U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above 6-months’ highs.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell to its lowest level in more than 8 weeks, again confirming a downside correction for the short term, at least. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below 6-months’ lows.
Thursday’s stock price indexes rallied in midsession but erased gains after 2:30 p.m. ET. Volume on the NYSE rose 6% to emphasize Thursday’s downside reversal.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,514.68) finished down 0.09%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.15%, but the Dow Jones Transportation Average advanced 0.07%. By the close, the number of Declines caught up with the number of Advances.
Under the surface, many daily price momentum oscillators have been diverging bearishly while the price indexes rose to higher highs earlier in February. Momentum oscillators have remained below their 2011-2012 highs and below their highs of late January. For example, RSI(14), which eased slightly lower to 55.34 on Thursday, is down from a peak at 74.46 on 1/29/13. MACD(12,26,9) also peaked on 1/29/13, eased slightly lower on Thursday, crossed below its signal line on 2/4/13, and fell to its lowest level in more than 6 weeks on Wednesday 2/26/13. Bearishly diverging momentum is a problem because momentum is a leading indicator of price.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1525.34, high of 2/28/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1482.04, 50-day SMA
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1411.46, 200-day SMA
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT)price jumped up above its 50-day SMA on 2/25/13, thereby turning systematically neutral. TLT formed a technical base after hitting an “oversold” low at 115.51 on 2/1/13 and successfully testing that low on 2/13/13 and again on 2/20/13. Various technical oscillators showed losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences. Support 117.85, 115.51, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 120.70, 123.71, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF)price jumped up above its 50-day SMA on 2/25/13, thereby turning systematically neutral. IEF formed a technical base after hitting an “oversold” low at 105.56 on 2/1/13 and successfully testing that low 3 times. Various technical oscillators show losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences. Support 106.50, 105.56, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 107.35, 108.07, 108.15, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/25/13, thereby turning systematically neutral. Price peaked on 1/25/13 and fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks on 2/7/13.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/15/13, thereby turning systematically neutral. Absolute price fell to a lower 5-month low on 2/20/13. TIP has been in a medium-term downtrend since peaking at 123.44 on 12/6/12. TIP price is now systematically neutral–but it appears to be rapidly heading toward a “Dead Cross” bearish 50/200 SMA crossover.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above 6-months’ highs on 2/28/13, after closing above its 200-day SMA on 2/21/13. UUP turned systematically neutral on 2/7/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.15, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)price fell below 7-months’ lows on 2/26/13. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell to its lowest level in more than 8 weeks on 2/28/13, again confirming a downside correction for the short term, at least. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below 6-months’ lows on 2/20/13. Price turned systematically neutral on 2/7/13 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA appears to be heading toward a bearish “Dead Cross” below the 200-day SMA in days ahead. Longer term, SLV price has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below 6-months’ lows on 2/28/13. SLV/GLD remains below both its falling 50-day SMA and its falling 200-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC)fell below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 2/22/13. JJC remains systematically neutral, below the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. JJC has been consolidating losses between 38.99 and 51.41 since 10/5/11. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.43% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
2.38% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
2.13% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
0.97% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
2.29% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
1.81% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
0.57% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.33% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
0.73% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
1.06% , SNA , SNAP ON
0.77% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
1.25% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
2.70% , NBR , NABORS
0.76% , SVU , SUPERVALU
0.79% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
1.26% , GPS , GAP
1.32% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
0.77% , PLL , PALL
1.15% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
1.12% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
0.73% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
0.36% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
0.75% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
1.08% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
0.36% , PPL , PPL
0.57% , AMGN , AMGEN
0.96% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
0.82% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
0.76% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
0.61% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
0.69% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
0.76% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
0.97% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-16.97% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-11.40% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-9.80% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-5.20% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-3.11% , MBI , MBIA
-1.00% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.70% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
-1.82% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-8.54% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.23% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.53% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-2.20% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.75% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-3.38% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.70% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.14% , BBY , BEST BUY
-2.15% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-1.09% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.25% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
-1.23% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
-1.07% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-1.27% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-1.29% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-0.28% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-1.37% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-3.63% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.03% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.27% , ORCL , ORACLE
-0.56% , WAG , WALGREEN
-0.45% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.20% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.38% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-1.02% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.25% China 25 iS, FXI
0.74% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.67% Water Resources, PHO
0.60% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.57% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.55% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.49% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.48% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.48% Mexico Index, EWW
0.46% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.41% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.40% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.39% Japan Index, EWJ
0.35% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.32% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.31% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.27% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.23% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.22% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.21% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.19% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.19% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.18% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.18% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.16% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.16% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.14% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.14% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.11% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.11% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.10% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.09% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.09% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.07% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.07% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.07% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.07% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.05% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.04% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.03% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.03% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.03% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.03% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.03% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.02% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.02% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.01% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.03% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.03% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.03% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.03% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.03% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.04% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.05% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.07% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.08% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.09% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.09% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.09% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.09% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.10% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.10% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.11% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.11% Australia Index, EWA
-0.11% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.12% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.13% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.14% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.16% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.16% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.16% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.16% Dividend International, PID
-0.17% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.17% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.18% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.18% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.19% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.20% Global 100, IOO
-0.20% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.20% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.20% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.20% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.20% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.20% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.21% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.21% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.23% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.23% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.23% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.23% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.24% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.24% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.24% Energy Global, IXC
-0.24% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.24% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.25% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.25% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.25% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.26% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.26% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.26% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.27% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.28% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.28% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.28% Canada Index, EWC
-0.28% Germany Index, EWG
-0.28% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.29% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.30% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.30% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.31% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.33% Austria Index, EWO
-0.35% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.44% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.44% Networking, IGN
-0.45% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.47% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.49% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.51% France Index, EWQ
-0.53% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.67% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.70% Spain Index, EWP
-0.70% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.72% Italy Index, EWI
-0.73% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.74% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.75% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.79% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.00% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.02% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.02% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.27% Russia MV, RSX
-1.39% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.39% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.68% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.20% South Africa Index, EZA
-3.38% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.63% India PS, PIN
