Utilities stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 12-month high on 8/31/10 and remains bullish.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 8-week highs on 8/31/10, again confirming a significant uptrend.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose to its highest daily close in 19-months on 8/31/10, again confirming that the major trend remains bullish.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell sharply on 8/31/10, breaking 3-day lows. Oil has been heading down most days since making a high at 83.40 on 8/4/10. A longer time frame downside correction started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10. Watch critical support around 70.76 and 70.35.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,048.92 ) 1,049.33) consolidated losses while holding above the 1039.70 low of 8/27/10. SPX remains below a 3-week trendline as well as below falling 50 and 200 SMAs. The market may need to demonstrate upside follow-through in order to turn around investor confidence, which has fallen to a low level. Rally attempts appear to be unable to attract much of a following. It still feels like a “show me” market. One of the problems is that, since April 2010, the high volume days have been down days, suggesting that supply of stocks for sale has dominated buying demand for stocks. The stock market has been consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. Without a strong bullish catalyst, further consolidation seems likely for the days ahead.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.56% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
5.41% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
0.43% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
0.63% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
2.22% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
0.58% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
1.15% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
2.86% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
3.43% , ZEUS , Olympic Steell, ZEUS
1.92% , FHN , FIRST TENNESSEE
1.65% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
2.30% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
1.24% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
1.90% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.34% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
2.95% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
2.20% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
0.96% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.84% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
0.99% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
1.52% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
0.97% , CI , CIGNA
1.24% , MRK , MERCK & CO
0.26% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
0.97% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.14% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
0.08% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
1.50% , T , AT&T Corp., T
0.68% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
4.19% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
0.18% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
2.45% , IP , INTL PAPER
2.90% , CMA , COMERICA
1.68% , AFL , AFLAC
1.56% , MET , METLIFE
2.32% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
1.62% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.45% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.02% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
1.06% , C , CITIGROUP
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.83% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-5.81% , MON , MONSANTO
-0.45% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-6.43% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-1.47% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-1.77% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-3.89% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-0.57% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-0.14% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-4.04% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-6.02% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-3.39% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-1.31% , PWY , Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
-3.33% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.52% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.42% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
-3.08% , VFC , VF
-0.92% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-1.99% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-2.45% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-0.44% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-2.57% , A , AGILENT TECH
-1.88% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-2.24% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
-2.66% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-1.41% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-2.77% , WPO , Washington Post
-2.51% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
-1.96% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-1.76% , TJX , TJX
-1.54% , AES , AES
-0.67% , ELG , Growth Large Cap, ELG
-1.69% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-1.51% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-2.40% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-1.54% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
-3.27% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.46% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-2.00% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-1.24% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 12-month high on 8/31/10 and remains bullish: above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200. Absolute price of XLU turned bullish on 8/18/10 with a SMA bullish crossover (50>200). Support 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.64 and 32.08.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 8/24/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Absolute price of XLP turned neutral on 8/27/10 as price closed above the 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA of price remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 8-week highs on 8/20/10, confirming a bullish trend. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY turned bearish on 8/20/10 as the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 32.41, 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose to a new 12-month high on 8/31/10. Technically, the Ratio , remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA–although the SMAs appear to be converging toward a possible bullish crossover in weeks ahead. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 32.93, 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) crossed below the 50-day SMA 8/24/10, turning neutral. Absolute price fell further below 4-week lows on 8/24/10 and remains bearish relative to both SMAs (50 and 200). Support 27.67, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 31.15, 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to a 3-month low on 8/13/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK remains bearish, below both SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.38, 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 7/1/08 and fell below 8-week lows on 8/26/10. Absolute price of XLE turned bearish after peaking on 4/26/10. Support 50.42, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/30/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price fell to a new 12-month low on 8/25/10 and has been in a bearish trend since peaking on 4/15/10. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 10-month high on 8/20/10, again confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM fell into the bearish zone on 8/30/10. Price is below both SMAs, and the price 50-day remains below the 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 6-month lows on 8/13/10, thereby confirming a significant correction to the downside.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 6/15/10. Longer term, RSP /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 11/19/08.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be consolidating losses since its low on 6/15/10. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has crossed below both 50 & 100 SMAs and remains technically neutral. Still, this Ratio has demonstrated underperformance of Small Caps since peaking on 5/17/10. Longer term, however, IWM/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/8/99.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 5/28/10. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell sharply on 8/31/10, breaking 3-day lows. Oil has been heading down most days since making a high at 83.40 on 8/4/10. A longer time frame downside correction started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10. Watch critical support around 70.76 and 70.35. Support 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 77.03, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 8-week highs on 8/31/10, again confirming a significant uptrend. Support 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1120.9, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9, and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8 and 1267.1.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio has been mostly neutral, consolidating losses since making a low on 2/8/10. Longer term, Silver has underperformed Gold since 4/19/06.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose above 4-month highs on 8/30/10, confirming an intermediate-term Secondary Uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.68, 3.795, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose to its highest daily close in 19-months on 8/31/10, again confirming that the major trend remains bullish. Support 130.29, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 3-month lows on 8/26/10, again confirming the preexisting bearish trend. The Ratio has been heading lower since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and Junk outperforming.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell further below 15-month lows on 8/24/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price has been consolidating gains since making a 4-week high at 83.635 on 8/24/10. The short-term trend appears to be bullish, while the larger time frames appear uncertain. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 83.64, 85.36, 86.71, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 33.3% Bulls versus 31.21% Bears as of 8/25/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.07, down from 1.18 the previous week. This ratio hit a low at 0.94 on 7/14/10, which was the lowest since 0.82 on 4/1/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Minor Ripple to the downside within a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. In recent weeks, since join closing highs on 8/9/10, both Averages have been giving back most of the gains made from the lows on 7/2/10 to the highs on 8/9/10. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,049.33) consolidated losses while holding above the 1039.70 low of 8/27/10. SPX remains below a 3-week trendline as well as below falling 50 and 200 SMAs. The market may need to demonstrate upside follow-through in order to turn around investor confidence, which has fallen to a low level. Rally attempts appear to be unable to attract much of a following. It still feels like a “show me” market. One of the problems is that, since April 2010, the high volume days have been down days, suggesting that supply of stocks for sale has dominated buying demand for stocks. The stock market has been consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. Without a strong bullish catalyst, further consolidation seems likely for the days ahead.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
1071.07, Gann 50.0% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1069.49, low of 8/16/10
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.99% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.90% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.62% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.61% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.27% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.17% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.15% Spain Index, EWP
1.13% Russia MV, RSX
1.12% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.11% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.00% Sweden Index, EWD
0.97% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.96% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.94% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.93% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.86% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.86% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.85% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.85% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.76% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.76% South Africa Index, EZA
0.75% Italy Index, EWI
0.73% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.69% European VIPERs, VGK
0.69% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.64% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.60% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.60% Belgium Index, EWK
0.60% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.58% France Index, EWQ
0.57% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.56% Mexico Index, EWW
0.56% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.55% India PS, PIN
0.52% Germany Index, EWG
0.49% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.48% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.48% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.46% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.45% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.45% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.42% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.40% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.37% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.35% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.34% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.33% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.32% Global 100, IOO
0.32% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.30% EAFE Index, EFA
0.30% Dividend International, PID
0.30% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.28% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.27% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.26% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.26% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.24% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.22% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.22% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.22% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.21% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.19% Australia Index, EWA
0.18% Austria Index, EWO
0.16% Singapore Index, EWS
0.14% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.13% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.13% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.10% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.08% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.08% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.08% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.07% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.06% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.05% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.03% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.03% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.02% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.00% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.00% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.00% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.02% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.02% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.02% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.03% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.03% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.03% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.06% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.08% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.10% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.11% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.13% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.15% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.15% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.16% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.16% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.17% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.17% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.17% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.18% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.20% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.20% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.20% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.20% Water Resources, PHO
-0.20% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.21% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.22% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.23% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.23% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.26% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.27% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.27% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.31% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.34% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.34% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.38% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.39% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.39% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.40% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.41% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.42% Canada Index, EWC
-0.46% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.52% Energy Global, IXC
-0.52% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.58% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.66% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.70% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.73% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.74% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.89% Networking, IGN
-1.16% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.33% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.72% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.86% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-3.33% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO