Highlights based on trading on Tuesday, May 8, 2012:
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 3 weeks and is systematically bullish.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 7 months.
Gold and Silver both broke down below lows of the previous 4 months.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) and iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) both fell below their lows of the previous 3 years.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,363.72) fell 5.88 points or 0.43% on Tuesday. NYSE trading volume rose 20%.
SPX broke down below support at 1,357.38, the intraday low of 4/10/12. Since peaking at 1422.38 intraday on 4/2/12, SPX now has a lower high and a lower low, which is the definition of a downtrend.
SPX remained below its 50-day SMA all day on Monday and Tuesday, after breaking down below it on Friday. SPX is now down 3.90% from its closing price high of 1,419.04 on 4/2/12.
Popular momentum indicators based on the SPX daily close price have been relatively weak and are trending down bearishly. RSI(14), now at 40.91, has been relatively bearish since it closed at 75.38 on 2/9/12. Stochastic(14,3,3) fell to 20.52, down from 90.04 on 4/30/12. MACD(12,26,9) fell to -1.88, is below its Signal Line, and is down from 19.08 on 2/9/12.
With all up trendlines and the 50-day SMA now broken, probabilities appear to favor further downside risk.
The Reward to Risk Ratio for the stock market remains unattractive.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Full report available by subscription only (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1386.64, 50-day SMA
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1347.75, low of 5/8/2012
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% R of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1337.35, low of 2/10/2012
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% R of 2011-12 range
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1276.76, 200-day SMA
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% R of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% R of 2011-12 range
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 119.14, 120.91, 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 106.49 and 106.66.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) could stay longer in its neutral trading range of the past 5 months.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned down after 3/19/12 and fell below its lows of the previous 8 weeks on 5/4/12. Systematically, TIP/IEF remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 3/14/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 3 weeks on 5/8/12. UUP is systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.23, 22.47, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 5/8/12. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 17 months on 5/4/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell further below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/8/12. USO still looks bearish on the chart. Systematically, USO is neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke down below its lows of the previous 4 months and fell further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 5/8/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 5/8/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Systematically, GDX/GLD remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) broke down below its lows of the previous 4 months and fell further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 5/8/12. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/7/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. SLV/GLD remains below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below the lows of the previous 10 trading days on 5/8/12, fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12, and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.03% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
11.14% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
4.92% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
3.75% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
4.29% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
1.19% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
1.34% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
2.06% , BMS , BEMIS
1.08% , SPLS , STAPLES
1.12% , RAI , Reynolds American
1.82% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
1.11% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
1.61% , MON , MONSANTO
0.64% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
3.34% , UIS , UNISYS
1.29% , KSS , KOHLS
1.60% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
2.05% , SEE , SEALED AIR
1.50% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
1.20% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
1.01% , DHR , DANAHER
0.94% , MBI , MBIA
0.34% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
1.37% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
0.33% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.94% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
0.96% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
1.21% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
1.02% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
1.55% , WAG , WALGREEN
1.10% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
0.85% , BCR , C R BARD
0.73% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.39% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-0.58% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.16% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-4.45% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-1.52% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-0.84% , IGV , Software, IGV
-4.59% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-2.16% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-1.27% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-1.94% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.44% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
-6.07% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-1.94% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.13% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-3.77% , VFC , VF
-1.72% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-2.91% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.64% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.05% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-3.90% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-3.32% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-0.85% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-4.76% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-2.04% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.23% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-2.41% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-1.25% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-1.59% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-2.51% , NE , NOBLE
-1.75% , COH , COACH
-1.80% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-0.87% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-2.02% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.62% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.53% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.47% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.45% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.36% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.33% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.25% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.23% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.22% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.21% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.18% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.17% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.12% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.08% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.07% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.05% Water Resources, PHO
0.04% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.03% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.03% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.02% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.06% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.07% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.09% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.10% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.11% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.14% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.15% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.17% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.17% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.18% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.18% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.19% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.23% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.25% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.25% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.25% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.28% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.29% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.29% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.32% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.33% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.34% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.36% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.36% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.36% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.36% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.37% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.37% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.38% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.38% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.39% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.40% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.40% Networking, IGN
-0.40% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.40% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.40% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.41% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.41% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.43% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.44% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.44% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.48% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.48% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.48% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.49% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.50% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.50% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.50% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.53% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.55% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.55% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.55% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.56% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.57% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.58% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.58% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.58% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.59% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.59% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.62% Spain Index, EWP
-0.65% Russia MV, RSX
-0.66% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.66% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.69% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.72% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.75% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.75% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.76% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.76% Austria Index, EWO
-0.78% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.79% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.84% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.86% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.87% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.91% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.92% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.93% Global 100, IOO
-0.94% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.98% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.99% Dividend International, PID
-1.01% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.09% Energy Global, IXC
-1.19% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.20% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.20% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.24% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.26% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.26% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.34% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.35% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.44% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.48% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.54% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.54% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.56% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.57% Germany Index, EWG
-1.59% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.60% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.63% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.64% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.73% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.83% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.89% Italy Index, EWI
-1.91% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.94% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.99% Canada Index, EWC
-2.02% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.03% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.04% Australia Index, EWA
-2.04% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.07% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.10% France Index, EWQ
-2.71% Latin Am 40, ILF
-3.06% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.09% Mexico Index, EWW
-3.09% India PS, PIN
