S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,279.20) rose 5.48 points or 0.43% on Friday. SPX has retraced less than one-third of its 7.07% intraday decline from its 1,344.07 peak set on 2/18/11. Charles Dow and his followers considered one-third to two-thirds countertrend retracements to be normal within a trend. On Wednesday, 3/16/11, SPX broke down below 12-week lows, confirmed by the great majority of indexes and indicators. SPX and the other major indexes remain below 50-day simple moving averages. The intermediate-term trend appears to have been seriously damaged.
Consumer Discretionary SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell below 5-week lows and below its 50-day SMA on 3/18/11. It is now neutral.
Technology SPDR stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 3/18/11. The 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio is heading toward a cross below the 200-day SMA in days ahead, which will be a bearish signal.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 5-month lows on 3/18/11. The ratio is below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The trend since the peak on 1/18/11 is clearly bearish.
Crude Oil price rose above 5-day highs, intraday, but reversed to close lower on 3/18/11. The short-term trend is now in doubt.
Gold and Silver rose above 2-day highs early in the morning on 3/18/11 but gave up much of that gain as the day wore on. Both still may remain in consolidation patterns.
The U.S. dollar broke down below its recent low of 76.145, which was a critical level. Once again, USD has reconfirmed its preexisting intermediate-term downtrend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
10.57% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
9.67% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
2.05% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
8.58% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
4.36% , SVU , SUPERVALU
4.74% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
3.08% , INTU , INTUIT
3.07% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
1.49% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
2.52% , FHN , First Horizon National
3.31% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
0.73% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
3.41% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
1.35% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
2.48% , TNB , THOMAS & BETTS
1.59% , FISV , FISERV
2.83% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
2.70% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
2.14% , BBY , BEST BUY
2.23% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
1.99% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
1.33% , ZION , ZIONS
1.55% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
1.53% , SYK , STRYKER
3.64% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.96% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.16% , SPLS , STAPLES
0.96% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
2.78% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
0.79% , KEY , KEYCORP
1.39% , CTAS , CINTAS
3.03% , WPO , Washington Post
1.79% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.16% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-3.40% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-2.80% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-3.62% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-6.63% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-2.10% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
-0.67% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-1.65% , VFC , VF
-1.34% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-0.85% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-0.77% , TGT , TARGET
-1.18% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-0.87% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-1.60% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-0.64% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-1.99% , COH , COACH
-1.79% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-1.46% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-0.90% , MOLX , MOLEX
-1.00% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
-2.39% , X , US STEEL CORP
-1.47% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-0.40% , XLY , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-3.21% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-1.07% , ALTR , ALTERA
-0.63% , WAG , WALGREEN
-0.32% , GAS , NICOR
-0.83% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-2.36% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-0.04% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-0.52% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
-0.71% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-0.44% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 17-month highs on 3/17/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year closing price highs on 3/7/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 72.90, 72.85, 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 79.22, 83.27 and 91.42.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 3-week highs on 3/17/11, turning bullish again. Absolute price broke down below 9-week lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 35.08, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 38.09, 39.02, and 39.97.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell below 5-week lows and below its 50-day SMA on 3/18/11. It is now neutral. Absolute price broke down below 6-week lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 39.58, 40.02, 40.13, and 40.70.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 3/10/11 and remains neutral. In addition, absolute price broke down below 14-week lows on 3/15/11 and remains neutral. Support 36.44, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 40.83 and 41.06.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) broke down below 11-week lows on 3/4/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price broke down below 10-week lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.85, 17.20, and 17.87.
Technology (XLK) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 3/18/11. The 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio is heading toward a cross below the 200-day SMA in days ahead, which will be a bearish signal. Absolute price of XLK fell below 14-week lows and remains neutral. Support 24.87, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 26.66, 27.09, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 7 weeks on 3/10/11 and is now neutral. Absolute price broke down below 2-month lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 33.23, 33.37, and 33.74.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 3/10/11 and is now neutral. Absolute price broke down below 3-month lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.96 and 30.29.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/17/11, turning bearish again. Absolute price broke down below 3-month lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.89, 33.00, 34.89, and 36.24.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 8-month lows on 2/22/11, again reconfirming its bearish trend. The ratio turned bearish from neutral on 2/4/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 11-month lows on 3/16/11, confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 5-month lows on 3/18/11. The ratio is below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The trend since the peak on 1/18/11 is clearly bearish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 3/16/11, confirming a bearish major trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 3/18/11, turning bullish. Long term, the ratio rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10, which confirmed a bullish trend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above all-time highs on 3/16/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. The ratio turned bullish from neutral on 2/7/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 5-day highs, intraday, but reversed to close lower on 3/18/11. The short-term trend is now in doubt. The larger trend remains bullish: Oil rose above 2-year highs on 3/7/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 97.02, 96.22, 95.14, 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 73.52, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 104.54, 106.95, 110.30, 111.34, 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose above 2-day highs early in the morning on 3/18/11 but gave up much of that gain as the day wore on. Gold still may remain in a consolidation pattern. The larger trend remains bullish: Gold rose above all-time highs on 3/7/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1445.7.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) crossed below its 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages on 3/7/11 and 3/8/11, thereby turning bearish.
Silver nearest futures contract price rose above 2-day highs early in the morning on 3/18/11 but gave up much of that gain as the day wore on. Silver still may remain in a consolidation pattern. The larger trend remains bullish: Silver rose above previous 31-year highs on 3/7/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 33.565, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 36.745 and 50.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 27-year highs on 3/11/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Copper nearest futures contract price stalled out on 3/18/11 after rising above 5-day highs on 3/17/11. Copper may still remain in a consolidation pattern. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 4.076, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.245, 4.554, 4.6495, and 4.6575.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below 2-day lows on 3/18/11 before reversing to close with only a small loss. The short-term trend may still be bullish. The intermediate-term trend remains bullish. Support 120.23, 119.24, 118.05, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 123.22, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) turned neutral on 3/10/11 by falling below 6-week lows and below its 50-day SMA. JNK absolute price also turned neutral by falling below 7-week lows and below its 50-day SMA.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected TIPs at a relatively more subdued pace since 8/24/10, compared to the more severe price drop of the 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF).
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price broke down below its recent low of 76.145, which was a critical level. Once again, USD has reconfirmed its preexisting intermediate-term downtrend. Long term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, confirming a major downtrend. Support 75.235, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 77.675, 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 52.2% Bulls versus 22.3% Bears as of 3/16/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 2.34, down from 2.47 the previous week and down from 3.00 on 1/12/11. These numbers do not fully reflect probable change in sentiment since the tsunami severely damaged the nuclear power plant in Japan. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.56, and the mean is 1.63.
VIX Fear Index broke out above its 6 months trading range in the 16-24 zone to an intraday peak of 31.28 on 3/16/11, indicating an upsurge in fear among options players. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 2/17/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
On 3/16/11, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average fell below their closing price lows of the previous 10 weeks. This bearish confirmation raises the possibility of a more severe Secondary Reaction downside correction that could stretch out further in time and extend further downward in price.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,279.20) rose 5.48 points or 0.43% on Friday. SPX has retraced less than one-third of its 7.07% intraday decline from its 1,344.07 peak set on 2/18/11. Charles Dow and his followers considered one-third to two-thirds countertrend retracements to be normal within a trend. On Wednesday, 3/16/11, SPX broke down below 12-week lows, confirmed by the great majority of indexes and indicators. SPX and the other major indexes remain below 50-day simple moving averages. The intermediate-term trend appears to have been seriously damaged.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1344.07, high of 2/18/11
1332.28, high of 3/3/11
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.91% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.53% India PS, PIN
2.46% India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.39% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.13% Russia MV, RSX
2.10% South Africa Index, EZA
1.78% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.60% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1.59% Networking, IGN
1.51% Mexico Index, EWW
1.49% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.44% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.44% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.43% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.39% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.37% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.33% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.32% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.29% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.26% Water Resources, PHO
1.22% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.21% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.20% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.19% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.18% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.16% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.11% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.09% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.09% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.08% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.08% Sweden Index, EWD
1.05% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.04% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.04% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.04% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.04% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.02% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.02% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.01% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.01% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.00% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.98% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.97% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.91% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.89% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.87% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.87% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.81% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.81% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.80% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.78% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.75% China 25 iS, FXI
0.75% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.74% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.73% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.72% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.69% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.69% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.68% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.67% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.66% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.66% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.65% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.65% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.63% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.63% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.62% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.61% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.60% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.60% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.60% Italy Index, EWI
0.59% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.59% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.57% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.56% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.56% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.55% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.55% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.55% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.54% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.53% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.51% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.46% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.46% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.45% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.43% European VIPERs, VGK
0.40% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.39% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.39% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.37% Belgium Index, EWK
0.33% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.31% Canada Index, EWC
0.31% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.31% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.29% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.27% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.26% Austria Index, EWO
0.25% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.23% Germany Index, EWG
0.22% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.22% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.22% Energy Global, IXC
0.21% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.18% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.16% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.14% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.14% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.13% Dividend International, PID
0.12% Global 100, IOO
0.09% Energy DJ, IYE
0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% EAFE Index, EFA
0.04% Japan Index, EWJ
0.03% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.02% Spain Index, EWP
0.02% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.00% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.02% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.04% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.05% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.08% France Index, EWQ
-0.13% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.14% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.15% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.19% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.27% Australia Index, EWA
-0.35% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.37% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.40% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.42% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.45% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.85% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.23% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.34% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.17% Taiwan Index, EWT
