iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF /SPY) fell below 29-month lows on 9/21/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend. This basket of the stocks of Brazil, Russia, India and China is in a relatively bearish major trend.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 29-month lows on 9/21/11, reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. Absolute price broke down below 14-month lows on 9/21/11 and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.
China ETFs reconfirmed bearish major trends: FXI fell below 28-month lows and PGJ fell below 16-month lows.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price rose above the highs of the previous 2 years on 9/21/11, reconfirming a major uptrend.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price rose above all-time highs on 9/21/11, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 9/21/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) fell below the lows of the previous 12-months. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,166.76) fell 35.33 points or 2.94% on Wednesday, September 21, 2011.
SPX fell below the lows of the previous 4 trading days, confirming bearish price momentum for the short term.
Volume on the NYSE rose 28%, confirming bearish volume momentum.
My analysis continues to indicate that downside risks remain high for global stock markets. I expect world stock markets to continue to move lower–probably substantially lower.
Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
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Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
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Stock Market Indicators
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above previous 10-year highs on 9/21/11 reconfirming a long-term uptrend. This means a long NASDAQ Composite and short S&P 500 hedge has been a winning trade. NASDAQ absolute price turned bearish, falling below 50-day and 200-day SMAs.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF /SPY) fell below 29-month lows on 9/21/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend. This basket of the stocks of Brazil, Russia, India and China is in a relatively bearish major trend.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 29-month lows on 9/21/11, reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. Absolute price broke down below 14-month lows on 9/21/11and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 7-year lows on 9/19/11, reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. Absolute price broke down below 14-month lows on 9/12/11 and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 9/21/11, which is a RELATIVELY bullish sign for the short term trend. Longer term, OEX/SPX fell below 28-year lows on 5/26/11, reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below 12-month lows on 9/21/11, reconfirming a major downtrend. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11, broke down below 13-month lows on 8/8/11, and remains below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2-months on 9/21/11, confirming a bearish minor trend. MDY/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 10-months on 8/8/11, confirming a bearish major trend.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 37.6% Bulls versus 39.8% Bears as of 9/21/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio was 0.94, up from 0.87, the previous week. The Bull/Bear Ratio is now the lowest since August, 2010, more than 1 standard deviation below the 20-year average. The 20-year median is 1.56 and the mean is 1.64.
VIX Fear Index remains stuck in its 5-week, relatively high level trading range, from a low of 30.16 to a high of 48.00. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,166.76) fell 35.33 points or 2.94% on Wednesday, September 21, 2011.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1234.56, low of 8/3/11
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1230.71, high of 8/31/11
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1136.07, low of 9/12/2010
1101.54, low of 8/9/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price rose above the highs of the previous 2 years on 9/21/11, reconfirming a major uptrend. Support 111.25, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 120.45 and 123.15.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price rose above all-time highs on 9/21/11, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Many investors had anticipated “Operation Twist”, which was announced after the Fed meeting on 9/21/11. Support 103.55, 102.50, and 102.38. Resistance none.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains bearish according to my objective 50/200 SMA system. Short term, JNK/LQD fell below 4-week lows on 9/9/11. Long term, JNK/LQD fell below 2-year lows on 8/10/11.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) remains bearish according to my objective 50/200 SMA system. TIP/IEF has been weak since peaking on 4/8/11 and fell below 11-month lows on 9/19/11. This bearish trend means that fixed-income investors have been choosing the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. So, fixed-income investors may be more worried about deflation than inflation.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above the highs of the previous 6 trading days on 9/21/11, confirming renewed upside momentum. UUP rose above the highs of the previous 6 months on 9/12/11, confirming a major price uptrend. Support 21.56, 21.42, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.21, and 22.63.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 9/21/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price broke down from a Bearish Rising Wedge pattern on 9/19/11, thereby signaling renewed bearish momentum. USO fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 8/9/11, confirming a major downtrend. Support 33.55, 33.25, 32.60, 31.45, 30.31, 26.28, 22.74. Resistance 35.08, 35.14, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price continued to consolidate short-term losses on 9/21/11, suggesting no change in the minor short-term down trend. Gold rose above all-time highs on 9/6/11, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Although minor price consolidations and corrections are to be expected in any trend, the dominant trend remains persistently bullish. In a world of too much debt, weak currencies, and self-serving politicians running amok, investors around the globe seek the safety of gold as the only forever-true money. Support: 172.20, 165.88, 159.68, 156.11, 154.10, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 177.40, 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) whipsawed back above its falling 50-day SMA on 9/16/11 and remains below its falling 200-day SMA. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, confirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Absolute price of GDX is bullish, just not as bullish as GLD; investors prefer Gold bullion over Gold Miners.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price continued to consolidate short-term losses on 9/21/11, suggesting no change in the minor short-term down trend. SLV fell back below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/11 and, therefore, turned neutral again according to my objective 50/200 SMA system. Support 36.04, 35.29, 34.02, and 31.97. Resistance: 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) fell below the lows of the previous 12-months on 9/21/11, reconfirming a major price downtrend. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook, while strength in Copper suggests confidence.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
12.15% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
6.72% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
3.43% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
3.31% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
2.53% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
1.76% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
4.20% , ORCL , ORACLE
5.14% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
6.12% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.69% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
1.60% , ADSK , AUTODESK
3.01% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
2.14% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
3.41% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.53% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
0.48% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
1.19% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
1.01% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
0.50% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
0.32% , NSM , NATL SEMICONDUCT
0.66% , PEP , PEPSICO
1.79% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.16% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.29% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
0.17% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.41% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
0.78% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
0.15% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.23% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
0.05% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
0.15% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-5.55% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-4.75% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
-4.05% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-4.35% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-8.31% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
-8.11% , CSX , CSX
-4.21% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-2.87% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-3.59% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-4.15% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-4.83% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-6.33% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-6.01% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
-7.54% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-3.75% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-12.82% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-2.52% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-3.30% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-5.33% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.57% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-1.51% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-8.44% , DLX , DELUXE
-8.52% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-3.56% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-2.93% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-3.79% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-4.05% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-7.99% , A , AGILENT TECH
-6.47% , KEY , KEYCORP
-7.59% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-3.20% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-4.40% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
-5.36% , OIH , Oil Services H, OIH
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.31% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.43% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.23% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.17% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.16% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.15% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.11% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.51% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.70% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.79% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.86% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.87% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.92% Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.25% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.25% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.28% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.36% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.43% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.48% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.49% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.51% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.53% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.53% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.68% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.74% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.74% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.81% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.84% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.94% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.98% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.98% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-2.01% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.04% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.06% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-2.10% Taiwan Index, EWT
-2.10% Malaysia Index, EWM
-2.17% Austria Index, EWO
-2.18% India PS, PIN
-2.19% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.28% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-2.34% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-2.42% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.49% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.57% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-2.62% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-2.65% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-2.65% Dividend International, PID
-2.69% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-2.70% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-2.70% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-2.73% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.77% Networking, IGN
-2.78% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.79% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.81% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-2.95% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-2.98% EAFE Index, EFA
-3.00% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-3.01% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-3.04% Italy Index, EWI
-3.05% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-3.06% France Index, EWQ
-3.07% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-3.09% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-3.09% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-3.10% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-3.11% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.13% Microcap Russell, IWC
-3.13% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-3.14% Global 100, IOO
-3.14% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-3.17% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-3.22% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-3.23% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-3.23% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-3.25% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-3.27% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-3.29% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-3.30% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.34% Value VIPERs, VTV
-3.36% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-3.43% European VIPERs, VGK
-3.46% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-3.49% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-3.51% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-3.54% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-3.55% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-3.56% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-3.56% Water Resources, PHO
-3.56% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-3.56% Canada Index, EWC
-3.57% South Korea Index, EWY
-3.59% MidCap Russell, IWR
-3.61% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-3.63% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-3.65% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-3.65% Latin Am 40, ILF
-3.65% Spain Index, EWP
-3.65% Australia Index, EWA
-3.68% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-3.70% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-3.71% Mexico Index, EWW
-3.71% Emerging Markets, EEM
-3.74% Energy Global, IXC
-3.74% Germany Index, EWG
-3.75% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-3.79% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-3.81% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-3.86% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-3.88% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-3.91% Russia MV, RSX
-3.95% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.96% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-3.99% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-4.05% Energy DJ, IYE
-4.08% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-4.11% Singapore Index, EWS
-4.12% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-4.12% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-4.13% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-4.13% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-4.15% Sweden Index, EWD
-4.15% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-4.16% Energy SPDR, XLE
-4.37% Brazil Index, EWZ
-4.40% China 25 iS, FXI
-4.42% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-4.52% Materials SPDR, XLB
-4.78% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-4.80% South Africa Index, EZA
-4.83% Financial DJ US, IYF
-4.95% Financial SPDR, XLF
-4.95% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-5.23% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-5.28% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-5.28% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-5.29% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-5.33% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-5.43% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-5.87% Indonesia MV, IDX
