The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,176.80) rose 17.53 points or 1.51% on Friday, August 26, 2011, making back nearly all it lost on Thursday. SPX remains below its popular 20-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs (simple moving averages), however, so trends are still bearish in different time frames, short, medium, and long term.

NYSE volume fell 12%, casting doubt on Friday’s price upturn.

The dominant technical trend has been persistently bearish, and that is the bias. In a bear market, surprises come to the downside. And so, playing minor counter trend bounces is risky.

Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
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Includes Top Ten ETFs and Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings.
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Stock Market Indicators

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio turned upward on Friday, 8/26/11, crossing slightly above its 200-day SMA. The Ratio remains below 20- and 50-day SMAs, however. Absolute closing price broke down below 10-month closing price lows on 8/19/11 and remains bearish.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains bearish. The EEM/SPY Ratio has been in a downtrend since peaking on 10/14/10. EEM/SPY broke down below 6-month lows on 8/25/11, remains below its 50- and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11 and broke down below 13-month lows on 8/8/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains bearish. The EFA/SPY Ratio has been in a major long-term downtrend since peaking on 11/27/07. EFA/SPY broke down below 15-month lows on 8/25/11, remains below its 50- and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11 and broke down below 11-month lows on 8/8/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) turned down on Friday, 8/26/11, crossing slightly below its 20-day SMA. Longer term, OEX/SPX fell below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, confirming a bearish major trend. Absolute price of OEX fell below the lows of the previous 11 months on 8/9/11 and remains bearish.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains bearish. IWM/SPY fell below 11-month lows on 8/22/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains bearish. MDY/SPY fell below 11-month lows on 8/8/11, confirming a bearish major trend.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 40.9% Bulls versus 33.3% Bears as of 8/24/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio was 1.23, down from 1.95 the previous week. The 20-year median is 1.56 and the mean is 1.64.

VIX Fear Index rose to 48.00 on 8/8/11, its highest level in 14 months, since 5/21/10. VIX is in an uptrend, and it is possible for VIX to rise much higher: VIX was 89.53 on 10/24/08 during the financial crisis. Options players tend to grow more fearful as stock prices decline, and the trend of stock prices is down. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,176.80) rose 17.53 points or 1.51% on Friday, August 26, 2011, making back nearly all it lost on Thursday. SPX remains below its popular 20-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs (simple moving averages), however, so trends are still bearish in different time frames, short, medium, and long term.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1234.56, low of 8/3/11
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1208.47, high of 8/17/2010

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1101.54, low of 8/9/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned choppy and corrective last week and looks uncertain for the short term. Longer term, TLT rose above the highs of the previous 2 years on 8/18/11, confirming a major uptrend. Although minor price consolidations and corrections are to be expected in bullish price trends, the dominant trend remains bullish. Support 108.10, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 116.92, and 123.15.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 2-year lows and fell further below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day simple moving averages on 8/10/11, confirming a major bearish trend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 10-month lows on 8/24/11. TIP/IEF has been weak since peaking on 4/8/11 and remains below 3 key SMAs, of 20, 50, and 200 days. This means fixed-income investors have been choosing the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. Fixed-income investors are not worried about inflation.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below 3-month lows on 8/17/11, suggesting a medium-term downtrend. The sideways Continuation Pattern (which suggests that the previous major long-term downtrend may resume) since the low of 20.84 on 5/4/11 recently appeared to be “rolling over”, that is, showing a bearish bias. Support 20.84. Resistance 21.41, 21.74, 21.86, and 22.21.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) rose above the highs of the previous 3 months on 8/26/11, confirming a short-term uptrend. Keep in mind that on 8/9/11, DBA traded below 8-month lows, confirming a medium-term downtrend. Too many whipsaw reversals make this a difficult market to trade.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) showed a Bearish Engulfing Line Candlestick on 8/25/11, giving another bearish warning. Oil rose above the highs of the previous 4 trading days intraday on 8/24/11 but reversed to close down on the day. Oil fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 8/9/11, confirming a major downtrend. Support 31.45, 30.31, 26.28, 22.74. Resistance 34.63, 35.14, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) turned choppy and corrective last week and looks uncertain for the short term. Gold rose above all-time highs on 8/22/11, confirming its major long-term uptrend. Although minor price consolidations and corrections are to be expected in any trend, the dominant trend remains persistently bullish. In a world of too much debt, weak currencies, and self-serving politicians running amok, investors around the globe seek the safety of gold as the only forever-true money. Support: 165.88. 159.68, 156.11, 154.10, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 184.82.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, again confirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) turned choppy and corrective last week and looks uncertain for the short term. Silver rose above 3-month highs on 8/22/11, confirming a medium-term price uptrend. Support 38.05, 36.04, 35.29, 34.02, and 31.97. Resistance: 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) rose above the highs of the previous 11 days on 8/26/11, possibly suggesting a minor recovery attempt. But JJC fell below the lows of the previous 8 months on 8/10/11, again confirming a significant downtrend. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook, while strength in Copper suggests confidence. Support 50.59 and 49.00. Resistance: 54.29, 56.64, 57.48, 59.06, 60.04, and 61.69.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.49% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
9.35% , TIF , TIFFANY
1.86% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
6.03% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
2.16% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
5.39% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
1.52% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
2.21% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
3.62% , IGN , Networking, IGN
6.34% , PWER , POWER ONE
4.35% , TNB , THOMAS & BETTS
4.79% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
1.53% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
3.89% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
5.20% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
1.97% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.23% , RTH , Retail H, RTH
1.77% , AN , AUTONATION
2.65% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
1.81% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
1.41% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
7.49% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
1.86% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.69% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
4.24% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
1.37% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
2.85% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
3.24% , TLAB , TELLABS
2.16% , MAS , MASCO
0.67% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
1.14% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
2.19% , SWH , Software H, SWH
2.39% , MDP , MEREDITH

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.27% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-2.44% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-2.96% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.64% , SEE , SEALED AIR
-2.59% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.01% , YHOO , YAHOO
-0.25% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
-2.13% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.36% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.61% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.89% , PCG , PG&E
-0.83% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-0.25% , WPO , Washington Post
-0.98% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-0.69% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-1.50% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.29% , SLM , SLM CORP
-0.36% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.33% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-0.33% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-0.42% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
-1.05% , ED , CON ED
-0.15% , SO , SOUTHERN
-0.03% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.81% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
3.66% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
3.62% Networking, IGN
3.49% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
3.29% South Korea Index, EWY
3.02% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.97% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
2.96% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
2.91% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
2.85% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
2.85% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
2.81% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.78% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.67% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
2.66% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
2.57% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
2.56% Russia MV, RSX
2.56% South Africa Index, EZA
2.56% Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.55% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.51% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
2.49% Australia Index, EWA
2.46% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.41% Technology DJ US, IYW
2.40% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
2.39% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
2.38% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
2.37% Water Resources, PHO
2.26% Indonesia MV, IDX
2.25% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.23% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
2.18% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
2.18% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
2.17% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
2.13% Japan Index, EWJ
2.11% Materials SPDR, XLB
2.09% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
2.09% MidCap Russell, IWR
2.08% Industrial SPDR, XLI
2.08% Energy VIPERs, VDE
2.03% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
2.01% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.99% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.97% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.97% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.97% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.96% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.94% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.86% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.86% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.83% Austria Index, EWO
1.82% Energy DJ, IYE
1.80% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.79% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.73% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.71% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.70% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.68% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.68% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.67% Sweden Index, EWD
1.66% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.57% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.57% EAFE Index, EFA
1.57% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.55% Germany Index, EWG
1.52% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.52% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.51% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.49% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.49% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.46% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.46% Singapore Index, EWS
1.46% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.45% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.41% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.35% Energy Global, IXC
1.34% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.31% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.30% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.29% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.28% European VIPERs, VGK
1.26% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.23% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.22% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.22% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.17% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.17% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.16% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.16% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.16% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.16% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.14% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.11% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.09% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.08% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.07% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.05% Global 100, IOO
1.03% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.03% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.03% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.03% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.01% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
1.00% Mexico Index, EWW
1.00% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.99% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.99% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.98% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.93% Italy Index, EWI
0.92% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.91% Belgium Index, EWK
0.90% China 25 iS, FXI
0.87% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.85% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.84% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.82% Dividend International, PID
0.79% France Index, EWQ
0.74% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.73% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.67% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.66% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.66% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.63% Canada Index, EWC
0.62% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.59% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.55% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.53% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.41% Spain Index, EWP
0.35% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.32% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.30% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.19% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.14% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.05% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.01% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.07% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.15% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.36% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.52% India PS, PIN
-0.61% India Earnings WTree, EPI