S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price tested and held its 200-day SMA on 5/19/10. SPX is looking oversold for the short term.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.82 on 5/19/10, its highest level of the year. A high level indicates bearish sentiment.

Crude Oil futures price fell below 5-month lows on 5/19/10 but reversed to close higher. Oil remains neutral for the intermediate-term trend but is looking oversold for the short term. Longer term, Oil remains bullish.

Technology Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) crossed back below its 50-day SMA on 5/19/10 and remains below its 200-day SMA. Absolute price fell further below its 50-day SMA on 5/19/10 but remains above its 200-day SMA.

Consumer Staples Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose to a 3-month high on 5/19/10 and remains neutral.

Financial Stock Sector absolute price fell below 8-day lows intraday but closed higher on 5/19/10.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio crossed below its 50-day simple moving average on 5/19/10 thereby turning neutral again.

The Largest Cap S&P 100 absolute price fell below its 200-day SMAs on 5/19/10 and remains neutral.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.77% , PTV , PACTIV
2.01% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
2.99% , DE , DEERE & CO
4.24% , ADI , ANALOG DEVICES
3.06% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
3.20% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
3.83% , MON , MONSANTO
4.03% , ETFC.O , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
5.66% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
0.42% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.73% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
2.72% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
1.89% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
3.61% , NOVL , NOVELL
0.51% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.89% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.83% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
1.26% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.55% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.45% , PKI , PERKINELMER
0.92% , JWN , NORDSTROM
0.68% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
2.26% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
0.63% , AN , AUTONATION
1.01% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
1.59% , NVDA , NVIDIA
0.66% , ADSK , AUTODESK
1.59% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.63% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.08% , AMGN , AMGEN
0.92% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
0.71% , LLY , ELI LILLY
2.28% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
0.90% , TMK , TORCHMARK
0.02% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
1.27% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.62% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
0.83% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
1.32% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
1.16% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.25% , PZJ , SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
-6.37% , ZION , ZIONS
-1.26% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-6.06% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-4.22% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-1.67% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.45% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-4.64% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-2.44% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-7.26% , PWER , POWER ONE
-2.05% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-1.95% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-1.03% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
-1.16% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-1.93% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-2.78% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-2.77% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
-3.33% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-3.47% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-3.07% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-2.69% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-3.25% , ZEUS , Olympic Steell, ZEUS
-1.40% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.92% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
-1.56% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-2.55% , NBR , NABORS
-2.39% , EBAY , EBAY
-2.66% , DHR , DANAHER
-3.77% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.63% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-1.16% , PWY , Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
-4.32% , MBI , MBIA
-4.08% , FNM , FANNIE MAE
-0.91% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-1.87% , SPLS , STAPLES
-3.67% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-1.71% , WAT , WATERS
-2.20% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-2.00% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-0.35% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral. Support 31.03. Resistance 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 18-month highs on 4/29/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral. Support 29.60, 28.44, and 28.15. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose to a 3-month high on 5/19/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLP continues to trade between 50-day and 200-day SMAs and remains neutral. Support 26.99, 26.53, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) crossed back below its 50-day SMA on 5/19/10 and remains below its 200-day SMA. Absolute price fell further below its 50-day SMA on 5/19/10 but remains above its 200-day SMA. Support 21.25 and 20.64. Resistance 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below its 2-month lows 5/18/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLF fell below 8-day lows intraday but closed higher on 5/19/10. Support 14.64 and 14.56. Resistance 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 18-month lows on 4/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLV fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Support 29.34, 28.53, and 27.96. Resistance 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 10-month lows on 5/18/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Support 29.48. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose above 2-month highs 5/18/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLU fell back below its 200-day SMA on 5/18/10 and remains neutral. Support 28.68 and 25.76. Resistance 30.59, 30.91, 31.64 and 32.08.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 1-month lows on 5/17/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLE fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Support 52.29 and 51.34. Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell to a 12-month low on 5/6/10. EEM/SPY trend turned bearish on 4/16/10, according to strict moving average analysis. Absolute price of EEM fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 5/18/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA fell below 10-month lows on 5/6/10 and is below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio crossed below its 50-day simple moving average on 5/19/10 thereby turning neutral again. Absolute price of the NASDAQ price fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and remains neutral.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) has firmed since falling to a 5-month low on 4/14/10 and is now neutral. Absolute price of IWF lost upside momentum since 4/26/10 and remains neutral.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/18/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of IWD fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and remains neutral.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP lost upside momentum since 4/26/10 and remains neutral.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 22 months on 5/12/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of OEX fell below its 200-day SMAs on 5/19/10 and remains neutral.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains bullish. Absolute price of IWM fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) continued to move up on 5/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY lost upside momentum since 4/26/10 and remains neutral.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 5-month lows on 5/19/10 but reversed to close higher. Oil remains neutral for the intermediate-term trend but is looking oversold for the short term. Longer term, Oil remains bullish. Support 67.90 and 65.05. Resistance 78.81, 81.29, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price pulled back after setting a new all-time high at 1249.7 on 5/14/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend for the long term. Support 1184.4, 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: 1249.7.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 5/10/10 and remains bullish.

Silver/Gold Ratio turned bearish on 5/17/10 when it crossed below both 50- and 200-day SMAs, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Copper nearest futures price fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 5/17/10, again confirming a bearish trend for the short-term. Copper entered a correction phase since peaking at 3.68 on 4/12/10. Longer term, Copper remains bullish. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 2.8525 and 2.811. Resistance 3.2675, 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price jumped up to a new 12-month high of 124.16 on 5/6/10 and has been consolidating since. Support 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 124.16, and 125.03.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) lost upside momentum since 4/15/10 and remains neutral.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 but remains above its 200-day SMA and, therefore, is neutral. This implies that investors are choosing somewhat less inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP also remains bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved further above 12-month highs on 5/18/10 and remains bullish. Support 85.46, 83.07, 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 89.71 and 92.53.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 43.8% Bulls versus 24.7% Bears as of 5/192/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.77, down from 1.91 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index rose to 38.42 on 5/19/10 and to a 13-month high of 42.15 on 5/7/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index rose to 41.38 on 5/19/10 and to a 13-month high of 42.03 on 5/7/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.82 on 5/19/10, its highest level of the year. A high level indicates bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price tested and held its 200-day SMA on 5/19/10. SPX is looking oversold for the short term. The S&P fell more than 8% from its peak on 4/23/10 at 1217.28 to its low on 5/7/10 at 1,110.88, based on closing prices. Minor corrections of between 5% and 10% are typical in bull markets. Support 1100.66, 1094.15, 1065.79, 1044.50, 1029.38, 1019.95, 1012.42, and 1008.55. Resistance 1173.57, 1219.80, 1220.03 and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1100.66, low of 5/19/2010
1094.15, low of 5/7/2010
1065.79, low of 5/6/2010
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.76% Spain Index, EWP
2.35% Belgium Index, EWK
2.02% Austria Index, EWO
2.01% Italy Index, EWI
1.66% France Index, EWQ
1.57% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.26% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.13% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.92% European VIPERs, VGK
0.72% Japan Index, EWJ
0.60% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.55% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.51% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.42% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.42% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.40% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.39% EAFE Index, EFA
0.35% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.33% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.32% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.30% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.20% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.20% Germany Index, EWG
0.13% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.12% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.09% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.06% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.05% Global 100, IOO
0.05% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.05% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.00% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.00% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.00% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.03% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.09% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.10% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.17% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.20% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.23% Dividend International, PID
-0.24% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.26% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.27% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.30% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.35% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.39% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.41% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.44% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.45% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.47% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.52% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.53% Networking, IGN
-0.55% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.56% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.57% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.58% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.59% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.59% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.61% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.63% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.63% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.64% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.64% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.66% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.70% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.72% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.74% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.74% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.75% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.76% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.76% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.77% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.78% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.79% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.80% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.80% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.81% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.82% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.83% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.83% Energy Global, IXC
-0.84% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.84% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.85% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.88% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.89% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.91% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.91% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.92% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.92% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.95% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.95% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.96% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.97% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.00% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.01% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.01% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.04% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.07% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.09% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.10% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.14% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.14% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.15% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.19% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.19% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.19% Canada Index, EWC
-1.24% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.25% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.27% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.27% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.28% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.30% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.31% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.35% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.38% India PS, PIN
-1.40% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.41% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.50% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.53% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.56% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.56% Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.61% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.62% Russia MV, RSX
-1.62% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.65% Water Resources, PHO
-1.67% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.67% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.93% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.93% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.99% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.23% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.39% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.39% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.44% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-3.25% Indonesia MV, IDX
-3.47% Australia Index, EWA
-3.77% Silver Trust iS, SLV