iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 3/18/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 months on 3/18/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. EEM/SPY remains systematically neutral but appears to be rapidly heading toward a bearish cross of the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again. IEF formed a technical base after hitting an “oversold” low at 105.56 on 2/1/13 and successfully testing that low 3 times. Various technical oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, show losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences since 2/1/13.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 3/18/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 3/18/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. JJC remains systematically neutral, below the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. JJC has been consolidating losses between 38.99 and 51.41 since 10/5/11. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness of Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
U.S. stocks suffered their biggest losses in 3 weeks. International stocks were down more. The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,552.10) finished down 0.55%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.35%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.43%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 0.33%. Breadth was negative, with 1490 Advances and 2508 Declines. Volume on the NYSE fell 35% to a level 1% below its 200-day SMA, reflecting position adjustments due to quarterly expiration of options and futures on the third Friday of the month.
Daily price momentum oscillators have been diverging bearishly while price indexes rose to new highs in recent weeks. Momentum oscillators have remained below their 2011-2012 highs and below their highs of late January. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index, now at 62.21, peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13. MACD(12,26,9), now at 15.43, peaked at 17.88 on 1/29/13. Bearishly diverging momentum is a problem because momentum is a leading indicator of price.
The Art of Contrary Thinking has been calling for questioning overwhelming bullish sentiment. Objective investor sentiment data clearly has demonstrated extremely high degrees of optimism and bullish complacency, matching or exceeding extremes at past market price tops. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean–eventually. Sentiment extremes are a leading indicator of price.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 2/19/13, when both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages closed above their closing price highs of the previous 5 years.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY)fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 3/14/13. QQQ/SPY turned systematically bearish on 11/7/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 3/18/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. BKF/SPY remains systematically neutral. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and is systematically neutral.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 months on 3/18/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. EEM/SPY remains systematically neutral but appears to be rapidly heading toward a bearish cross of the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and is systematically neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 months on 3/13/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. EFA/SPY remains systematically neutral.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 3/15/13 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. Price rose to a new closing price high on 3/15/13, confirming its preexisting uptrend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. Price rose to a new closing price high on 3/14/13, confirming its preexisting uptrend.
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1565.15, highest close on 10/9/2007
1563.32, high of 3/14/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1545.13, low of 3/18/2013
1509.20, 50-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1424.91, 200-day SMA
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT)price remains systematically bearish below the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Various technical oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, show losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences since 2/1/13. Support 114.62, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 119.67, 120.70, 123.71, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF)price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again. IEF formed a technical base after hitting an “oversold” low at 105.56 on 2/1/13 and successfully testing that low 3 times. Various technical oscillators, such as RSI and MACD, show losses of downside momentum and bullish divergences since 2/1/13. Support 105.56, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 107.38, 108.07, 108.15, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again. JNK/LQD has been neutral for most of the past 3 years, and it seems questionable whether this long-term trend is changing in any sustainable way.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 3/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again. Longer term, TIP/IEF has been neutral for most of the past 3 years. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and currently is systematically neutral–although likely to turn bearish in days ahead.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs 6-months on 3/13/13, after closing above its 200-day SMA on 2/21/13. UUP turned systematically neutral on 2/7/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.38, 22.15, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.64, 22.78, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)price fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 3/6/13, again confirming its major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral on 2/21/13. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 32.16, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 33.75, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 2/20/13 and appears to be consolidating losses in more recent weeks. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 150.84, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 2/20/13 and appears to be consolidating losses in more recent weeks. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 27.35, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 3/18/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. SLV/GLD remains neutral below both its 50-day SMA and its 200-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC)fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 3/18/13, again confirming a medium-term downtrend. JJC remains systematically neutral, below the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. JJC has been consolidating losses between 38.99 and 51.41 since 10/5/11. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness of Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.20% , JCP , JC PENNEY
0.81% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
0.75% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.86% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
2.52% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
1.10% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
3.17% , BBY , BEST BUY
2.93% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
0.15% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.42% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.16% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.09% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.33% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.27% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
0.02% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.07% , TJX , TJX
0.11% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.40% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-5.52% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-0.48% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-3.61% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-2.38% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-1.46% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.25% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.48% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-3.19% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-0.57% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.38% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-3.61% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-1.08% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.64% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-0.64% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-0.98% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.39% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.71% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.49% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
-1.34% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.48% , IWF , Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.83% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.49% , SDY , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.73% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.66% , RSP , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.55% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.52% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
-1.57% , AON , AON
-1.80% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-0.60% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-3.85% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-0.72% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-0.91% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.90% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.76% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.58% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.54% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.33% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.27% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.24% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.22% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.16% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.15% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.15% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.09% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.03% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.02% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.00% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.11% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.15% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.19% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.20% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.21% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.22% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.24% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.27% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.27% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.29% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.30% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.32% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.35% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.37% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.37% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.38% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.39% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.40% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.41% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.42% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.43% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.43% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.43% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.45% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.45% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.45% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.46% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.48% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.48% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.48% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.48% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.48% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.49% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.49% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.50% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.50% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.51% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.52% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.52% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.52% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.54% , Networking, IGN
-0.54% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.54% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.54% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.54% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.55% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.55% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.55% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.55% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.57% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.58% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.58% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.58% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.59% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.59% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.60% , Dividend International, PID
-0.60% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.60% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.60% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.61% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.61% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.61% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.62% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.65% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.65% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.66% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.66% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.69% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.70% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.71% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.71% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.73% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.74% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.74% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.76% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.76% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.78% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.80% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.80% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.80% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.81% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.82% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.86% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.90% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.91% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.91% , Global 100, IOO
-0.92% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.92% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.95% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.97% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.98% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.01% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.08% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.10% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.11% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.11% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.11% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.11% , Energy Global, IXC
-1.13% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.13% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.14% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.23% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.25% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.27% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.28% , India PS, PIN
-1.34% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.37% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.37% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.38% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.38% , France Index, EWQ
-1.39% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.40% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.46% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.51% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.54% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.57% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.72% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.74% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.83% , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.02% , Austria Index, EWO
-2.38% , Italy Index, EWI
-2.81% , Spain Index, EWP
-3.19% , Russia MV, RSX
