Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price fell to a new 12-month low on 8/25/10 and has been in a bearish trend since peaking on 4/15/10.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell below 3-month lows in the morning of 8/25/10 before reversing to close lower. Clearly, the 3-week trend is still down. A longer time frame downside correction started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 8-week highs on 8/25/10, again confirming a significant upturn.
Copper nearest futures contract price fell below 4-week lows on 8/25/10. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about prospects for the world economy.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose above 19-month highs in the morning of 8/25/10 before reversing to close higher. The major trend remains bullish.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 3-month lows on 8/25/10, again confirming the preexisting bearish trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,055.33) price fell below 7-week lows in the morning of 8/25/10 before reversing to close higher. It was not a significant reversal, however. The short-term trend is clearly bearish since 8/9/10, and rally attempts appear unable to attract much of a following. In fact, since April 2010, the higher volume days have been down days, suggesting that supply of stocks for sale dominates buying demand for stocks. Investor confidence appears to be waning. The stock market has been consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. Without a fresh bullish catalyst, further consolidation seems likely during the vacation month of August.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.18% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
1.05% , IGN , Networking, IGN
0.74% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
1.20% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.16% , DSG , Growth Small Cap DJ, DSG
0.36% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
3.48% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
12.50% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
2.84% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
1.09% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
5.02% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.24% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.25% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
2.28% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
0.65% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
2.18% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
1.22% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
3.06% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
4.26% , GCI , GANNETT
2.96% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
2.46% , CIEN.O , CIENA
0.41% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
2.93% , GLW , CORNING
1.75% , TER , TERADYNE
0.71% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
5.53% , HAR , Harman International
0.34% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
1.34% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
2.98% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
0.53% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
1.06% , DRI , DARDEN REST
1.49% , TNB , THOMAS & BETTS
2.92% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
1.19% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
0.71% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
0.66% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.83% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
0.84% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
1.83% , TLAB , TELLABS
2.93% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.84% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-3.26% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-1.06% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-0.61% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-2.84% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-1.52% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-1.22% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
-2.13% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
-0.30% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-2.02% , LM , LEGG MASON
-1.61% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-0.52% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-1.07% , IP , INTL PAPER
-0.99% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-0.47% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-1.01% , GR , GOODRICH CORP
-1.22% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-1.01% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-1.18% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-1.16% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
-0.37% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
-1.07% , UIS , UNISYS
-2.02% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-1.14% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-0.19% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
-0.87% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-1.29% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-1.96% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-0.81% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-1.51% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-0.80% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-0.43% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-0.49% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-1.73% , CMI , CUMMINS
-0.93% , CTAS , CINTAS
-1.11% , CMA , COMERICA
-0.83% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-0.80% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-0.13% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
-0.44% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 12-month high on 8/24/10 and remains bullish: above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200. Absolute price of XLU turned bullish on 8/18/10 with a SMA bullish crossover (50>200). Support 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.64 and 32.08.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-month highs on 8/24/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Absolute price of XLP turned bearish on 8/24/10 as price closed below the 50-day SMA and the 50-day is below the 200-day SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 8-week highs on 8/20/10, confirming a bullish trend. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY turned bearish on 8/20/10 as the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.86, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 32.41, 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) crossed below the 50-day SMA 8/24/10, turning neutral. Absolute price fell further below 4-week lows on 8/24/10 and remains bearish relative to both SMAs (50 and 200). Support 27.67, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 31.15, 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell back to its 200-day SMA on 8/24/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price fell below to its 50-day SMA on 8/24/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.43 and 27.67. Resistance 32.93, 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to a 3-month low on 8/13/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK remains bearish, below both SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.38, 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE turned bearish after peaking on 4/26/10. Support 50.42, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/25/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price fell to a new 12-month low on 8/25/10 and has been in a bearish trend since peaking on 4/15/10. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 10-month high on 8/20/10, again confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM fell below both 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 8/24/10, thereby turning bearish from neutral. The price 50-day remains below the 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 6-month lows on 8/13/10, thereby confirming a significant correction to the downside.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 6/15/10. Longer term, RSP /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 11/19/08.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be consolidating losses since its low on 6/15/10. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell to 6-month lows on 8/23/10, confirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. This Ratio has been weakening since peaking on 5/17/10. Longer term, IWM/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/8/99.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 5/28/10. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract fell below 3-month lows in the morning of 8/25/10 before reversing to close lower. Clearly, the 3-week trend is still down. A longer time frame downside correction started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10. Support 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 77.03, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract rose above 8-week highs on 8/25/10, again confirming a significant upturn. Support 1210.9, 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1120.9, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9, and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8, 1263.7, and 1266.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio has been mostly neutral, consolidating losses since making a low on 2/8/10. Longer term, Silver has underperformed Gold since 4/19/06.
Copper nearest futures contract price fell below 4-week lows on 8/25/10. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about prospects for the world economy, while strength in Copper suggests confidence. Support 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.4105, 3.795 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose above 19-month highs in the morning of 8/25/10 before reversing to close higher. The major trend remains bullish. Support 133.22, 130.29, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 3-month lows on 8/25/10, again confirming the preexisting bearish trend. The Ratio has been heading lower since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and Junk outperforming.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell further below 15-month lows on 8/24/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose above 4-week highs again on 8/24/10, confirming a short-term correction to the upside. The larger time frames appear uncertain, however. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 83.64, 85.36, 86.71, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 33.3% Bulls versus 31.21% Bears as of 8/25/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1. 07, down from 1. 18 the previous week. This ratio hit a low at 0.94 on 7/14/10, which was the lowest since 0.82 on 4/1/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Minor Ripple to the downside within a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. Over the past 2 weeks, both Averages have been giving back most of the gains made in July. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,055.33) price fell below 7-week lows in the morning of 8/25/10 before reversing to close higher. It was not a significant reversal, however. The short-term trend is clearly bearish since 8/9/10, and rally attempts appear unable to attract much of a following. In fact, since April 2010, the higher volume days have been down days, suggesting that supply of stocks for sale dominates buying demand for stocks. Investor confidence appears to be waning. The stock market has been consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. Without a fresh bullish catalyst, further consolidation seems likely during the vacation month of August.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
1071.07, Gann 50.0% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1069.49, low of 8/16/10
1060.21, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2010 range
1056.88, low of 7/20/10
1056.87, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Aug. 2010 range
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1039.83, low of 8/25/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.06% Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.94% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.89% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.84% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.69% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.63% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.59% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.56% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.51% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.43% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.38% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.36% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.34% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.30% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.30% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.24% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.23% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.20% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.18% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.16% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.08% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.05% Networking, IGN
1.03% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.02% Water Resources, PHO
0.99% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.96% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.92% Singapore Index, EWS
0.83% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.83% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.82% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.82% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.80% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.79% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.76% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.66% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.66% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.65% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.65% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.63% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.62% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.62% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.61% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.58% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.55% Canada Index, EWC
0.54% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.50% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.50% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.49% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.47% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.46% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.43% Belgium Index, EWK
0.43% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.42% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.41% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.40% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.39% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.39% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.38% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.38% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.38% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.37% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.35% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.34% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.33% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.32% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.31% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.30% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.30% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.30% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.30% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.29% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.29% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.28% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.26% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.23% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.23% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.22% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.21% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.20% Italy Index, EWI
0.19% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.16% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.13% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.13% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.10% EAFE Index, EFA
0.10% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.07% Global 100, IOO
0.05% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.04% Dividend International, PID
0.04% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.04% Mexico Index, EWW
0.03% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.00% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.00% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.00% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.01% Energy Global, IXC
-0.02% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.02% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.04% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.07% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.08% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.08% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.09% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.09% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.10% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.10% Russia MV, RSX
-0.13% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.13% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.16% Germany Index, EWG
-0.17% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.17% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.18% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.19% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.20% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.21% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.21% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.23% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.24% France Index, EWQ
-0.25% Australia Index, EWA
-0.27% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.31% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.31% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.32% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.32% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.44% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.45% India PS, PIN
-0.45% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.47% Spain Index, EWP
-0.47% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.49% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.51% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.52% Austria Index, EWO
-0.65% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.89% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.98% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.43% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.44% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.52% Taiwan Index, EWT
