for the short term. GLD remains bullishly above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 165.53, 162.07, 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below its falling 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 6 trading days on 12/6/11 before reversing to the upside to close higher and back above its 50-day SMA. SLV remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 29.83, 29.14, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 6 trading days on 12/6/11 before reversing to the upside to close higher. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.60% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
2.91% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
3.88% , LLY , ELI LILLY
4.05% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
5.71% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
3.54% , SLM , SLM CORP
0.41% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
1.27% , SEE , SEALED AIR
0.63% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.83% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.32% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
0.35% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
4.69% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
2.39% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
1.52% , ACE , ACE
2.08% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
1.41% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
0.72% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.72% , LOW , LOWES
0.63% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
0.49% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
0.57% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
0.10% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
0.83% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
0.40% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
1.57% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
0.41% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
1.50% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
0.17% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
0.33% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
0.99% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
0.55% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1.91% , MO , ALTRIA, MO

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-12.38% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-7.28% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-13.97% , DYN , DYNEGY
-6.16% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-3.92% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-1.04% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
-5.75% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-4.38% , FHN , First Horizon National
-1.13% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-0.16% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-2.41% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-3.47% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-6.43% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-0.61% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-3.57% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-2.97% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-3.09% , ZION , ZIONS
-0.63% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-3.28% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-3.37% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-2.02% , NCR , NCR
-1.15% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.67% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
-1.45% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.60% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-0.74% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-0.33% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-1.12% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
-1.49% , IR , INGER RAND
-1.38% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-0.12% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.36% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-0.35% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.83% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.98% Spain Index, EWP
0.93% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.78% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.64% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.63% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.55% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.54% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.51% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.50% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.48% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.45% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.45% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.42% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.42% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.41% Austria Index, EWO
0.36% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.34% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.31% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.29% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.27% Dividend International, PID
0.27% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.26% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.24% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.24% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.24% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.23% South Africa Index, EZA
0.23% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.23% Energy Global, IXC
0.23% Italy Index, EWI
0.23% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.22% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.19% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.19% Global 100, IOO
0.18% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.18% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.17% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.16% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.14% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.13% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.13% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.13% Mexico Index, EWW
0.12% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.11% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.11% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.10% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.10% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.10% Energy DJ, IYE
0.09% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.08% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.06% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.06% Water Resources, PHO
0.06% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.06% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.05% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.05% European VIPERs, VGK
0.04% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.04% Canada Index, EWC
0.03% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.03% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.03% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.02% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.01% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.00% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.00% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.01% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.03% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.03% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.03% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.03% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.03% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.04% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.06% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.06% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.07% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.07% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.08% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.09% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.10% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.11% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.12% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.12% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.13% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.14% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.14% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.15% France Index, EWQ
-0.16% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.16% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.16% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.17% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.18% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.20% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.21% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.23% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.24% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.24% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.25% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.25% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.26% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.27% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.27% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.28% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.33% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.35% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.39% Germany Index, EWG
-0.40% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.41% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.45% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.47% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.47% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.52% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.53% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.56% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.57% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.60% India PS, PIN
-0.61% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.63% Networking, IGN
-0.71% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.83% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.84% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.95% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.02% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.04% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.06% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.12% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.13% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.15% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.17% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.19% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.22% Australia Index, EWA
-1.27% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.30% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.36% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.42% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.45% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.48% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.26% Taiwan Index, EWT
-6.16% Russia MV, RSX