Health Care stock sector ETF (XLY) price rose above the highs of the previous 8 months.
Technology stock sector ETF (XLK) price rose above the highs of the previous 3 years.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/1/12, turning technically neutral again.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks, thereby confirming a short-term, downside correction.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 9 weeks, thereby confirming its preexisting uptrend.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,324.09) rose 0.89% on Wednesday. SPX rose above the highs of the previous 3 trading days. Trading volume turned up slightly but remains at a low level.
The SPX 50-day SMA crossed above its 200-day SMA on 1/31/12, thanks to lower numbers dropping out of the moving 50-day window. This “Golden Cross” is widely believed to offer a bullish trend confirmation. Most people don’t seem to realize that there are a majority of unprofitable whipsaws using the “Golden Cross”. This may prove to one.
The latest sentiment data indicates bullish complacency. When the majority of investors is bullish, and therefore already invested in the market, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Investors Intelligence Sentiment: There were 70.2% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 29.8% Bears, according to the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of stock market newsletter advisors reported on 2/1/11. This represents modestly above average level of bullish sentiment: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.5% and the mean is 69.0%.
AAII Sentiment: There were 48% Bulls and 19% Bears, according to the AAII weekly survey reported on 1/26/11. That was an uptick in mood from the previous week’s reading, and it was nearly 1.3 standard deviations more optimistic than the 20-year average.
VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 5 months on 1/26/12, hitting 16.80 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1349.31, Fibonacci 87.5% projection 10/11 range
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1333.47, high of 1/26/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.21, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 2/1/12, turning technically neutral again. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend for the longer term. Support 115.55, 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 1/31/12. IEF remains above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend. Support 104.00, 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.66.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/18/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/19/12 but remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below the lows of the previous 11 weeks on 2/1/12, confirming a downside correction. UUP fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/23/11, turning technically neutral. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.93, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.41, 22.46, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 4 trading days on 1/30/21. DBA remains neutral, above its 50-day SMA but below its 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 2/1/12, thereby confirming a short-term, downside correction. USO broke out above the highs of the previous 7 months on 1/4/12, thereby confirming a major uptrend. Support 37.22, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 9 weeks on 2/1/12, thereby confirming its preexisting uptrend. GLD broke out above a 4-month downtrend line on 1/25/12. GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/23/12. GLD remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 167.05, 160.29, 159.68, 158.01, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 1/24/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. GDX/GLD remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) confirmed a bullish short-term trend. SLV rose above the highs of the previous 10 weeks on 1/27/12 and rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12. SLV remains below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 30.67, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) has been rising since 12/28/11. SLV/GLD rose above the highs of the previous 11 weeks on 1/27/12. SLV/GLD rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV/GLD fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) whipsawed back below its 200-day SMA on 1/30/12, turning technically neutral. Longer term, JJC’s 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.29% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
13.48% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
4.12% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
1.70% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
1.56% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
9.85% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
2.23% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
4.09% , PKI , PERKINELMER
5.93% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
2.34% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
2.42% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
2.46% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
8.09% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
1.65% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
2.38% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.02% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.33% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
2.83% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
1.43% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
9.99% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.37% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
5.28% , MBI , MBIA
4.00% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
1.04% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
2.96% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
4.40% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.82% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
2.27% , PIN , India PS, PIN
2.30% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
5.53% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
2.03% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
2.17% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
3.40% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-14.12% , UIS , UNISYS
-7.02% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-2.32% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-7.70% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-1.97% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.98% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.96% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.68% , VFC , VF
-4.84% , DYN , DYNEGY
-0.59% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.71% , AGN , ALLERGAN
-1.26% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.62% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.94% , KSS , KOHLS
-0.72% , F , FORD MOTOR
-0.53% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.10% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
-0.35% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-1.87% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.80% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.42% , K , KELLOGG
-0.37% , HYG , Bond High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.68% , SLE , SARA LEE
-0.81% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-0.40% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-0.07% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.14% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
-1.16% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.55% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-0.18% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.12% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-1.01% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-0.16% , EMC , EMC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.36% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
3.43% India Earnings WTree, EPI
3.29% South Africa Index, EZA
3.05% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.97% Russia MV, RSX
2.96% Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.83% Sweden Index, EWD
2.68% Water Resources, PHO
2.65% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.44% Germany Index, EWG
2.43% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.42% Belgium Index, EWK
2.39% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.38% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.35% Latin Am 40, ILF
2.32% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.30% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.27% Netherlands Index, EWN
2.27% India PS, PIN
2.27% Indonesia MV, IDX
2.24% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.23% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.22% Emerging Markets, EEM
2.18% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
2.16% Italy Index, EWI
2.15% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
2.14% EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.14% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
2.13% Spain Index, EWP
2.13% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
2.09% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
2.08% European VIPERs, VGK
2.08% Microcap Russell, IWC
2.08% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.06% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
2.06% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
2.03% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
2.02% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.99% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.98% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.91% Austria Index, EWO
1.87% France Index, EWQ
1.85% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.82% Mexico Index, EWW
1.81% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.76% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.74% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.73% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.69% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.68% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.68% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.66% Networking, IGN
1.62% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.60% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.58% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.57% EAFE Index, EFA
1.56% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.52% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.52% China 25 iS, FXI
1.52% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.48% South Korea Index, EWY
1.48% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.47% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.44% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.43% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.43% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.41% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.38% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.35% Dividend International, PID
1.34% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.31% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.27% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.21% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.20% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.18% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.15% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.13% Singapore Index, EWS
1.11% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.09% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.09% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.08% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.07% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.05% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.04% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.02% Australia Index, EWA
1.02% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.01% Global 100, IOO
1.00% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.00% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.99% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.99% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.99% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.99% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.98% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.93% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.91% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.89% Canada Index, EWC
0.89% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.88% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.87% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.84% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.81% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.77% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.77% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.74% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.72% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.72% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.68% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.68% Japan Index, EWJ
0.67% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.66% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.65% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.65% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.64% Energy Global, IXC
0.57% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.55% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.54% Energy DJ, IYE
0.52% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.48% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.46% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.40% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.39% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.35% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.34% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.32% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.28% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.15% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.06% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.06% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.07% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.18% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.37% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.42% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.53% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.59% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.96% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.98% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.16% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.38% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
