The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,293.67) rose 0.39% on Tuesday, thereby recovering most of Friday’s loss. Prices opened higher but surrendered most of the early gain in the afternoon.

Up 14 of the past 18 trading days, SPX appears overbought and overdue for a correction. Despite this persistent price advance, SPX has relatively low upside momentum.

With the majority of investors already bullish, and therefore already invested in the market, stocks may be vulnerable to a downside shakeout.

Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrial stock sectors absolute prices rose above the highs of the previous 6 months.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) remains neutral. GLD rose above the highs of the previous 4 weeks.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/17/12, turning neutral. The Ratio remains bearishly below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 12/30/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite also is neutral, correcting and consolidating since peaking at 2887.75 on 5/2/11. The price 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/12/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/17/12, turning neutral. BKF/SPY remains bearishly below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 1/6/12, reconfirming the preexisting major bearish trend. EEM/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 years on 1/6/12, reconfirming the preexisting major bearish trend. EFA/SPY remains below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/14/11.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) has eased moderately lower since 1/4/12. Still, OEX/SPX remains above its rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back above is 50-day SMA on 1/10/12. IWM/SPY has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 7/6/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/11/11.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back below is 50-day SMA on 1/17/12. MDY/SPY has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/1/11, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 8/24/11.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 70.2% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 29.8% Bears as of 1/11/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. This represents moderately above-average bullish sentiment: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.

VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 5-months on 1/10/12, hitting 20.05 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1303.00, high of 1/17/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.72, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/13/12 and remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 1/10/12 and remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above the high of the previous 12 months on 1/13/12, thereby reconfirming its bullish major trend. UUP rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/14/11 and rose above its 200-day SMA on 11/9/11. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.55, 22.24, 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) whipsawed back below its 50-day SMA on 1/12/12, resuming its bearish major trend. DBA remains bearishly below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) has been correcting and consolidating over the past 8 trading days. USO broke out above the highs of the previous 7 months on 1/4/12, thereby confirming a major uptrend. Support 37.64, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) remains neutral. GLD rose above the highs of the previous 4 weeks on 1/17/12 and above its 200-day SMA on 1/10/12, indicating a minor uptrend. GLD remains below its 50-day SMA. Support: 158.01, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 161.65, 162.07, 165.53, 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 3-year lows on 12/19/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. SLV fell below the lows of the previous 11 months on 12/29/11. SLV crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/8/11 and crossed below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.63, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 29.84, 32.53, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, confirming a bearish trend. SLV/GLD remains bearishly below 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/10/12. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.29% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
8.04% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
2.04% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
4.67% , SEE , SEALED AIR
9.51% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
0.59% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
3.82% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
1.14% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
4.13% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
0.56% , IGN , Networking, IGN
1.91% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
3.22% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
3.66% , PIN , India PS, PIN
7.82% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
1.16% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
4.80% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
3.31% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.69% , QLGC , QLOGIC
0.31% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
1.72% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.48% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
5.89% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
3.92% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.68% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
0.51% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
4.08% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
2.20% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
0.74% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.89% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
3.04% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
0.56% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
0.97% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.00% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-13.65% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-6.80% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
-9.54% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-8.21% , C , CITIGROUP
-9.89% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-4.33% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-3.87% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-4.53% , NBR , NABORS
-1.70% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-3.27% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-2.76% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-2.00% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-0.72% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-1.79% , TLAB , TELLABS
-3.78% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-0.84% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
-0.17% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
-1.42% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-1.52% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-1.16% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-4.00% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-1.03% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-0.61% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-1.69% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-2.50% , DLX , DELUXE
-1.34% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-1.84% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-1.83% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-0.19% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.15% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.56% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
-2.17% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-0.65% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.92% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
3.66% India PS, PIN
3.31% India Earnings WTree, EPI
3.01% Germany Index, EWG
2.42% EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.40% China 25 iS, FXI
2.38% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.32% France Index, EWQ
2.25% South Africa Index, EZA
2.06% Italy Index, EWI
1.97% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.93% South Korea Index, EWY
1.93% Austria Index, EWO
1.91% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.91% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.87% European VIPERs, VGK
1.85% Sweden Index, EWD
1.83% Russia MV, RSX
1.72% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.65% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.64% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.58% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.53% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.53% Belgium Index, EWK
1.53% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.33% Spain Index, EWP
1.28% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.25% Mexico Index, EWW
1.21% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.18% EAFE Index, EFA
1.16% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.13% Singapore Index, EWS
1.08% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.07% Energy Global, IXC
1.03% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.00% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.97% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.96% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.96% Dividend International, PID
0.91% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.82% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.81% Australia Index, EWA
0.79% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.78% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.76% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.72% Global 100, IOO
0.71% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.70% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.70% Energy DJ, IYE
0.70% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.69% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.65% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.62% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.59% Canada Index, EWC
0.58% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.57% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.56% Networking, IGN
0.55% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.55% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.54% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.53% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.51% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.51% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.50% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.49% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.49% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.48% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.48% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.47% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.46% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.46% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.45% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.44% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.41% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.41% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.39% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.37% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.37% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.35% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.35% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.33% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.33% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.32% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.32% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.32% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.31% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.31% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.29% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.28% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.27% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.26% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.25% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.25% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.24% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.23% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.22% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.21% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.21% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.20% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.19% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.17% Water Resources, PHO
0.16% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.15% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.13% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.13% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.12% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.11% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.10% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.09% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.09% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.08% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.07% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.07% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.06% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.05% Japan Index, EWJ
0.04% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.03% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.03% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.01% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.00% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.00% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.02% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.04% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.04% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.08% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.09% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.19% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.19% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.20% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.25% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.25% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.43% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.60% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.65% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.76% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.15% Financial Services DJ, IYG