The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,154.23) appears to be at a critical juncture: on the lower boundary line of a Bear Flag Continuation Pattern. A break of that lower boundary line below 1146 on higher volume would confirm a new and significant down leg in this ongoing Bear Market.
Minor upside reversals (such as we saw on Tuesday and Wednesday) lure short-term traders into trying to trade a bounce. Minor price corrections against the trend are normal and expected, of course. But playing minor counter trend bounces is risky. The mood can switch from “risk on” to “risk off” overnight, leaving the too-clever trader suddenly holding the bag, as we have seen repeatedly in recent weeks.
We keep in mind that the dominant trend for the stock market remains persistently bearish. That is the bias. In a bear market, surprises come to the downside.
Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
There is a strategy that gained this month and the past 4 months, while most other strategies lost —
NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
The Colby Global Markets Report
(click here for a no-risk free trial)
Includes Top Ten ETFs and Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.35% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
2.75% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.71% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
5.15% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.94% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
2.66% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
2.64% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
5.37% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1.09% , TXN , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
1.24% , BBY , BEST BUY
1.33% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
1.03% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
0.43% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
0.12% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.15% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.25% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
0.49% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.55% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
2.14% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.04% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
1.07% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-11.75% , SWH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-2.32% , IIH , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-2.81% , ADRA , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-4.24% , JKI , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-4.07% , FEU , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-14.39% , PXJ , VeriSign Inc
-2.31% , VRSN , Broadband H, BDH
-2.32% , BDH , Technology GS, IGM
-3.21% , IGM , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-6.38% , ADRU , Italy Index, EWI
-2.84% , EWI , Global Titans, DGT
-2.63% , DGT , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-3.85% , PBJ , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.92% , TUR , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-5.70% , IYH , KROGER
-2.70% , KR , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-2.72% , PJP , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-4.21% , JKJ , Stericycle, SRCL
-2.76% , SRCL , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-5.22% , IWZ , DENTSPLY International Inc
-3.40% , XRAY , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-3.39% , JKK , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-3.40% , IYG , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
-4.65% , TMW , MCKESSON CORP
-4.26% , MCK , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-3.31% , PXN , AUTODESK
-5.26% , ADSK , Germany Index, EWG
-2.66% , EWG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-3.54% , RFG , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-3.27% , PXE , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-5.49% , PEJ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-2.66% , FEZ , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-3.53% , KLD , Interactive Intelligence ININ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.07% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.49% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.14% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.12% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.11% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.12% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.56% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.61% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.76% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.84% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.90% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.94% Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.06% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.07% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.15% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-1.46% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.50% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.56% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.58% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.70% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.74% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.77% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.82% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.89% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.99% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.03% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-2.09% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.12% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-2.13% Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.14% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-2.18% Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.22% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-2.22% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-2.27% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.28% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.33% Japan Index, EWJ
-2.33% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.39% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.41% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-2.42% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-2.42% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-2.48% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.48% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-2.51% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.55% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.56% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-2.58% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-2.59% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.60% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.60% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-2.61% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-2.61% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-2.61% Value VIPERs, VTV
-2.62% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-2.63% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-2.64% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-2.64% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.64% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-2.65% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-2.66% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.66% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.66% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-2.66% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.67% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-2.68% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-2.69% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-2.70% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-2.70% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.71% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.71% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-2.72% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-2.73% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-2.74% MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.79% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.79% Dividend International, PID
-2.81% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-2.87% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-2.88% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.89% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-2.90% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.91% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.92% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-2.95% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.95% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-2.97% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.97% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-3.00% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-3.01% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-3.01% India PS, PIN
-3.02% Financial DJ US, IYF
-3.03% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-3.07% Canada Index, EWC
-3.07% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-3.09% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-3.11% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-3.13% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-3.14% Global 100, IOO
-3.17% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-3.17% Financial SPDR, XLF
-3.17% Australia Index, EWA
-3.17% Water Resources, PHO
-3.21% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-3.22% Singapore Index, EWS
-3.23% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-3.24% Networking, IGN
-3.24% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-3.26% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-3.29% Materials SPDR, XLB
-3.31% Energy SPDR, XLE
-3.31% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-3.31% Energy DJ, IYE
-3.33% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-3.33% Energy Global, IXC
-3.35% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-3.38% Emerging Markets, EEM
-3.39% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-3.42% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-3.47% EAFE Index, EFA
-3.47% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-3.66% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-3.67% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.69% Latin Am 40, ILF
-3.80% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-3.85% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-3.94% Mexico Index, EWW
-3.95% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-4.06% Netherlands Index, EWN
-4.09% European VIPERs, VGK
-4.32% Brazil Index, EWZ
-4.34% Russia MV, RSX
-4.41% South Korea Index, EWY
-4.51% Belgium Index, EWK
-4.76% France Index, EWQ
-5.26% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-5.26% Germany Index, EWG
-5.40% Sweden Index, EWD
-5.70% Spain Index, EWP
-6.36% Austria Index, EWO
-6.38% Italy Index, EWI